VidantaWorld Mexico Open
Thursday, Oct 29 – Sunday, Nov 1, 2026
Vidanta Vallarta, Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico
Wyndham Clark is expected to open as the favorite once the board posts (odds pending). My pick to win is Doug Ghim.
That’s not a typo, and it’s not a knock on Clark. The Mexico board still hadn’t posted early Monday, with Bermuda unfinished until Seamus Power and Austin Smotherman settle it in a Monday playoff, so nobody has a price yet. Fine by me, because this tournament doesn’t like favorites. Two of the last four winners here were longshots: Brian Campbell at about 250-1 last year and Jake Knapp at about 40-1 the year before.
A resort course that hands out birdies
Vidanta Vallarta is Greg Norman’s design along the Ameca River. It plays as a par 71 at 7,337 yards on the official card, with platinum paspalum on everything from tee to green. The landing areas are generous and the greens are huge. There are 55 bunkers and water in play on 13 holes, but in calm air this place gets taken apart. The last four winners finished between -17 and -24, and Tony Finau’s -24 in 2023 came in exactly the kind of weather we’re looking at this week. The forecast is hot and humid, with sustained wind in the single digits all four days.
Strokes gained tells you how many shots a player picks up on the field in each part of the game. Here, contenders have historically gained the most with their irons (about +0.96 shots per round on approach) and on the greens (+0.73). Top-10 finishers also gain about +0.60 off the tee. In plain English: hit it long enough, stuff your irons, and roll in a pile of putts. It’s a birdie race, not a grind.
Ghim already ran this exact race and nearly won it
Look at what Doug Ghim did at Black Desert a few weeks ago: runner-up at -24. That’s the top of the winning range here, and he got there in a full-field birdie shootout this fall. No one-week spike, either. Since a pair of summer missed cuts at the Scottish Open and the 3M, his run goes T15 at the Rocket, T19 at the Wyndham, T17 at the Biltmore, 2nd at Black Desert and T17 in Japan, with a T6 at the John Deere before that. He’s been cashing checks and hanging around the first page of the leaderboard all fall, and his trending strokes-gained number of +2.15 is among the best of anyone who can realistically win this week.
His game is built on ball-striking, and that matches what this course pays for. In light wind he just needs to keep firing at flags, which he’s done all fall.
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Why I’m passing on the guy with three trophies this year
Wyndham Clark has had a monster season: a -30 win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, the U.S. Open at Shinnecock, the BMW, and a 3rd at the Memorial. He’s No. 5 in the world and the only top-10 player in the field. He can absolutely win this.
The issue is the price he’ll carry. His last start was a flat T63 in Japan, his first since the TOUR Championship. His record here is a T24 and a T67. A single-digit number on a major champion in a $6 million fall event in a 120-man field that likes to spread the trophy around is a bet I’ll let someone else make. If he opens 12-1 or longer, I’ll ease off the fade.
Three longshots worth a few bucks. Harry Hall already knows how to score here. He’s gained about +1.28 strokes per round at Vidanta, and he arrives off a T5 at the Wyndham and a T13 at Black Desert. Ben James is making his debut, but he tops the field in recent strokes-gained form, and a wide, generous layout is a friendly place for a first-timer. Blades Brown is 19 and already 3rd on Tour in birdies per round. That’s exactly what a -20-something week demands, and his 3rd in Puerto Rico and T11 at Corales came on paspalum.
The top-20 bet. Johnny Keefer averages about 321 yards off the tee and keeps hitting greens. Length plus greens in regulation is the blueprint for big fairways and big putting surfaces. He’s coming off a T7 at the Biltmore and a T10 at Black Desert. His putter runs hot and cold, so the top-20 is the safer ask.
If a matchup shows up. If Ghim vs. Ben Griffin posts at close to even money, I’ll take Ghim. Griffin finished T4 here last year, so I respect him, but his trending strokes-gained number is -0.07 against Ghim’s +2.15. If Griffin is the underdog, pass.
The case against me
Ghim has never won on the PGA Tour, and closing is the one question his game hasn’t answered. Finau is the course horse of horses, with a win, a runner-up and +3.25 strokes gained per round over 12 rounds here. If he finds anything, he could ignore his recent slump. Then there’s the Bermuda overflow: Corey Conners arrives off a share of third, and Power and Smotherman are both reported to be headed to Vallarta after Monday’s playoff, so the winner could ride that wave straight into Thursday. And if the wind picks up midweek, this stops being a putting contest and the big hitters get a bigger edge.
How Sunday plays out
Calm conditions push the winning number to about -21 or -22. I see a crowded leaderboard, with Hall and Keefer in the mix, and Ghim finally getting his first win. Clark plays well and finishes inside the top 15, but at that price, playing well doesn’t pay.
The Pick: Doug Ghim to win (odds pending)
- Value plays to win: Harry Hall, Ben James, Blades Brown (odds pending)
- Top-20: Johnny Keefer (odds pending)
- Matchup (only near even money): Doug Ghim over Ben Griffin
- Fade: Wyndham Clark at a short price
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