RBD takes Toronto with the points on the road against Indiana in tonight’s WNBA matchup, backed by team-specific edges in the Wrong Favorite handicapping model.
Toronto Tempo at Indiana Fever
A Pick on the Spread
With only one game on the card tonight I didn’t think I would have a play but I do.
Toronto qualifies for my Wrong Favorite system, WF2.
WF2 has an overall record of 8-9, a losing proposition but it’s 7-5 in Rd games.
That’s a slight winning edge based on stats for the entire league, but when I dig deeper into subcategories, team specific, I see something that I like.
Toronto has been in this spot as the WF twice this season. Their record is 2-0.
AND…
Indiana has twice this season been the team that the books deemed the Favorite in this WF1 spot.
Their record is 0-2.
So I have a slight edge on the overall record for all teams, and two nice edges when I get team specific (based on how individual teams perform when they’re in this spot.)
Both teams are eliminated from the Commissioner’s Cup so there’s no added handicapping factor to be considered there.
I Faded the Caitlin’s back on June 4th and got tagged with a loss when Atlanta came out flat on the Rd.
One of the main reasons I used the play is the turmoil in the Indiana locker room caused by the bad vibes between Clark and head coach White, and trade talks involving the team’s best player.
Since that game Indiana has won three of their last four, but the wins came against Connecticut, Washington, and Chicago, three of the worst five teams in the league, all with losing records.
Toronto is 7-7 overall and has an ATS record of 8-6.
The line opened at Indy -7′ and that’s where it’s sitting this morning. I don’t have a strong feel for anticipating line movement but I lean towards it moving against Indiana and against my favor, so I’m buying it now.
NBA Season Recap
I shut down my NBA season back in May, deciding to lock up a nice profit for the year.
But I saw a game last week that I couldn’t resist due to strong stats from a couple of my handicapping models. On June 4th I took NY/Indiana Un 217 and despite the high scoring first half I survived with a win.
The NBA season is finished, and so is my bookie, destroyed by my 41-26 campaign.
That’s 61% on almost 70 picks given out.
NEXT!
UFL Season Recap
Like the NBA, the UFL season also ended last week. And I NAILED my analysis on the championship game.
I bought the game early, taking +1′ with the Louisville Kings. Good move, because by game time the Kings were favored by as many as -2.
They won SU.
It was a big win for me because I was 9-9 going into the final game. I finished the year at 10-9, once again Beating the Books.
It wasn’t by much but remember the goals:
1) Do not lose money.
2) Finish with a profit – ANY profit.
It’s estimated that 95% of all sports bettors lose, so your primary goal should always be in line with number one above – Don’t lose money.
And ANY profit is a good profit.
Now it’s time to focus all the time I dedicate to handicapping to getting my WNBA season in order, before the majority of my handicapping time will switch to my favorite and most profitable sport – college football.
Let the countdown begin, just 73 days to go until North Carolina kicks off against TCU.
My play:
Toronto +7′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 7-10
Review:
Got a much needed win, and a little bit of revenge, when the Mystics (who blew an 18 point 4th quarter lead in my previous pick, tagging me with a loss by the hook) lost to the Liberty.
It was another win for the Commissioner’s Cup Double Digit Hm Fav spot. The spot is now 5-1 this season.
In 2024, Double Digit Favs in Commissioner’s Cup games were 4-1 ATS at Hm.
Last season, 2025, Double Digit Favs in Commissioner’s Cup games were 6-2 ATS at Hm.
That’s a combined 10-3.
Add this year’s record and you’re at 15-4, 79%.
You can debate whether or not teams have extra incentive to score more points, and play their starters more than their normal average minutes per game, because of the tiebreakers for the Commissioner’s Cup.
But you can’t debate the effectiveness of the play I detailed at the very beginning of Cup play this year. There’s no debating 79%.
Write it down. Use it next year.
Final note – the WNBA continues to crack me up.
I don’t think I’ve ever watched a game and didn’t laugh at least two or three times.
In the last game I bet and recommended, Washington at New York, there was a comical play where the Liberty’s Laney-Hamilton sent a bounce pass to Breanna Stewart, who was standing near the sidelines.
The pass went through her legs and into the fans in the front row seats.
It wasn’t like Laney was only two or three feet away and Stewie had no time to react.
The pass came from 10 ft away yet STILL somehow managed to go between Stewie’s legs, providing yet another laugh for this viewer.
