The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Chicagoland Speedway for the eero 400, where Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Alex Bowman headline this week’s betting picks and value predictions.
eero 400 Picks
Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026
Track: Chicagoland Speedway
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Channel: TNT Sports
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Winner winner chicken dinner! I dare say that none of us are surprised by the outcome of Sonoma. SVG just needed to regroup after Coronado, and he did so in dominant fashion. He led 74 of the 110 laps, holding on for the win just 0.357 seconds over second place Chase Briscoe. He really came on strong in the closing laps, and SVG knew he was fading. Luckily, he managed to hang tight to take the win for the second year in a row at this track. Despite a “bad” qualifying run where SVG started 6th, he quickly positioned himself well after his team was able to get his car to an acceptable level. I find it mildly humorous that a 6th place qualifying run is considered “bad” in SVG’s book, but to each their own! This road course win ties Tony Stewart for 2nd all-time on the win list, just one place behind Jeff Gordon. That’s wild to think that SVG could tie Gordon as we approach another race this year. He’s got a long runway in front of him, so breaking a record is in his very near future.
For Briscoe, it was an interview of frustration despite a very solid finish. He realized that he had the better car, but SVG had the stronger talent behind the wheel. To be honest, coming in 2nd to SVG is nothing to sneeze at. That’s quite the compliment, actually. Regardless, Briscoe is hungry for a win, so this was a tough one to give up being so close. Ty Gibbs came in third after working a short-pit strategy. Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell both had solid days and rounded out the top 5 spots. Points leader Tyler Reddick, well, he didn’t have a great day. He actually finished dead last after dealing with a power steering issue on pit road, costing him 6 laps. Power steering issues are a problem on these road courses. There’s really no way out of that hole. You’ve got to have power steering. Period. For Reddick, it allowed Hamlin to finally topple his points lead that he’s held for the better part of the year. Hamlin himself had a rough day, finishing 26th after encountering Carson Hocevar’s bumper on lap 64, but it was good enough to knock Reddick down.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, they will all have an opportunity at redemption, but it’s back to the traditional oval this time around. While not a road course, you better believe that we’re going to see another dominating performance out of some of the same drivers while others, notably SVG, will have some work to do. Chicagoland Speedway is a 1.520-mile asphalt tri-oval with 18 degrees of banking in the turns, 11 degrees on the frontstretch, and 5 degrees on the backstretch. It’s a place of high speeds where aero does matter and tires will take a toll. Because of the age of this track, drivers often see some very aggressive tire wear, typically leading to staggered pit strategies. Late pit strategy can make or break who wins this one. The other major factor is that drivers haven’t been on the oval at this facility since 2019. NASCAR reverted to the street course after COVID and is returning to the oval, leaving data few and far between. Testing, practicing, and qualifying are things that will be “new” to everyone this week.
Odds and Value Picks
We have several guys who notoriously do well at these intermediate tracks that are high on speed and tires wear. We have the couple of Hendrick drivers, Larson and Elliott, who historically dominate these types of tracks, but then we have guys like Denny Hamlin who have recently dominated on these styles. Current NASCAR betting odds are available at Bovada. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into Sunday’s race:
Winner: Denny Hamlin (+250)
Hamlin is a previous winner and the driver currently with the highest driver ranking this year on the intermediate tracks. He’s really come to life in the middle of this season. Don’t count him out. Actually, look for him in victory lane. Hamlin is coming for the checkered flag this weekend.
Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski (+3500)
I keep Keselowski in view because he’s got a lot left in him. With an 8.8 average finish over the last 11 starts, he’s solid. He’s made some smart moves this year and has shown us some speed. If the team can get a car somewhat decent this weekend and avoid pit road errors, Keselowski has a fighting shot.
Dark Horse: Alex Bowman (+6600)
Look, I never wanted to count Bowman as a dark horse, but here we are. Unfortunately, his future with HMS is non-existent and he’s been less than impressive as of late. That being said, this might be one of the best shots he has this year to take home a trophy. Bowman is the defending winner at Chicagoland, and he also boasts 3 top 10 finishes in his last 3 starts.
Points Picture Heading Into Chicagoland
Bowman is currently 29th in points, jumping 3 positions after his Sonoma run. Does he have any shot at a championship this year? No. Could this be his best 2026 performance? Yes. Keselowski gained a spot after Sonoma as well, but he still sits outside of the top 16 in the points. Let’s see where the rest of these guys landed after SVG’s unsurprising victory:
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Tyler Reddick
3. Ryan Blaney
4. Ty Gibbs
5. Kyle Larson
6. Chase Elliott
7. Chris Buescher
8. Carson Hocevar
9. Daniel Suarez
10. Christopher Bell
11. Chase Briscoe
12. William Byron
13. Bubba Wallace
14. Shane Van Gisbergen
15. Ryan Preece
16. Austin Cindric
SVG jumped back into contention, but this weekend will challenge him again, as his oval runs just aren’t quite where they need to be yet. Erik Jones lost big on the weekend, falling back to 17th place. Former champion Joey Logano is also having his fair share of challenges, currently sitting in 20th position and well outside of any championship contention. Will Hamlin increase his 1 point lead over Tyler Reddick this weekend or will Reddick come back for glory? We’ll all have to wait and see how this plays out on a historic 250th weekend celebration at Chicagoland Speedway!
