Dallas Mavericks (32-30 SU, 31-29 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (35-25 SU, 28-31 ATS)

When: Wednesday, March 5th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: FDSW

Point Spread: Dal +10.5/Mil -10.5

Total: 225.5

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +357/-467

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Anthony Davis (Out) Adductor
• Kyrie Irving (Out) Knee
• Dante Exum (Out) Foot
• P.J. Washington (Out) Ankle
• Daniel Gafford (Out) Knee
• Caleb Martin (Doubtful) Hip
• Jaden Hardy (Out) Ankle
• Dereck Lively II (Out) Ankle

Bucks

• Bobby Portis (Out) Suspension
• Pat Connaughton (Questionable) Calf
• Pete Nance (Questionable) Ankle

At 8:00 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks (-467) will host the Dallas Mavericks (+357) in a non-conference matchup. The over/under line for this game is 225.5 points.

The Bucks (-10.5) are currently on a three-game winning streak and sit fourth in the Eastern Conference. The Mavericks (+10.5) have lost two straight and are 10th in the Western Conference.

Recent Form

The Mavericks fell to 32-30 on the season after a 122-98 home loss to the Kings on Monday. Dallas entered the game as +2 point underdogs but failed to cover the spread, losing by 24 points. The combined score of 220 points fell short of the 231.5 O/U line.

A key moment came when the Kings went on a 16-0 run, turning a 65-54 deficit into a 70-65 lead. Dallas struggled in the 3rd quarter, being outscored 34-16, before winning the 4th quarter 32-28.

The Bucks improved to 35-25 on the season with a 127-121 win over the Hawks on Tuesday. Milwaukee was favored by 5 points and covered the spread, while the total of 248 points narrowly went over the pre-game line of 244.

After the Hawks went on a 10-0 run early, the Bucks found themselves trailing 45-39. Milwaukee responded by outscoring Atlanta 35-26 in the 4th quarter to seal the win.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 4-0-1 in the previous five matchups vs Dallas. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +9 points per game in favor of the Bucks. Over the course of these games, they averaged 239 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.

Analysis

In their 122-98 loss to the Kings, the Mavericks struggled offensively, hitting just seven threes at a 26.9% clip. Overall, they shot 45.5% from the field.

Kai Jones led Dallas with 21 points and eight rebounds, shooting 90% from the floor. Naji Marshall added 18 points and six assists, scoring 8 points in the 3rd quarter.

Defensively, the Mavericks struggled against the Kings, giving up 122 points on 52% shooting. Dallas allowed 27 points in the 1st quarter, 33 in the 2nd, 34 in the 3rd, and 28 in the 4th.

The Mavericks also had trouble defending the three-point line, where the Kings hit 16 threes at a 47% clip. Dallas sent Sacramento to the line 12 times, and the Kings converted all their free throws. The Mavericks recorded five steals and one block in the game.

Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with a triple-double, posting 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists in their 127-121 win over the Hawks. Damian Lillard added 23 points, with 12 coming in the opening quarter, while Kyle Kuzma contributed 17 points and 10 rebounds, scoring 7 points in the 4th quarter.

Milwaukee shot 51% from the field but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 29.7% of their threes, making 11 in total. Kevin Porter was key in the final period, scoring 12 of his 15 points in the 4th quarter.

Defensively, the Bucks gave up 33 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters but tightened things up in the 2nd half, allowing 29 points in the 3rd and 26 in the 4th to secure the win. Overall, Milwaukee allowed the Hawks to shoot 45% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Bucks allowed 16 threes on 39% shooting. Atlanta also went 13/17 from the free-throw line. The Bucks finished with 42 defensive rebounds, while the Hawks grabbed 11 offensive boards. Milwaukee added eight steals and one block.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Dallas has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 109 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• The Bucks are 3-2 ATS in their last home games and 4-1 straight-up.
• As the betting underdog, the Mavericks have an ATS mark of just 2-3 in their last five games. Dallas posted a straight-up mark of 1-4 in these matchups.
• As the betting favorite, the Bucks have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups their straight-up record was 4-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This is one game where everyone is going to be rushing to take the Bucks, as the Mavericks are completely decimated by injuries. However, I could see Milwaukee being careful with the workload of Giannis, Lillard, and even Brook Lopez. Suddenly, this could become a much more evenly matched game. I think Dallas hangs around tonight, and I’m taking them +10.5.