Race: Cook Out 400
Date: Saturday, August 14, 2025
Track: Richmond International Speedway
Time: 7:30 pm ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
If NASCAR didn’t have oval tracks to contend with, SVG would be your uncontested winner, the Jimmie Johnson/Dale Earnhardt/Richard Petty of our time. Unfortunately for him, we’re back at the ovals this weekend. That didn’t stop him from crushing the competition and taking the win as predicted this weekend at Watkins Glen. This is his fourth win on the season, tying veteran Denny Hamlin and earning him top rookie status at this point. It’s truly the stuff that dreams are made of. SVG drove through the field and came back to over an 11-second lead to win the race ahead of Christopher Bell.
SVG was a tremendous force, leading a race-high 38 of 90 laps and coming to the checkered flag without any contention. Bell passed Buescher for the runner-up spot, and that was the extent of racing for anything else remotely near the lead. It was redemption for SVG, who had a runner-up finish here last year. He did a phenomenal job of executing at a high level, paying off with his fifth Cup Series victory.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, he’s going to have to put his oval-winning shoes on because the drivers and teams are heading to Richmond for the second-to-last race of the regular season. This track is a 0.75-mile asphalt oval, giving us some Iowa-style vibes. The turns are 14 degrees, with the front stretch coming in at just 8 degrees and a small 2 degrees on the backstretch. Richmond has become a track that requires drivers to get to the front and stay there. It’s easy to get lapped but hard to pass. Leaders typically drive away and leave little behind them in terms of being caught. Tire strategy does play into the game, but making no mistakes on pit road seems to be more critical these days. Depending on how the track comes in under the lights, we’ll have to see how it plays out.
Odds and Value Picks
Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into the this weekend:
Winner: Denny Hamlin (+400)
Hamlin is clearly the best driver in the last six races with two wins, an average finish of 5th, and 259 laps led. Hamlin is the guy to beat this weekend.
Mid-Range Pick: Kyle Busch (+2800)
Okay. This is a sympathy vote, but it’s also based on stats. He’s struggled. There’s no doubt about it, but he’s got six career wins here and the best average finish in career starts out of active drivers. I’m throwing him a bone in his hour of desperation. Between Richmond and Daytona, Kyle’s best shot is this weekend to get his place secured in the playoffs.
Dark Horse: Josh Berry (+3000)
Berry is still looking for a win this season, but don’t count him out. With three starts, he’s got an average finish of 9th and has even led some laps. Richmond is one of his stronger tracks, so look for this guy to make some moves this weekend.
All of the drivers are going to be cutthroat with just these two races remaining until the playoffs. Here’s a look at your current top 16 after Watkins Glen:
- William Byron
- Chase Elliott
- Denny Hamlin
- Christopher Bell
- Kyle Larson
- Ryan Blaney
- Tyler Reddick
- Chase Briscoe
- Alex Bowman
- Chris Buescher
- Bubba Wallace
- Ryan Preece
- Joey Logano
- Ross Chastain
- Kyle Busch
- Austin Cindric
Looking purely at the playoff picture with wins, there are 13 drivers locked into a spot. The three drivers “on the bubble” include Reddick, Bowman, and Buescher. They are the only ones in that top group without a win and are in danger of being knocked out if we have a new winner at Richmond or Daytona. These last couple of races, a short track and a super speedway, albeit, are definitely going to be an exciting way to close out the regular season. Stay tuned to see who will capture the victory under the lights at Richmond this weekend!
