The NASCAR Cup Series Chase continues Saturday night at Bristol Motor Speedway with the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, where Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, and Ryan Preece headline this week’s betting picks and value predictions.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race Picks
Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
Track: Bristol Motor Speedway
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
As predicted, Kyle Larson nailed an elusive win at WWTR on Sunday after a race plagued by multiple wrecks, interesting pit strategies, and frustrated drivers. Larson managed to maintain a 0.33-second lead over tough competitor Joey Logano and teammate Alex Bowman to take the checkered flag after two overtime restarts. The race seemed to end the way it started.
Multiple cautions flew early in the race as drivers quickly learned they were going to have to play nice if they wanted to track any laps on the board. Logano was the class of the field throughout the day, but Larson’s personal call for four tires proved to be the winning call after Paul Wolfe opted for right sides only for Logano.
The four tires gave Larson the speed he needed to overcome both Bowman and Logano in the late-race restarts when it mattered most. Bowman was definitely instrumental in pushing Larson to his victory. It was a challenging 51-race winless streak, but Larson showed us exactly why he can’t ever be counted out for a championship run. He’s currently second in points, just 9 points behind Denny Hamlin.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams are headed to another tough track for some. Bristol still holds its spot as a challenging track for many drivers, boasting the typical short-track challenges. This track is a 0.533-mile concrete oval with 24-28 degrees of banking in the turns and 4-8 degrees on the straights.
It’s much different than the flat tracks we’ve been on the last few weeks, so teams will need to be cautious of tire wear, especially on the high side of the track. The high line is tough here, where it was preferred for the last few tracks. Tires break down quickly at Bristol, leaving a lot of debris on the high side. Depending on whether NASCAR puts down a tire compound will also determine the degree of tire degradation. Aside from that, drivers and teams will have to battle lap traffic. There’s no way around that challenge.
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Odds and Value Picks
Picking a driver at Bristol leads us down to our seasoned driver pool typically. It’s a track that requires a high driver IQ in multiple ways. It can be tough for the rookies to navigate and stay out of trouble while trying to take care of their equipment.
Will Kyle Larson maintain his momentum after his win at WWTR? Current NASCAR betting odds are available at Bovada. Let’s take a look at the potential winners heading into this weekend’s third leg of the Chase:
Winner: Kyle Larson (+400)
I hate picking the same driver two weeks in a row, but I went on instinct last week despite other books running Hamlin and Bell as favorites, and it turned out right! This weekend, it’s more about stats at Bristol. Larson has led over 2,000 laps at this track and has three wins, including the spring race in 2025. With his current consistent string of strong finishes, Larson is going to be hard to beat.
Mid-Range Pick: Chase Briscoe (+1000)
Statistically speaking, Bristol is Briscoe’s best track. He averages a 12.6-place finish and had a 4th-place run in his last night race start here. Briscoe is competitive here, and we will see him up front this weekend.
Dark Horse: Ryan Preece (+4000)
Preece still has a lot to learn, but his runs on high tire-wear tracks are consistently strong. He’s had a career-best 7th-place finish and often runs top 12 or better. Look for Preece to be a money maker this weekend at Bristol.
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Chase Field Heading Into Bristol Motor Speedway
The points are shifting early in the Chase. We’ve seen some big moves as these guys drive some unpredictable tracks. Bristol will likely cause the same level of movement, so let’s see where they’re sitting heading into this weekend’s short-track adventure:
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Kyle Larson
3. Christopher Bell
4. Ryan Blaney
5. Tyler Reddick
6. Ty Gibbs
7. Joey Logano
8. Chase Briscoe
9. Carson Hocevar
10. Bubba Wallace
11. Chase Elliott
12. Austin Cindric
13. Chris Buescher
14. Ryan Preece
15. William Byron
16. Daniel Suarez
Hocevar warned us that he stayed out of the wrecks on Sunday, so he’s going to try again this weekend. That is hilarious. He gained 3 spots after WWTR, and I imagine he’d like to do the same this weekend.
These guys have their work cut out for them. We’re going to see a lot of different strategies as many look to get a win and some are just aiming for a quiet night and stage points. How will it all play out? You’ll have to stay tuned and see as we head to a great night of short-track racing at Bristol Motor Speedway!
