The NASCAR Cup Series Chase heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday for the South Point 400, where Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Noah Gragson headline this week’s betting picks and value predictions.
South Point 400 Picks
Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
Track: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Time: 5:30 PM ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
A few months ago, someone jokingly asked Kyle Larson if he’d ever win a Cup Series race again after battling a 50+ winless streak. He proved them all wrong and won at WWTR and has done it again as predicted at Kansas. The high line is just where he’s comfortable, and he had a dominating performance on Sunday in front of a packed stadium. Larson led 235 of the 267 laps and earned his second win in the last three races. He’s letting us know that he’s in it to win it for the championship again. His lead over second place was 0.565s, and was continuing to grow as the laps ticked on.
Chase Briscoe was in an unenvious position with Larson behind him with 7 laps remaining. Briscoe was a prime example of why being out front at Kansas isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Tire wear is hard to manage and Briscoe was getting loose. Larson quickly took advantage of the challenges Briscoe was facing, claiming it’s easier to be “the hunter than the hunted”. That was pretty accurate. He paid attention and showed us his racing IQ. Larson is really one of the smartest drivers in the series right now. He’s good at reading the field and knowing how to benefit from the shortcomings of others.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
The drivers and teams are slated for another intermediate track on Sunday as they head to Las Vegas Motor Speedway. This track is a 1.5 mile asphalt tri-oval with 20 degrees of banking in the turns and 9 degrees on the straights. This is a really fun track to drive. If you ever have a chance to do a driving experience here, I highly recommend it. The banking at 20 degrees is pretty intense at the speeds they reach here, especially allowing drivers to maintain momentum out of the turns. One of the characteristic challenges of this place are the bumps and roughness of the track off turn 1 and into turn 2. This makes it hard to maintain control at times and you’ll see drivers get loose particularly through those turns. There’s additional roughness through the tunnel, so tire wear and chatter are going to be front of mind. It’s going to be a battle to maintain track position, as being out front is advantageous here, but there are many grooves to get there unlike at Kansas.
Odds and Value Picks
Winners at Las Vegas are mirroring what we’ve seen in recent weeks. Kyle Larson is a top pick, but I think that he’s going to take a back seat this weekend. Current NASCAR betting odds are available at Bovada. Here’s a look at your potential winners heading into Sunday’s race:
Winner: Joey Logano (+1600)
With 4 career victories here, Logano knows his way around this track. He won the 2024 Fall race, which is key to understanding the track changes at this time of the year. Logano is seeing some great gains late in the season, and I think he has the greatest chances as we head into this weekend.
Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski (+5000)
With a big announcement regarding his departure from RFK after the 2026 season, it would be great to see Brad come away from this season with a win. Here’s historically runs well on these styles of tracks and is a 3 time winner at this specific intermediate. I wouldn’t be surprised if the weight of the announcement being lifted has injected some confidence into him. Brad will find some late race strategy as he typically does and use his expertise on high tire degradation tracks to make the most of his chances.
Dark Horse: Noah Gragson (+50000)
This is a long shot for sure, but this is Gragson’s home track. He’s got great experience at the challenges the drivers will face here and he tends to outperform relative to other tracks at this place. Look for Gragson to work on a solid run this weekend.
He has fallen a little to the wayside if we’re being honest. Gragson has struggled to put together a solid string of good finishes, so this is a great opportunity for him to get a little redemption. Don’t be surprised to see Kyle Larson up front throughout the day too, but be prepared for Logano to give us a strong show. Let’s take a look at your points shift since Kansas:
Chase Field Heading Into Las Vegas Motor Speedway
1. Kyle Larson
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Christopher Bell
4. Joey Logano
5. Ryan Blaney
6. Ty Gibbs
7. Tyler Reddick
8. Chase Briscoe
9. Austin Cindric
10. Bubba Wallace
11. Carson Hocevar
12. William Byron
13. Chase Elliott
14. Ryan Preece
15. Chris Buescher
16. Daniel Suarez
Larson is now 26 points above Hamlin. That’s a strong gap as we move forward. This is exactly why stage points matter along with leading laps and being the fastest lap. Every little point will matter. Who is going to capitalize this weekend? Will Joey Logano be our winner or will Larson pull another win out? Maybe someone else will completely surprise us! Stay tuned as we head to the exciting Sunday of racing at Las Vegas Motor Speedway!
