Race: Challenge Round 2 – Grant Park 165
Date: Sunday, July 6, 2025
Track: Chicago Street Race
Time: 2pm ET
Channel: TNT Sports
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Chase Elliott beat a dominating Brad Keselowski to take the win at a crash fest Atlanta race over the weekend. It was a last-lap pass that secured the win for Elliott, a win that was much needed after a 44-race winless drought for the popular #9 driver. For Elliott, it secures his place in the playoffs, although he has been consistent enough to sit securely in the points at 5th or better for the better part of the season so far. For Keselowski, it was disappointment in not being able to secure that playoff berth after a very well-run race.
Brad had no chance at the push that Bowman gave to Elliott, ultimately giving him the advantage on that last lap. He gave it everything he had, but at tracks like Atlanta, teammates and friends are crucial in moments like those. Brad’s had a tough season, with this runner-up finish bolstering him up 3 places to 27th. He really needed the win to secure his playoff chances, so he’s going to have to fight hard in the next few weeks. Keselowski finished ahead of Bowman, followed by Tyler Reddick and Erik Jones for the top 5 positions. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Zane Smith, Ty Dillon, Chris Buescher, and Carson Hocevar rallied for the remainder of the top 10 spots.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, drivers and teams are headed to Chicago for the street race. This should be interesting. This race is pretty cool because it’s outside of the traditional road courses. This is literally a race on the shut-down streets of Chicago. The asphalt course is 2.140 miles with 12 total turns. This will be only the third race for the Cup Series on this track. We learned that rain makes things harder during the inaugural race, and just because you’re a great road course racer doesn’t mean you’re automatically going to win all of the races, as validated by Shane van Gisbergen’s 2024 finish.
Odds and Value Picks
No offense to van Gisbergen, as he just had a rough day last year, and he won the inaugural race. The man is talented and will bring much to the table this weekend. Let’s take a look at your potential winners with odds provided by Bovada:
Winner: Chase Elliott (+1100)
Elliott is sitting 3rd currently in the odds, but the guy has better finishes than Larson on average. Consistency is key, and Elliott is the king. Best finish? Third. Worst finish? Twenty-first. Average finish? Twelfth. Who knows. Two races don’t give us enough data to prove anything, but Elliott’s finishes this year give us enough.
Mid-Range Pick: Austin Cindric (+4000)
Cindric has done relatively well here and on other road courses. His worst finish here was 15th, and his best was 6th. He’s one spot ahead of Chase Elliott for best average finish. He’s not the best, but he’s not the worst, and he’s done better this year overall than in the past. Cindric should have eyes on him throughout this race.
Dark Horse: Shane van Gisbergen (+150)
It’s not really fair to even call him the dark horse, but relative to the rest of the races, this is his best opportunity to pull a win. The street race is closest to what he’s best at racing, and he shows no mercy but definitely gives grace and drives like a gentleman. All eyes are on van Gisbergen this weekend.
Top 16 After Last Week’s Race:
- 1. William Byron
- 2. Chase Elliott
- 3. Kyle Larson
- 4. Denny Hamlin
- 5. Christopher Bell
- 6. Tyler Reddick
- 7. Ryan Blaney
- 8. Ross Chastain
- 9. Chris Buescher
- 10. Chase Briscoe
- 11. Joey Logano
- 12. Alex Bowman
- 13. Bubba Wallace
- 14. Ryan Preece
- 15. Austin Cindric
- 16. Erik Jones
Lots of movement within the top 16, most notably Elliott jumping 3 positions thanks to the misfortune of many others at Atlanta. Jones jumped back into the top 16, so he’ll be looking for consistency over the next few weeks…or a win, which will likely require risk. Who’s willing to take those risks as we head closer to playoff territory? Stay tuned for this weekend’s race. I have a feeling we’re going to see a lot more movement after Sunday’s race in Chicago!
