Event: FedEx St. Jude Championship
Where: TPC Southwind (Memphis, TN)
When: August 7th – 10th
Watch: CBS, ESPN+, The Golf Channel
Format: FedEx Cup Playoffs Round 1
The FedEx Cup Playoffs are finally here, and honestly, this is when golf gets real. The first playoff event at TPC Southwind separates the pretenders from the contenders, and with only 70 players in the field, every shot matters more than usual. This isn’t your typical PGA Tour event – we’re talking about playoff golf where careers can be made or broken over four days in Memphis.
What makes this tournament fascinating from a betting perspective is the unique pressure cooker atmosphere. Guys who’ve been comfortable all season suddenly find themselves fighting just to advance to the next round. Some players thrive under this kind of pressure, while others completely fold. That creates some incredible betting opportunities if you know what to look for.
The field is loaded this year, but let’s be honest – there’s one guy who’s been absolutely untouchable in 2025, and that’s Scottie Scheffler. The question isn’t whether he’ll contend, it’s whether anyone else can even get close to his level. But at +275, even the world’s best player might not offer the value we’re looking for.
About the Course
- Par 70
- Distance: 7,244 yards
- Designer: Ron Prichard renovation of original layout
- Key Features: Tree-lined fairways, strategic water hazards, firm bentgrass greens
- Signature Holes: Par-3 11th over water, risk-reward par-5 16th
- Scoring: Typically plays tough with winning scores around 10-15 under
TPC Southwind isn’t a birdie-fest like some other tour stops. This place demands precision off the tee, excellent iron play into small targets, and steady putting on tricky greens. The course has undergone significant renovations in recent years, but it still rewards the same skill set – guys who can manage their games, avoid big numbers, and capitalize when opportunities present themselves.
Water comes into play on several holes, most notably the par-3 11th and the finishing stretch. When the pressure is on and guys are trying to make moves, those hazards become even more dangerous. We’ve seen plenty of playoff dreams die in the Memphis water over the years.
Who to Bet This Weekend?
Viktor Hovland – To Win (+2200)
I’m backing Hovland as my main play this week, and at +2200, I think we’re getting tremendous value on a guy who’s perfectly suited for playoff golf. Hovland has been quietly excellent this season without grabbing all the headlines, and TPC Southwind sets up beautifully for his skill set.
What I love about Hovland here is his iron play – the guy is absolutely surgical with his approaches, which is crucial at Southwind. The greens here aren’t massive, and you need to be precise with your yardages and club selection. Hovland ranks in the top 10 on tour in strokes gained approach, and that’s exactly what wins tournaments at this venue.
The Norwegian has also shown he can handle pressure situations. He’s got multiple PGA Tour wins under his belt, including some big events, and he doesn’t get rattled when things get tense. In playoff golf, that composure is worth its weight in gold. Plus, at +2200, we’re getting odds that would have been unthinkable for a player of his caliber just a few years ago.
Xander Schauffele – Top 5 Finish (+275)
Schauffele is Mr. Consistency personified, and that’s exactly what you want in playoff golf. The guy has made a career out of showing up when it matters most, and TPC Southwind is the kind of course where steady, mistake-free golf gets rewarded.
What makes Xander such a great play for a top 5 bet is his incredible floor. Even when he’s not at his absolute best, he rarely falls off the map completely. He’s got the driving accuracy to find the fairways here, the iron play to attack pins when it’s smart, and the putting stroke to clean up when he needs to.
The playoffs have been kind to Schauffele historically. He knows how to peak at the right time, and with the added pressure of needing to advance, I expect him to be locked in from the first tee shot. At +275 for a top 5, we’re getting solid value on a player who should be much shorter in this market.
Tommy Fleetwood – To Win (+2500)
Fleetwood feels due for a breakthrough, and this could be the perfect spot. The Englishman has been knocking on the door of his first PGA Tour victory for what feels like forever, and the playoff atmosphere might be exactly what he needs to get over the finish line.
What strikes me about Fleetwood is how well his game travels. He’s comfortable in different conditions and on various course setups, which is valuable when you’re dealing with the unique pressure of playoff golf. His ball-striking has been phenomenal this season, and he’s shown flashes of the putting form that could make him dangerous.
The value here is obvious – we’re getting +2500 on a player who could easily be half those odds if he had just one PGA Tour win on his resume. Sometimes the best betting spots are on talented players who are due for positive variance, and Fleetwood fits that description perfectly.
Ben Griffin – Top 10 Finish (+250)
Griffin has been one of the stories of the 2025 season with his breakthrough victories, and I don’t think he’s done making noise. The guy has clearly figured something out this year, and his recent form suggests he’s comfortable playing with the big boys now.
What I like about Griffin for this spot is his aggressive approach to the game. He’s not going to play scared, which can be a huge advantage in playoff golf when some guys start getting conservative. Griffin has the length to take advantage of the par-5s at Southwind, and his improving short game should serve him well around these tricky greens.
The top 10 bet gives us some cushion while still cashing in on his excellent form. Griffin has shown he belongs in the upper echelon of tour players this year, and at +250, we’re getting fair odds on a guy who could easily find himself in contention come Sunday.
Justin Thomas – Top 5 Finish (+400)
JT is a proven big-game player who tends to elevate his performance when the stakes are highest. The playoffs are exactly the kind of environment where his talent and experience should shine through, and TPC Southwind has been kind to him in the past.
Thomas brings the complete package – he’s got the length to compete with anyone, the iron play to score on this course, and most importantly, the clutch gene that separates good players from great ones. When the pressure mounts on Sunday and guys start making mistakes, Thomas is usually the one capitalizing.
At +400 for a top 5, we’re getting reasonable value on a former major champion who knows how to perform under pressure. This is the kind of spot where class typically rises to the top, and Thomas has plenty of it.
Long Shot Specials
Harris English – To Win (+4000)
English is a guy who quietly goes about his business and could surprise some people this week. He’s got a solid all-around game that should translate well to Southwind, and at +4000, we’re getting huge odds on a player who’s capable of winning on any given week.
What I like about English is his consistency. He doesn’t have many terrible weeks, which means he’s always in position to make a move if things break his way. In a shorter field like this, that kind of steady play can be really valuable.
Russell Henley – Top 10 Finish (+175)
Henley is another consistent performer who should benefit from the smaller field. His putting has been excellent this season, and that’s always crucial at Southwind where the greens can be tricky to read.
Players to Avoid
Scottie Scheffler – To Win (+275)
Look, I love Scheffler’s game as much as anyone, and he’s obviously the best player in the world right now. But at +275 in a 70-man field, the value just isn’t there. Even the world’s best player wins less than 30% of the time at these odds, and in golf, anything can happen over four days.
I’d much rather spread my money around on some higher-value plays than tie up a big chunk of my bankroll on heavy chalk, even if that chalk is justified.
First Round Leader Plays
Getting off to a fast start is crucial in playoff golf, both for confidence and positioning. Here are my favorite first-round leader bets:
Viktor Hovland (+2500): His iron play should allow him to attack pins early when the greens are receptive.
Cameron Young (+3500): Young has shown he can go low when his putter cooperates, and first rounds are often where guys post their best numbers.
Betting Strategy for TPC Southwind
This course rewards patience and course management over pure aggression. Look for players who excel in strokes gained approach and putting, as those are the two most important skills here. Driving distance is less crucial than accuracy, so don’t get caught up in the bombers who can’t find fairways.
The playoff atmosphere adds another wrinkle. Some guys will be pressing trying to secure their spots for the next round, while others will be playing more conservatively to avoid big numbers. The sweet spot is finding players who are comfortable with the pressure and can stick to their game plans.
Weather could be a factor in Memphis, so keep an eye on the forecast. If wind picks up, it favors the better ball-strikers and makes the course even more demanding.
Final Thoughts
The FedEx Cup Playoffs are where legends are made and seasons are defined. This first event at TPC Southwind will set the tone for everything that follows, making it one of the most important tournaments of the year for both players and bettors.
My strategy this week is to focus on proven performers who have the game to succeed on this demanding layout. Viktor Hovland is my main play at +2200, with Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood providing solid value in different markets.
Remember, playoff golf is different from regular season events. The pressure is real, the field is smaller, and every shot carries more weight. Look for players who have thrived in big moments before and avoid anyone who tends to wilt under pressure.
As always, bet responsibly and never risk more than you can afford to lose. The playoffs are a marathon, not a sprint, so manage your bankroll accordingly and save some ammunition for the weeks ahead.
