The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond Raceway for the Cook Out 400, where Denny Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, and Josh Berry headline this week’s betting picks and value predictions.
Cook Out 400 Picks
Date: Saturday, August 15, 2026
Track: Richmond Raceway
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Iowa came down to pit strategy at its very core with most drivers not even on the lead lap when all was said and done. Ty Gibbs took the checkered flag 0.253 seconds ahead of Christopher Bell after several laps of battling and working to hold off his JGR teammate. It was the second win of the young driver’s career, with his first checkered flag coming at another well known short track, Bristol. Gibbs actually did not lead nearly as many laps as Bell or even Ryan Blaney. In fact, Blaney led the most on the day at 129. Bell led 108 laps. Ross Chastain led 40. Bubba Wallace led 35 laps with Chase Elliott leading 18 on the day. When it all wrapped up, Gibbs only led 20, but that last one mattered the most.
Two tires was a risky call, but it proved to be the best call of the day by crew chief Tyler Allen. It wasn’t all unicorns and rainbows, though. Gibbs had a big miscue in the first stage, costing him 25 spots. The key was staying calm in the face of pressure. Instead of succumbing to the challenge, Gibbs rallied and made the most of it. For some, it wasn’t such a great day. Most notably, Tyler Reddick had a rough start and end to the day by lap 4, when his car got loosed up in turn 1, leading to a gnarly hit into the outside wall but not before taking Erik Jones with him. Jones was just collateral damage, with nothing he could’ve done to avoid it. It was a bigger hit for Jones, who has been struggling getting and staying into the top 16. This may have done him in for any hopes he had of making a championship run. It had big implications for Reddick, who now will likely concede the regular season championship after dropping 2 positions after his 36th place finish.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers are headed to a big little track. This 0.75-mile asphalt D-oval has 14 degrees in the turns, 8 degrees on the frontstretch, and 2 degrees on the backstretch. It’s a pretty flat short track, much like Iowa. Richmond is a place where track position 100% makes or breaks the drivers. The teams have to get their drivers out front. Drivers tend to pull away very quickly at this place, leaving guys in the dust. There are more racing lines here than at Iowa, barely, but it’s harder to keep up and stay on anyone’s bumper long enough to try to pass. That’s not to say it won’t happen, but these drivers will need to be pretty evenly matched. Tire fall off will remain consistent and hard, especially as the race transitions to under the lights.
Odds and Value Picks
What we saw in terms of dominance at Iowa will likely remain as we head into Richmond. I have a feeling that we’re going to see a veteran in victory lane, though. Gibbs will have a good opportunity to contend, but Richmond lends itself to veteran winners. Current NASCAR betting odds are available at Bovada. Here’s a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race:
Winner: Denny Hamlin (+450)
As the current points leader, Hamlin is coming in with a load of confidence. His career average 7th place finish doesn’t hurt either. The 2024 season saw him take a runner-up finish in August and a win in March. In last year’s race, Hamlin came home a respectable 10th. In all active drivers, Hamlin is heading into the weekend as the strongest pick based on his previous stats and current season results.
Mid-Range Pick: Ty Gibbs (+1000)
Gibbs is obviously picking up momentum, especially on the short tracks. Although he only has 5 starts in his Cup career, he has an average finish of 16th, with a best finish of 9th in 2023. The advantage he has is clear. He’s improving every race, clearly shown in his victories at Bristol and Iowa this year. Gibbs is currently sitting 2nd in points, with a great opportunity to really show his strength on the short tracks here at Richmond.
Dark Horse: Josh Berry (+3300)
With such an impressive late model career, it’s no wonder that Berry excels at these short tracks with low banking. Berry is also coming off a top 4 finish at Iowa, which is very similar to Richmond. Look for Berry to be a big contender on Sunday. He doesn’t have a shot at the championship, but he managed to jump 3 positions after the race at Iowa.
Points Picture Heading Into Richmond
Berry may be able to make some big strides this weekend and another big leap. Iowa threw a little bit of a wrench in the standings, so let’s take a look at where everyone’s sitting after Sunday’s race:
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Ty Gibbs
3. Ryan Blaney
4. Tyler Reddick
5. Chase Briscoe
6. Christopher Bell
7. Chase Elliott
8. Carson Hocevar
9. Chris Buescher
10. Kyle Larson
11. William Byron
12. Daniel Suarez
13. Joey Logano
14. Bubba Wallace
15. Shane Van Gisbergen
16. Austin Cindric
Hamlin, Gibbs, Blaney, and Reddick have all clinched a spot at this point in the playoffs. Chastain jumped 3 spots, sitting in 18th, but he’s 49 points out of the transfer spot. It’s unlikely that he’s going to make up enough ground to get into the top 16 at this rate. Preece is 29 points out of contention, so it’s possible, but he has his work cut out for him. Who will come away with the victory this weekend at Richmond? Will our veterans maintain the status quo of success or will another young gun like Gibbs surprise us? Stay tuned for another great night of racing at Richmond Raceway!
