The Boston Red Sox (53-47) look to salvage the final game of their three-game series against the Chicago Cubs (59-39) at Wrigley Field on Sunday afternoon. After dropping the first two games by a combined score of 10-1, Boston turns to their ace Garrett Crochet to stop the bleeding. With the Cubs sending rookie Cade Horton to the mound, this pitching matchup heavily favors the visiting Red Sox, creating several advantageous betting opportunities despite Boston’s recent offensive struggles.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Red Sox -1.5 (+135) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Garrett Crochet Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-115) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 7 Total Runs (-120) ★★★☆☆
Red Sox vs Cubs Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Boston Red Sox | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -135 | +115 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+135) | +1.5 (-160) |
| Total | Over 7 (+100) | Under 7 (-120) |
Opening Line: Red Sox -130, Total 7.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement on this game has been minimal, with Boston opening as a -130 favorite and only shifting slightly to -135 despite the presence of Cy Young candidate Garrett Crochet on the mound. More telling is the total, which has dropped from 7.5 to 7 with juice on the under, indicating professional money is expecting a low-scoring affair at Wrigley Field. The run line at +135 for Boston represents solid value considering Crochet’s dominance and the Cubs’ struggles against left-handed pitching (13-15 record this season).
Pitching Matchup: Garrett Crochet vs Cade Horton – Who Has the Edge?
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet (10-4, 2.23 ERA)
- Dominated in his last start with a complete game shutout against Tampa Bay (9 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 9 K)
- Exceptional 1.04 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 through 129.1 innings this season
- Road warrior with 8-1 record and 2.13 ERA away from Fenway Park
- Has won 6 straight decisions, hasn’t lost since May 28th
Chicago Cubs: Cade Horton (3-3, 4.45 ERA)
- Struggling rookie has allowed 14 earned runs over his last 4 starts (20.1 IP)
- Mediocre 1.41 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 through 56.2 innings
- Winless in his last 6 outings with opponents hitting .276 against him
- Last start: 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in loss to Twins
Advantage: Significant edge to Boston. Crochet is pitching at a Cy Young level while Horton has struggled with consistency in his rookie campaign.
Bullpen Breakdown
The bullpen comparison slightly favors Chicago, as the Cubs’ relief corps leads MLB with a 2.94 ERA since May 1st. However, Boston’s bullpen has been reliable with Aroldis Chapman (17 saves) anchoring the back end. Justin Slaten, who has been out with a shoulder injury, is progressing well but remains unavailable. The Cubs have their own bullpen issues with Brad Keller struggling recently and Porter Hodge on the IL, though Daniel Palencia (13 saves, 1.57 ERA) has emerged as a dominant closer. Both teams will be looking to avoid deep bullpen usage with Monday’s games looming.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Red Sox have lost back-to-back games after winning 10 straight before the All-Star break
- Cubs are 6-1-1 to the Under in their last 8 games
- Boston is 5-1 to the Under in their last 6 games
- When Crochet starts, the Red Sox are 14-6 overall and have covered the run line in 5 of his last 6 wins
- Cubs struggle against left-handed pitching with a 13-15 record this season
- Wrigley Field has played as one of MLB’s most pitcher-friendly parks this season (0.898 run factor)
- Boston has scored just 1 run in the first two games of this series
Alex Bregman’s Impact: How the Star Third Baseman Stabilizes Boston’s Lineup
Alex Bregman has been everything the Red Sox hoped for when they signed him this offseason, posting a .919 OPS and providing balance to a lefty-heavy lineup. Though Boston’s offense has stalled in this series, Bregman’s presence in the middle of the order gives them a dangerous right-handed bat against the rookie Horton. With Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu likely returning to the lineup against a right-hander, Boston should present a much more formidable offense than what we’ve seen in the first two games of this series.
Wrigley Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Wrigley Field has played as one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball this season with a 0.898 run factor (25th in MLB) and 0.883 home run factor. Sunday’s forecast calls for temperatures around 82°F with a 7-10 mph wind blowing in from left field, further suppressing offense. This environment plays perfectly into the hands of a dominant pitcher like Crochet, who can navigate the historically tricky Wrigley wind conditions better than the rookie Horton. The park factors, combined with Boston’s recent offensive struggles and Crochet’s excellence, strongly point toward a low-scoring affair.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Red Sox-Cubs Showdown
Primary Play: Red Sox -1.5 (+135)
I’m backing the Red Sox run line as my top play in this matchup. Crochet has been nothing short of dominant, especially on the road where he’s 8-1 with a 2.13 ERA. His last outing was a complete game shutout, and he draws a favorable matchup against a Cubs team that’s struggled against left-handed pitching all season. Meanwhile, rookie Cade Horton has allowed 14 earned runs in his last four starts and hasn’t won in over a month. With Boston desperate to avoid a sweep and having their ace on the mound, I expect them to win by multiple runs, making the +135 price extremely attractive.
Strong Value Play: Under 7 Runs (-120)
This total has already moved from 7.5 to 7 with juice on the under, and for good reason. Wrigley Field has played extremely pitcher-friendly this season, and today’s conditions with the wind blowing in favor pitchers even more. Boston’s offense has been ice cold in this series with just one run scored, while Chicago has been trending under consistently (6-1-1 in their last 8). With Crochet’s dominance, I expect him to shut down the Cubs while Boston’s offense does just enough against Horton. Five or six total runs feels right in this matchup.
Worth Considering: Garrett Crochet Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Crochet is averaging 11.1 K/9 this season and has exceeded this strikeout total in 12 of his 20 starts. The Cubs rank middle of the pack in strikeout rate, and Crochet should be able to navigate their lineup with relative ease. His pitch count has been elevated in recent starts, so there’s little concern about him getting pulled early. After his complete game against Tampa Bay, confidence is sky-high, and I expect 8+ strikeouts from the Red Sox ace in this favorable matchup.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet | Over 7.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Alex Bregman | To Record a Hit | -175 | ★★★★☆ |
| Cade Horton | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -130 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Under 1.5 Total Bases | -155 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Jarren Duran | To Steal a Base | +250 | ★★☆☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Crochet Poised to Deliver Boston a Much-Needed Win
While the Red Sox offense has looked lifeless in this series, Garrett Crochet provides the perfect slump-buster as their ace takes the mound. The pitching matchup heavily favors Boston, with Crochet performing at a Cy Young level against a struggling rookie in Horton. The Cubs have hit a hot streak, but their 13-15 record against left-handed pitching reveals a clear vulnerability that Crochet should exploit. Expect a low-scoring affair with Boston finally breaking through offensively against the rookie Horton. At +135 on the run line, there’s excellent value backing the Red Sox to win by multiple runs behind their dominant southpaw.
Score Prediction: Red Sox 4, Cubs 1
