World Wide Technology Championship
Thursday, Nov. 5 – Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026
El Cardonal at Diamante, Los Cabos, Mexico
Rookie Jackson Koivun opens as the favorite at around 11/1 (+1100) in early prices, and Ben Griffin returns to defend at 12/1. My pick to win is Ryan Gerard at 14/1 (+1400), the best player in the field who somehow isn’t the shortest price on the board.
Gerard is No. 23 in the world, the top-ranked player in Los Cabos, and his last two starts were third at the TOUR Championship and T4 in Japan. The market is paying him to show up as the third choice.
Tiger built a birdie buffet, so bring a big appetite
El Cardonal is Tiger Woods’ first design to host a Tour event, and it plays like he wanted everyone to have fun. It’s paspalum wall to wall, firm and fast in a desert that gets about six inches of rain a year, with huge corridors and no rough to speak of. Driving accuracy barely matters. The field averaged 68.898 last year, more than three under per round, and the last three winners went -27, -24 and -29.
The money holes are obvious. The par-5 1st played to 4.221 last year and gave up 30 eagles, the par-5 18th played 4.473, and the drivable par-4 10th (344 yards) and 3rd (351) are there for the taking. Hit wedges close, make putts, repeat.
The wind wants a say on Thursday and Friday. The early forecast has northwest gusts around 28 mph Thursday and 31 mph Friday before the weekend calms down to gusts around 18-20 mph, with highs in the mid-80s. So we get two days of a ball-striking test, then two days of a shootout. Players who keep their numbers in the wind early should be in position to go low on the weekend.
Why Gerard is the guy
Balance is what you want for a week like this. Gerard is 21st on Tour in Strokes Gained: Total, which is the all-in-one number for how many shots a player beats the field by. He’s 25th in putting, gains strokes off the tee and with his irons, and hits it 308 yards. He can handle the wind early and win the putting contest late.
He finished T14 at -15 here in 2024, and he’s hungry: eight top-10s in 2026, no win this season. And that third at East Lake in August came against a much tougher field than this one. I’d take him down to about 12/1.
The BEST 2026 Golf Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
Koivun is priced on a highlight reel
Koivun is a real talent. He won the 3M Open at -25 in his third career start and posted a winning record at the Presidents Cup. But the favorite should be the guy in the best form, and Koivun hasn’t hit a shot in a tournament since a T65 at the Bank of Utah on Oct. 4. He skipped Japan, Bermuda and Mexico. Since the 3M win it’s been T31, T29, T24, T5 and T65.
Now he shows up four weeks rusty, making his first start at El Cardonal, with 36 holes of wind to start. At 11/1 he’s the worst price on the board, and Gerard is the better player at a bigger number.
Griffin is different. The irons are shaky (101st on approach), but he owns the course record and finished T4 in Mexico last week. That’s a pass, not a fade.
Down the board: the best iron player in the field at 50/1
Ben Kohles (+5000) has the best numbers in this field by a mile. He’s fourth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Total, first in approach and first in driving accuracy at 79.35%. He’s made eight straight cuts, with a top-17 finish in each of his last four starts. When the gusts are near 30, the guy who keeps it in play and hits his irons closest should pick up shots. He’s short off the tee (151st) and finished T63 here in his only start, which is why he’s 50/1 and not 20/1.
Kristoffer Ventura (+4000) was T2 at the Mexico Open last week and locked up his card. He’s fifth on Tour off the tee, averages 313.8 yards and hits a decent number of fairways. That’s long and straight on a course with four reachable par 5s. The Mexico-born Norwegian was T27 here last year.
Jackson Suber (+4000) was T11 at -22 here in his only start and is 13th on Tour on approach. He hasn’t missed a cut since the 3M. The putter (132nd) is the problem, but on a wedge course he’ll give himself plenty of looks.
The case against me
Gerard’s short game is a weakness: he’s 135th around the green, and missed greens in a 30-mph wind can get expensive in a hurry. He’s also had three weeks off. The odds are early prices from a thin market, so shop before you bet. If the wind backs off Thursday and Friday, this turns into a pure putting contest and the winner gets closer to -27. Tee times post Tuesday, and a bad wave in the wind could bury anybody. Course horses like Garrick Higgo (T6, T4 here) and Sami Valimaki (T2 last year) are out of form but could pop.
Projected winning score: -24 (264). I expect the wind to take a few shots away early and a calm weekend to give them back. Somebody needs a big Sunday number, just like Griffin’s closing 63 last year.
The Pick: Ryan Gerard to win (+1400)
Value plays: Ben Kohles to win (+5000), Kristoffer Ventura to win (+4000), Jackson Suber to win (+4000), and Ben Kohles top-20 finish (playable at +200 or better).
Back the best player in the field at a price he shouldn’t be and bring some extra bankroll into tournament week. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Ryan Gerard and the rest of your World Wide Technology Championship picks.
