The St. Louis Cardinals (64-65) and Los Angeles Dodgers (76-55) wrap up their three-game series Wednesday afternoon at Dodger Stadium, with a pitching matchup that has fans buzzing. Shohei Ohtani makes just his third start of the season for the Dodgers after his long-awaited return to the mound, while Matthew Liberatore tries to give the Cardinals a desperately needed quality start. After Tuesday night’s offensive explosion from LA that featured four home runs from Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernandez, the Dodgers look to complete the sweep and continue their push toward another NL West title.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-120) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Max Muncy to Hit a Home Run (+320) ★★★☆☆
St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | St. Louis Cardinals | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +210 | -250 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (+100) | -1.5 (-120) |
| Total | Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -240, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The market has shown interesting movement since opening, with money coming in on both the Dodgers and the total. The moneyline has shifted slightly from -240 to -250, indicating continued confidence in LA despite the hefty price. More telling is the total moving from 8.5 to 9, suggesting professional bettors expect Dodger Stadium to see more offense than typical for a day game. While public bettors are naturally gravitating toward Ohtani and the Dodgers, sharp action appears focused on exploiting value in the run line and total markets rather than laying the prohibitive moneyline price.
Pitching Matchup: Matthew Liberatore vs Shohei Ohtani – Who Has the Edge?
St. Louis Cardinals: Matthew Liberatore (6-9)
- 3.96 ERA across 109 innings pitched this season
- Mediocre 84 strikeouts to 26 walks (7.0 K/9 rate)
- Has allowed 14 homers this season (1.2 HR/9)
- Left-hander struggling on the road with a 4.67 ERA away from Busch Stadium
- Has failed to reach 6 innings in 4 of his last 6 starts
Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani (0-0)
- 2.40 ERA across 15 innings in his first two starts
- Impressive 17 strikeouts to just 5 walks (10.2 K/9 rate)
- Velocity increasing in each outing, touching 99 mph in last start
- Has allowed only 1 home run in his limited action
- Expected to throw 80-90 pitches today as LA continues to build his endurance
Advantage: Dodgers. While Ohtani is still building his pitch count, his stuff has been electric in his first two starts. Liberatore has been serviceable but inconsistent for St. Louis, and faces a Dodgers lineup that just erupted for multiple homers.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Dodgers hold a decisive edge in bullpen performance and depth. Los Angeles boasts one of MLB’s most effective relief corps, anchored by closer Tanner Scott (19 saves) and setup men Alex Vesia and Kirby Yates. The Dodgers’ bullpen ranks in the top five in ERA and has converted 30 of 36 save opportunities. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ bullpen has been a weak spot all season, with JoJo Romero (just 2 saves) handling closing duties by default. St. Louis relievers were hammered in Tuesday’s loss, with Ryan Fernandez and Andre Granillo allowing a combined 7 runs in just 1.2 innings. With both Fernandez and Granillo likely unavailable today after their heavy workload, the Cardinals’ relief options are even more limited.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Dodgers are 44-24 at home this season while the Cardinals are 31-33 on the road
- Los Angeles has won 7 of the last 9 meetings against St. Louis at Dodger Stadium
- The Cardinals are just 2-8 in their last 10 games against teams with winning records
- The Dodgers have covered the run line in 6 of their last 8 games when favored by -200 or more
- St. Louis is 3-7 in Liberatore’s last 10 road starts
- The over is 8-3 in the Cardinals’ last 11 road games
- Max Muncy has hit 4 home runs in his last 6 games against St. Louis
- The Dodgers have scored 5+ runs in 7 of their last 9 home games
Ohtani’s Two-Way Threat: The Superstar’s Impact on Today’s Game
Today marks another milestone in Shohei Ohtani’s remarkable comeback from elbow surgery. After focusing solely on hitting for most of the season (where he’s put up MVP-caliber numbers), Ohtani has now made two starts on the mound with impressive results. What makes this appearance especially dangerous for St. Louis is that Ohtani seems to elevate his offensive performance on days he pitches – a frightening proposition considering he’s already among the NL’s leaders in home runs and OPS. The Cardinals’ game plan must account for the unique challenge of facing a legitimate ace who also happens to be one of baseball’s most dangerous hitters.
Dodger Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Dodger Stadium traditionally suppresses run scoring (0.940 park factor for runs), but it actually boosts home runs (1.122 HR factor) compared to the average MLB park. This creates an interesting dynamic for today’s matchup, especially with a 4:10 pm ET start time creating challenging shadows during the early innings. The combination of Ohtani’s dominance and the Cardinals’ struggling bullpen could neutralize the park’s run-suppressing tendencies. With warmer temperatures expected around 85 degrees and light wind, conditions should be favorable for the Dodgers’ power hitters to continue their success from Tuesday night’s performance.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Cardinals-Dodgers Showdown
Primary Play: Dodgers -1.5 (-120)
I’m backing the Dodgers run line as my top play today. Los Angeles has all the advantages in this matchup – superior starting pitching with Ohtani, a vastly better bullpen, and a lineup that just exploded for multiple homers. The Cardinals’ bullpen is taxed after Tuesday’s blowout, and Liberatore has been inconsistent on the road. With the Dodgers playing excellent baseball at home and looking to complete the sweep, I see them winning by multiple runs.
Strong Value Play: Max Muncy to Hit a Home Run (+320)
After watching Muncy crush two homers in Tuesday’s game, I’m riding the hot hand here. The Cardinals are throwing another left-hander in Liberatore, and Muncy has historically punished southpaws. Liberatore has allowed 14 homers this season, and Muncy is seeing the ball exceptionally well right now. At these odds, there’s tremendous value on a power hitter who’s locked in at the plate.
Worth Considering: Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Ohtani has recorded 17 strikeouts in just 15 innings so far, and his velocity continues to tick upward with each start. The Cardinals have been prone to strikeouts this season, averaging 7.71 Ks per game. With Ohtani expected to throw 80-90 pitches today, I believe he can reach 7+ strikeouts against a St. Louis lineup that’s struggling at the plate.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Max Muncy | To Hit a Home Run | +320 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Teoscar Hernandez | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +105 | ★★★★☆ |
| Nolan Gorman | Over 0.5 RBIs | +180 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Matthew Liberatore | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -130 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Dodgers’ Momentum Too Strong to Ignore
The Cardinals simply appear overmatched in this series finale. After Tuesday’s offensive explosion, the Dodgers have momentum, the pitching advantage with Ohtani, and a significant edge in bullpen quality. St. Louis is running on fumes with their relief corps taxed and their confidence shaken after back-to-back losses. While Liberatore has had his moments this season, asking him to quiet the Dodgers’ bats at Dodger Stadium is a tall order. The line may seem steep, but the gap between these teams justifies it, especially with Ohtani taking the mound.
Score Prediction: Dodgers 6, Cardinals 2
