The St. Louis Cardinals (51-48) and Arizona Diamondbacks (49-50) wrap up their weekend series at Chase Field with a Sunday afternoon showdown. After Arizona’s dominant 10-1 victory on Saturday behind Ryne Nelson’s strong pitching and a power display from Eugenio Suarez, the D-backs look to take the series with their ace Merrill Kelly on the mound. Meanwhile, the struggling Cardinals, losers of three straight on the road, turn to Miles Mikolas to try to salvage the finale. The pitching matchup clearly favors Arizona, but does that mean there’s betting value on the home team?
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+135) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Over 9 Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +123 | -148 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-155) | -1.5 (+135) |
| Total | Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110) |
Opening Line: Diamondbacks -140, Total 9
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
Early action has pushed the Diamondbacks from -140 to -148, indicating professional bettors see value on the home team. This isn’t surprising given the Cardinals’ recent road woes and Mikolas’s road struggles. Some money has also flowed toward the over, which makes sense considering St. Louis starters have been hammered recently, posting a 7.64 ERA over their last 14 games. The pros are clearly betting against the Cardinals’ pitching staff, which has allowed a staggering 44 runs in the first three innings across their last 14 games.
Pitching Matchup: Miles Mikolas vs Merrill Kelly – Who Has the Edge?
St. Louis Cardinals: Miles Mikolas (5-6, 4.94 ERA)
- Struggling significantly with a bloated 4.94 ERA across 93 innings
- Lacks strikeout stuff with just 66 Ks in 93 innings (6.4 K/9)
- Decent control with only 21 walks (2.0 BB/9)
- Has been hit hard on the road this season
- Coming off a stretch where Cardinals starters have been hammered
Arizona Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly (8-5, 3.34 ERA)
- Enjoying a strong season with 3.34 ERA across 116 innings
- Excellent strikeout numbers with 113 Ks (8.8 K/9)
- Good command with 33 walks (2.6 BB/9)
- Elite 1.05 WHIP shows his effectiveness limiting baserunners
- Pitched well in his last outing before the All-Star break
- Recently hosted kids from the Arizona Cancer Foundation at Chase Field, showing his community involvement
Advantage: Significant edge to Arizona. Kelly has been the far superior pitcher this season, and Mikolas has particularly struggled on the road. With the Cardinals’ rotation in disarray, Kelly gives the D-backs a substantial advantage.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Cardinals bullpen has been a strength for them this season, with Ryan Helsley (19 saves) anchoring the back end and solid setup work from Phil Maton (18 holds) and JoJo Romero (14 holds). However, the unit has been taxed recently due to short outings from the starting rotation. Arizona’s bullpen has been less consistent, with their closer situation in flux due to injuries. Shelby Miller leads the team with 10 saves, but the D-backs have had to mix and match in the late innings with Jalen Beeks (11 holds) and Ryan Thompson (11 holds) handling setup duties. If this game is close late, the Cardinals might have a slight edge despite their recent workload concerns.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Cardinals have lost 3 straight road games and are 22-28 away from Busch Stadium
- St. Louis is 4-10 in their last 14 games overall
- Cardinals starters have posted a disastrous 7.64 ERA over their last 14 games
- The Diamondbacks are 25-25 at Chase Field this season
- Arizona is 5-5 in their last 10 games, outscoring opponents by 14 runs
- The Cardinals hold a slight 3-2 edge in the season series
- The Diamondbacks are just 11-19 in one-run games this season
- Eugenio Suarez has hit 5 home runs in his last 10 games
Eugenio Suarez: The Hot-Hitting Trade Target Lighting Up Chase Field
Eugenio Suarez has been on an absolute tear lately, hitting two home runs in yesterday’s game to bring his season total to 33 – leading the National League. His surge couldn’t come at a better time as multiple teams including the Yankees, Mariners, and Cubs have reportedly inquired about trading for the power-hitting third baseman. Against a pitcher like Mikolas who’s prone to giving up hard contact and struggles against right-handed power hitters, Suarez could continue his hot streak today. The veteran slugger is slashing .251/.340/.548 with those 33 homers and 78 RBIs on the season, making him one of the most dangerous bats in the D-backs lineup and a prime candidate to deliver again today.
Chase Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Chase Field plays as a relatively neutral ballpark despite its reputation as a hitter’s paradise in years past. The stadium ranks 14th in MLB with a 0.998 run factor and is actually below average for home runs with a 0.772 factor. The humidor and improved climate control systems have made the ballpark play more fairly in recent seasons. That said, the roof is likely to be closed due to July heat in Phoenix, which tends to make the ball carry better than when it’s open. This slightly favors power hitters like Suarez, who’s been taking advantage of the conditions with his recent power surge. Mikolas’s tendency to give up hard contact could be problematic in this environment, while Kelly’s ability to induce weak contact should play well.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Cardinals-Diamondbacks Showdown
Primary Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+135)
I’m backing the Diamondbacks on the run line today at a very attractive +135 price. The pitching matchup heavily favors Arizona with Merrill Kelly facing a struggling Miles Mikolas. The Cardinals’ starting pitching has been atrocious lately, posting a 7.64 ERA over their last 14 games, and they’ve been especially vulnerable in the early innings. With the D-backs coming off a 10-1 victory and Eugenio Suarez swinging a hot bat, I expect Arizona to jump out early and coast to a comfortable win. The value at +135 is too good to pass up.
Strong Value Play: Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Suarez is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, coming off a two-homer game and with 5 homers in his last 10 contests. He leads the National League with 33 home runs and faces Mikolas, who has struggled with right-handed power this season. At +125, this prop offers excellent value for a player who can clear this with one swing of the bat. With trade rumors swirling, Suarez has added motivation to continue his impressive power display.
Worth Considering: Over 9 Runs (-110)
The Cardinals’ pitching woes make the over an appealing option. St. Louis starters have been getting hit hard, especially early in games, and Mikolas has particularly struggled on the road. While Kelly is a quality pitcher, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen has been inconsistent at times. Arizona’s offense looked potent in Saturday’s 10-run outburst, and with temperatures forcing the roof closed at Chase Field, conditions should favor the hitters. Look for both teams to contribute to a high-scoring affair.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +125 | ★★★★☆ |
| Corbin Carroll | To Hit a Triple | +1100 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Merrill Kelly | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Brendan Donovan | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +130 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Diamondbacks’ Pitching Advantage Should Lead to Series Win
All signs point to an Arizona victory in this series finale. Merrill Kelly gives the Diamondbacks a significant edge on the mound against a Cardinals team that’s been struggling badly with their starting pitching. St. Louis has been outscored 44-17 in the first three innings over their last 14 games, and they’ve lost 10 of those contests. Arizona’s offense seems to be clicking after Saturday’s explosion, and with Eugenio Suarez swinging a hot bat amid trade rumors, I expect the D-backs to put up runs early against Mikolas. While the Cardinals’ bullpen could keep things close if Mikolas somehow navigates the early innings, the overall pitching advantage for Arizona should be too much to overcome. The run line at +135 offers excellent value and is my top play of the game.
Score Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks 7, St. Louis Cardinals 3
