Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain, and Todd Gilliland headline the picks this week as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the paperclip at Martinsville Speedway for the Xfinity 500.
Xfinity 500 Picks
Date: Sunday, November 1st, 2026
Track: Martinsville Speedway
Time: 2pm ET
Channel: NBC
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
SEVENTY THREE POINTS. That is the lead that Kyle Larson now has on second place after his amazing win at Talladega on Sunday. Denny Hamlin even told everyone that they’re now racing for second place in the Chase at this point. It’s no fault of Kyle, as he has had a tremendous run of strong finishes in the Chase, including multiple wins. Talladega was one where we were all wondering where he came from after being shuffled back in the last lap. At the last minute in the last turn, Larson was able to push his way through 3-wide and take advantage of the momentum he was carrying to come across the line 0.041s ahead of teammate William Byron. For Hendrick, it was a solid 1-2 finish and just an overall great way to head towards the close of the 2026 season. As someone who has never won at a superspeedway, Larson was elated as his family joined him in victory lane to celebrate a monumental achievement.
It was a rough day for many of the other Chasers. Denny Hamlin in 8th was the next best finisher aside from Larson and Byron. Chase Briscoe, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, and Tyler Reddick finished respectively 33rd through 37th. That’s wild! Kyle Larson wasn’t hating it, though. It was a day of weird pit strategy with Ross Chastain being a lap down and basically interfering with the entire field and somehow finishing the day in 4th place. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. had a strong finish in 3rd, which should be expected for that team at this type of track. Cole Custer was your 5th place finisher. Carson Hocevar, Todd Gilliland, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman, and Michael McDowell rounded out the top 10 spots. This just goes to show how anything can happen at Talladega.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams need to switch gears and strategies as we head to the shortest track on the circuit. This is one of my favorites and most visited tracks over the years. Martinsville Speedway is affectionately known as the “Paperclip” due to its shape. It is a 0.526-mile asphalt and concrete over with 12 degrees of banking in the turns and no banking on the straights. The different surfaces can cause some tire issues as the day wears on, but the biggest issue that will always remain at Martinsville is lap traffic. With minimal banking across the track, drivers push hard out of the turns but have to brake heavy into them. The momentum is just never there to gain much speed, but drivers tend to get into a rhythm. That being said, it doesn’t take much for them to catch the field quickly and start lapping the slower cars.
Odds and Value Picks
Who will be the masterful winner of this short track? When it comes to picking winners at Martinsville, there are actually a select few drivers that have a really great shot. It’s not as nearly unpredictable as Talladega, but the teams must bring a decent car and minimize pit road errors. The tight quarters of pit road inevitably play a role in this race. I do not think we are going to see many of the same names in the top 10 this weekend as we did on Sunday at the big track of Talladega. I do think that we will see a couple of very notable players in the mix. Here’s a look at your potential winners heading into Martinsville. Current NASCAR betting odds are available at Bovada.
Winner: Denny Hamlin (+400)
Statistically, Hamlin is one of the top picks. I’m not really sure why he isn’t the top pick on all platforms. Nevertheless, with 8 wins on the docket for this track alone, Hamlin cannot be outdone this weekend. He’s got a lot left to prove and wants to go out with a bang in 2026. This is his best chance with only 2 races remaining.
Mid-Range Pick: Ross Chastain (+5000)
In 15 careers starts, Chastain has 3 top 5s, and 5 top 10s. This is one of his strongest tracks and he’s proven he knows how to get around the shorter tracks with ease. Chastain hasn’t had his best year, and this could be an opportunity to capitalize on the 2026 season. Look for him to push this weekend much like he did on Sunday at Talladega. We aren’t done seeing victories from him yet.
Dark Horse: Todd Gilliland (+35000)
Gilliland put on a little show on Sunday at Talladega. Lest we forget that he’s out there and ready to continue to drive for a win. This is one of Gilliand’s strongest tracks, showing up with 3 top 10s in his last 7 starts. If he qualifies well and maintains track position, Gilliland has an opportunity for another strong run this weekend.
Points Picture Heading Into Martinsville
Let’s take a look at your top 16 after the chaos that was Talladega:
Current Standings Snapshot:
1. Kyle Larson
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Christopher Bell
4. Chase Briscoe
5. Joey Logano
6. Ryan Blaney
7. Tyler Reddick
8. Austin Cindric
9. Ty Gibbs
10. Carson Hocevar
11. William Byron
12. Chase Elliott
13. Bubba Wallace
14. Daniel Suarez
15. Ryan Preece
16. Chris Buescher
The points are not what anyone other than Kyle Larson want to see right now. Dude is killing it. That’s the bottom line. He has dominated this entire Chase with the exception of one race. Unless something absolutely catastrophic happens to him, he’s got this in the bag at this point. We also can’t forget his strength at Martinsville. He cannot be left off the roster as a potential winner either. Will Kyle Larson manage to completely dominate this weekend too? There’s only one way to find out. Stay tuned as the drivers and teams battle it out at Martinsville with only 2 races remaining in the 2026 season.
