RBD takes the Over in tonight’s Toronto Tempo at Connecticut Sun matchup, backed by a perfect team-specific record in the T1 model and two of the worst defenses in the WNBA.
Toronto Tempo at Connecticut Sun
A Pick on the Total
How bad are the Connecticut Sun?
This bad – they’re Underdogs today to the expansion Tempo, at home in Connecticut.
Nobody expected much from the Sun this season. They’re light on talent and it’s their final season in Connecticut which means they’re not going to get much fan support from the people they’re abandoning. But they’re worse than expected, with just 2 wins against 14 losses, residing all by their lonesome in the basement of the standings.
Aside from a lack of talent and the relocating factor, their management hasn’t helped the cause. What GM in his right mind gives a seven figure one-year contract to washed up and often injured (she’s out again today) Brittney Griner??!!
Though the game has no interest as a fan, I do have some action lined up on the total, which gives me a reason for watching this one.
One of my handicapping models for choosing totals, T1, says the game goes Over.
T1 has a record of 9-7, 56%, all teams. That’s two points under the cutoff line I usually use for making bets but when I look at the subcategory of Team Specific numbers I get a more favorable result.
Toronto has been in the T1 Over spot once already this season and has a record of 1-0.
Connecticut has been in the spot three times and is a perfect 3-0.
I have to ride with numbers like those.
For standard stats, Toronto is 10-5 Ov/Un and Connecticut is 9-7, so I have edges in both of those categories, too.
These two have met previously once this season and the game went Over. The total was 166 and the game landed on 208.
That game went into overtime but even if you subtract the 16 points scored in OT the game still sailed over by 26 points.
Griner was also out for that game too, so her absence today makes no difference.
Looking at the defenses, these two take up two of the three bottom spots in the league for PPG allowed.
Connecticut is ranked in 13th place (89 PPG), two above last place Toronto (91 PPG.)
Today’s total opened at 167′ and is already rising. The 167′ it’s still available at most books though so I’m grabbing it now.
My play:
Tor/Con Ov 167′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 7-11
Review:
Still struggling to find my footing this WNBA season. In my last play I took a loss with Toronto as Dogs in Indiana, putting me back at four games under .500. Plenty of time to turn it around, but I need to start heading in the right direction.
