Orioles vs. Jays Value Play 5/21/23

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Date: Sunday, May 21st, 1:37 ET
Location: Rogers Centre
TV: SNET
Money Line: Orioles +164/Blue Jays -195
Total Line: 8.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Orioles on Sunday, May 21st at Rogers Centre. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Orioles vs. Blue Jays Projected Lineup

	Batting Order	Position
Cedric Mullins	1	CF
Adley Rutschman	2	C
Anthony Santander	3	RF
Ryan Mountcastle	4	1B
Gunnar Henderson	5	SS
Austin Hays	6	LF
Adam Frazier	7	2B
Jorge Mateo	8	SS
Terrin Vavra	9	2B
Dean Kremer	–	RP




	Batting Order	Position
George Springer	1	CF
Bo Bichette	2	SS
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	3	1B
Daulton Varsho	4	RF
Matt Chapman	5	3B
Whit Merrifield	6	2B
Brandon Belt	7	1B
Danny Jansen	8	C
Kevin Kiermaier	9	CF
Kevin Gausman	–	SP




Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Baltimore Orioles: 30-16 SU / OU 23-20 / Runline 29-17
Toronto Blue Jays: 25-21 SU / OU 21-23 / Runline 22-24

On a record of 30-16, the Orioles are 2nd in the AL East. Currently, they are 3.5 games out of the division lead. Against the Blue Jays, they will be seeking their 3rd straight win. On the road, they have a record of 15-8 while going 15-8 at home. Baltimore’s overall series record is 10-3.

• The Orioles have covered the runline in two straight games and have a season-long run margin of 0.8.
• The Orioles have been favored in 52.2% of their games and have runline records of 12-11 and 17-6 at home and on the road, respectively
• The over has hit in 53% of the Orioles’ 46 games at 23-20.

If the Blue Jays are going to climb out of last place in the AL East, they will need to turn things around with a win over the Orioles. Heading into the game, the Blue Jays have lost three straight games and stand with an overall record of 25-21. On the road, the Blue Jays are 12-13 and 13-8 at home. The team’s overall series record is 9-5.

• The Blue Jays have three straight losses vs. the runline and have a season-long run margin of 0.3.
• The Blue Jays have been favored in 71.7% of their games and have runline records of 9-12 and 13-12 at home and on the road, respectively
• So far, the Blue Jays have an over/under record of just 21-23.

Pitching Matchup




Baltimore is looking to Dean Kremer to deliver yet another impressive performance, given he has earned a win in three consecutive games. So far he has an ERA of 4.94 and record of 5-1. Throughout the season, he has accumulated 36 strikeouts and has a batting average allowed of .287. In terms of slugging percentage, teams have SLG of .452 vs. Kremer.

Kremer picked up the win in his most recent outing, as he gave up three earned runs and six hits across 5 2/3 innings vs. the Angels. The Orioles won the game by a score of 7-3.




Coming in with a record of 2-3, Kevin Gausman will get the start for the Blue Jays. Through nine appearances, he has an ERA of 3.27 and batting average allowed of .239. Opponents have walked nine times vs. Gausman along with 77 strikeouts. Gausman’s WHIP stands at 1.09 with a SLG allowed of .366.

Kevin Gausman earned a quality start in his most recent outing, pitching seven innings and giving up three runs. Despite his solid performance, the Blue Jays were unable to beat the Yankees and lost by a score of 6-3.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays Offense Outlook

For the season, the Orioles are one of the top home runs hitting teams in the league with a total of 58 home runs (10th). So far, Baltimore is averaging 5.0 runs per game with a collective batting average of .253. When playing at home, the Orioles have a slugging percentage of .427 compared to .417 at home.

Baltimore Orioles Top Hitters On The Road




Baltimore Orioles Top Hitters: Last Five Games




This season, Toronto is ranked 13th in the league in runs scored at 4.6 runs per contest. So far, they are near the middle of the pack in home runs, hitting a combined 49 long balls. The team’s current batting average of .256 is 12th in the league. On the road, they are 7th in batting average compared to 10th at home.

Toronto Blue Jays Top Hitters vs. Righties




Toronto Blue Jays Top Hitters: Last Five Games




Free MLB Pick

I believe it’s worth taking a chance on the Baltimore Orioles, especially considering the favorable odds. Their starting pitcher, Dean Kremer, has been performing well in his last three starts, consistently allowing three or fewer runs. He has even recorded a quality start in two of those outings. In his three starts against the Toronto Blue Jays, Kremer has performed decently, and the Orioles have actually won both of his starts at the Rogers Centre.

On the other side, the Blue Jays have Kevin Gausman as their starting pitcher. Gausman has had brilliant moments this season, particularly when playing at home, boasting a low 0.86 walks plus hits per innings pitched (WHIP) and an impressive 2.05 earned run average (ERA) in three home starts. However, he has struggled against the Orioles roster as a whole, with an elevated batting average of .360 over 86 at-bats. It’s important to note that these numbers are skewed by Adam Frazier’s outstanding performance with a .400 average in 35 at-bats.

Considering the current form of both teams, the Orioles seem to have the edge. This is an important aspect to consider when betting on Major League Baseball games. Therefore, it would be a wise decision to bet on the Baltimore Orioles, who are currently listed at +171 odds.