Race: Mobile 1 301
Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
Track: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Time: 2 pm ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Christopher Bell was the final victor in the final night race of the year, also securing his place in the Round of 12! In a race that started in sheer chaos, Bell landed where he needed to be when it mattered most on the last lap. He was able to push through the tire challenges that plagued so many and even ruined strategies. Even though he only led 12 laps, he led the only one that mattered. Bell won with a 0.343s margin over Brad Keselowski.
Brad was fighting hard and even have Bell a solid slam into the final corner but it wasn’t enough to throw Bell off. For Keselowski, it was a tough loss after trying so hard to get to victory lane this year. He picked the wrong lane and just couldn’t “launch” on the restart, giving Bell just enough of the lead to get the win. It was a perfect sweep for JGR in the Round of 16, with Bell, Hamlin, and Briscoe moving forward after wins. Ty Gibbs had a stellar run, leading 201 laps but having a fatal pit stop error by overshooting pit road on the final green flag stop. That resulted in a 10th-place finish for their team. The Round of 16 saw our four cutoff drivers fall off the radar for the championship. Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, and Josh Berry will all have to wait until next year for another shot.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
The Round of 12 kicks off this weekend in New Hampshire. This 1.058 asphalt oval has 2-7 degrees of progressive banking through the turns and 1 degree of banking on the straights. I don’t think we’re going to see the same sort of tire situation that we saw at Bristol, but you better believe that track position is going to be very important here. Because it’s a shorter flat track, you’ll see some similarities to World Wide Technology Raceway and even Phoenix. If drivers thrive on those tracks, they’ll likely do well here at New Hampshire.
Odds and Value Picks
Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race:
Winner: Kyle Larson (+800)
In the last three races, Larson has the best average finish among all active drivers at 7th place with 2 top 5s and a worst finish of 14th. He’s still looking for the elusive win, but Larson is here to play and here to win. I think he’s going to show up this weekend.
Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski (+2500)
Keselowski is hungry for a win. Any win. This guy still has what it takes and had a strong run last week for a 2nd place finish.
With two wins in 24 starts and 598 laps led, Brad knows what it takes to win here. He’s going to be up front on Sunday.
Dark Horse: Josh Berry (+3500)
He may have fallen out of contention after last weekend, but that doesn’t mean he is out of the running for a win. Berry is gaining some traction and looking for a solid weekend. He’s only got one start under his belt, but it was a strong 3rd place. Look for Berry to be in contention when it matters most!
Your top 12 are your current contenders for the championship. Here are your points standings after Bristol:
- Denny Hamlin
- William Byron
- Kyle Larson
- Christopher Bell
- Ryan Blaney
- Chase Briscoe
- Chase Elliott
- Bubba Wallace
- Austin Cindric
- Joey Logano
- Ross Chastain
- Tyler Reddick
Cindric, Logano, Chastain, and Reddick are all below the cutoff line. There are three races before the Round of 8 takes off, and these guys are needing a win. As the season continues to wind down, these guys are going to take bigger risks and look for any way to capture that checkered flag. Stay tuned for a great weekend of racing as these guys tackle the first in the Round of 12!
