Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, and Ross Chastain headline this weekend’s picks at the blue walls of Phoenix.
Race: Freeway Insurance 500
Date: Sunday October 18th, 2026
Track: Phoenix Raceway
Time: 3pm ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
What we learned was that Alex Bowman isn’t great at apologizing and that Bubba Wallace can take a big hit! Those guys obviously didn’t take the win, but they certainly came through one of the biggest wrecks we’ve seen this year so far. Bowman got loose and came up the track very suddenly, completely t-boning and taking out Bubba Wallace. Wallace had absolutely nowhere to go and aggressively spun, flattening the rear of his car on the outside wall only to come back down and slam the same exact spot on his car on the bottom of the track. It was a gnarly wreck and definitely wrung his bell. Kudos to the safety features in place as both drivers got out of their cars and came out of the medical center on their own volition. It wasn’t what either driver wanted to see, especially Bubba while he’s still working the Chase for the best points finish he can have. That all but wiped him out of championship contention. Wallace only lost one spot, but he’s nowhere near the top of the leaderboard as we close in on the last races of the 2026 season.
Chase Briscoe, on the other hand, is a guy on a mission! This kid picked up 2 positions in the championship standings and is now only 14 points behind Bell and 16 points behind Hamlin after securing another win this weekend at Charlotte. Briscoe was our mid-range pick and he did not disappoint! It was a nail biter at the end, only beating Bell to the line by a very thin 0.029 second margin. It was nearly a photo finish, but it was a well-deserved win after leading 62 laps on the day. Bell was a bit of a sore loser. It’s understandable to be disappointed, but he was salty, real salty in his post-race interview. Honestly, it was disappointing listening to his bad attitude, but to each their own. Briscoe was elated and had the whole family out on the track to celebrate. It was a great sight. He gave much credit to his pit crew, which was well earned after many drivers suffered errors on pit road, costing them multiple spots and ultimately points at the end of the day. Briscoe now has 2 wins in a row in the Chase, leaving us scratching our heads at what is going to happen here in the closing races.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams are heading to the blue walls of Phoenix. This is a unique track. It’s a cool place to go because it’s not really a short track but it’s not really an intermediate either. The configuration is a dog-leg oval with an odd 1.022 mile length. The frontstretch and turns 1 and 2 are 9 degrees with the backstretch having mild banking at just 3 degrees. Turns 3 and 4 are at 11 degrees. This is a relatively flat track with just enough banking to carry some momentum and speed in a couple of the turns. Turns 1 and 2 create challenges on entry as the cars will push due to the flat and tight configuration. On the opposite end, turns 3 and 4 produce more speed into the turn because of the wider arc and slightly higher banking. Loose on exit tends to be a big issue for drivers coming out of these turns. We’re going to see challenges in setup with the different requirements for each turn while also seeing heavier wear on the right rear tires.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner this weekend, y’all are going to hate me. If we’re being honest, there’s one driver that is exceptional when compared to the others from a stats standpoint. I’ll give you one guess. Let’s take a look at the potential winners heading into this weekend’s race:
Winner: Kyle Larson (+800)
This dude is just amazing here. He has an average 4.9 finish over his last 7 starts and a career average finish of 10th. This is best among active drivers. He has one career win from 2021, but if he drives the race this weekend anything remotely close to the rest of his Chase starts, he’s going to be hard to beat. Larson will be top of class this weekend.
Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher (+5000)
This is a guy we haven’t talked a lot about this season, but this is not the weekend to ignore Buescher. He has a recent top 5 finish here and is consistent at these styles of tracks. He is a leader in the shorter flatter ovals and has a proven record on these configurations. Buescher may surprise us all while producing a pretty payout.
Dark Horse: Ross Chastain (+3500)
Chastain has notably had a difficult season this year, but this is a place where he can make a difference. The Watermelon Man has 5 finishes of 11th or better and won the 2023 race at Phoenix. Based on long green flag runs, Chastain has a great shot if he can bring the same level of consistency that we know him for at this rim-riding style tracks.
Chastain’s season may not have been what he wanted it to be, but there’s still some time to make up some ground and get a head start on the 2027 season. For the others, the Championship is still up for grabs. Larson is looking to continue to extend his lead. Let’s see where everyone landed after Sunday’s race:
1. Kyle Larson
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Christopher Bell
4. Chase Briscoe
5. Ryan Blaney
6. Joey Logano
7. Tyler Reddick
8. Austin Cindric
9. Ty Gibbs
10. Carson Hocevar
11. Bubba Wallace
12. Chase Elliott
13. William Byron
14. Daniel Suarez
15. Chris Buescher
16. Ryan Preece
To be honest, not a lot changed in the points. There were some changes up and down here and there but nothing that significant. Somehow, Kyle Larson coming in 6th at Charlotte was still enough to extend his lead over Denny Hamlin. Hamlin will need to watch his pit road strategy and avoid mistakes this weekend. That is truly where his problems lie. They’re not on the track. They’re on pit road. It’s crunch time. The level of attention to detail is vital moving forward. Who will avoid penalties this weekend and get to victory lane at Phoenix? Stay tuned for what’s sure to be an action packed Sunday afternoon of racing for these drivers and teams!
