RBD opens the WNBA betting season with a look back at last year’s results before finding an Opening Day angle.
Connecticut Sun at New York Liberty
WNBA Prediction for Opening Day
On Friday, May 8th, the WNBA season begins.
As always, before I look ahead to this year, I look behind to last year to see how I did.
Did I Beat the Books?
Did I make any notes to help me this season?
I checked my logbook for the results and see that it wasn’t a winning campaign for me last season. I finished at -5.5 units.
What happened, what led to the loss?
A quick look at my database shows part of the reason.
I had some good stats to work with, I just didn’t pick and choose properly on which ones to bet.
Here are the records for the four main plays that I use.
WF1 was 23-17, 10-5 on Hm teams, 13-12 Rd.
WF2 was 20-15, 9-6 on HM teams, 11-9 Rd.
T1 was 4-5 on Overs, 9-13 on Unders.
T2 was 11-7 on Overs, 5-4 on Unders.
Most of those records are hovering near the .500 mark, which means they had no value for me to play ON or Fade
But I had three that were a solid play ON (WF1 Hm, WF2 Hm, and T2 Overs) and one that was a solid Fade AGAINST (T1 unders.)
I finished the previous season, my first WNBA season here at PredictEm, at +2 units.
So in addition to my standard goals for all sports (Don’t Lose Money, Finish with a Profit – ANY profit, Have Fun!) I have an additional goal this year, to finish at +4 units or better to put me back on the plus side of the ledger for my overall record.
I’m also lowering the parameters for what qualifies as a play so that hopefully I can squeeze out a few more picks.
It’ll take about two weeks to gather enough data to start making bets, but I’m not waiting two weeks to have some action. In fact, I’m not waiting two days. It’s opening day and I want action so today, without any of my models to depend on, I’m doing what most sports bettors do – looking at the lines and trying to see if one seems to be a bit off.
I do have one game that qualifies today for one of my models. WF1 says Seattle should be the Fav. I’m not sure I trust Golden State as Rd Favs, and I have no data on WF1 for this season.
The Valkyries were 2-1 ATS as Rd Favs last season. They split the season series with Seattle 2-2, SU but lost both games that were played in Seattle.
Looking at rosters I see that the Storm lost three of their best players, Nneka Ogwumike, Skylar Diggins-Smith, and Gabby Williams.
The Valkyries opened at -2 and have been bet all the way up to -5′.
I’ll lay off that one.
In other action tonight, Washington visits one of the leagues two expansion teams, the stupidly named Toronto Tempo.
Strangely enough, the expansion team opened as a -2′ Fav but smart (I think) money came in on the Mystics and we have a Flip Flop Fav, Washington is now -2′.
I wish I had stats from last season on the ATS record of games where the opening Dog closes the Fav but I don’t. But I will start keeping them today and track it throughout the season to see if we find an edge to bet on.
So if I’m going to have action tonight that leaves only one more game to look at.
NY opened as -17 point Favorites to the visiting Connecticut Sun.
The line has been bet all the way down to -10.
Part of the reason is Sabrina Ionescu is out.
Or maybe it’s because New York was 4-12 as Double Digit Favs last season.
The Liberty have one of the best lineups in the WNBA, which is why they for open the season atop the odds board to win the championship, at a very low price of just +260, followed by the Las Vegas Aces at +400, and the Caitlin’s at +500.
They not only kept all their core stars intact – Stewie, Sabrina, and Jonquel – they added Satou Sabally to the mix (ruled out for tonight’s game.)
And, after dumping head coach Sandy Brondello, they added a new head coach, Chris DeMarco, who spent his last 14 years coaching a real basketball team as an assistant with the Golden State Warriors.
The Sun are playing their last season in Connecticut, next year they’ll be playing in Houston. Attendance at WNBA games isn’t as bad as the UFL but it’s not that far off either (especially if the Caitlin’s aren’t in town, though the league and its players hate to admit that.)
I can’t imagine the locals turning out to support a team that won’t be there next year, so that has to be factored into handicapping Connecticut at home this season.
The Sun lost starters Marina Mabry and Tina Charles, and in subtraction-by-addition they brought in a far-past-his-prime Brittney Griner.
This team won only 11 games last season and they’ll be lucky to get that many this year.
The opening line of -17 has been pounded all week long and it’s now down to -9′ some houses. If you like New York bet them know because a buyback is sure to happen later today.
So I’m looking at a lousy team facing a very good team. The very good team is missing one of their star shooters so I’m hoping for a lower score from them.
And there’s this – DeMarcos is known for being a defense-minded specialist. I think that on opening night, in front of the home crowd, the new coach’s defense holds a young and basically talentless Connecticut squad to under 74′ points tonight.
My play:
Conn Team Total Un 74′.
