Race: Hollywood Casino 400 Presented by ESPN Bet
Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
Track: Kansas Speedway
Time: 3pm ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Ryan Blaney was the lucky winner of the first race in the Round of 12, securing his spot in the next round of the playoffs. He won by a strong 0.937-second margin over second-place Josh Berry, who gave a very strong run in the closing 20 laps of the race. In fact, Blaney clearly indicated that he knew Berry was charging but still did his best to maintain composure and take care of his equipment to get to victory lane. Berry had every opportunity to take Blaney out with his bumper, but he chose to remain a class act and drove a very clean race.
It was evident throughout the race that four tires made all the difference in picking up track position, noted by Logano. He realized he didn’t have any chance against Blaney, who was also the fastest in practice. Overall, it was a strong day for both Ford and Chevy, taking 6 of the top 7 spots in a playoff space that’s been dominated by Toyota sweeping the first three wins. For the Chevy guys, especially, it was a great showing. William Byron had his best New Hampshire finish, coming home 3rd, and recognizing that his short track program is finally starting to come together. This is promising for his team as they head into next week’s race at Kansas.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
Kansas is not a short track but rather an intermediate 1.5-mile asphalt tri-oval. The 17-20 degrees of progressive banking in the turns, 10 degrees on the frontstretch, and 5 degrees on the backstretch allow the drivers to carry some serious momentum through this place. Speeds are high and brake utilization is low. Track position will be everything, with tires not being quite as much of a concern as we saw in the last couple of races. Depending on the green flag runs, tires won’t dictate too much of this race, but pit road mistakes will be costly.
Odd and Value Picks
Here’s a look at your potential winners heading into Sunday’s race:
Winner: Kyle Larson (+350)
In his last 7 starts, Larson has 2 wins, 5 top 5 finishes, and 497 laps led. Quite frankly, beat that. It’s going to be tough. In the case of total career starts, Larson sits behind Elliott, Truex Jr., and ties Bell for 3rd third-best average finish. He has 3 total career wins. This guy is looking to solidify his place in the Round of 12. This is his weekend to do it.
Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski (+2800)
Say what you want, but Brad is good here. He has 31 career starts with 2 wins and 14 top 10s. He’s led a total of 355 laps across those races and sits at a 6th-best average finish amongst all drivers. Keselowski isn’t done for the season. This guy is still hungry and will use Kansas to his advantage.
Dark Horse: Josh Berry (+3300)
He’s not the best here. He’s proven that. But he’s also proven that he’s doing better each and every race. Berry had a very strong run against Blaney last weekend and is coming in hot this weekend, looking for another confidence-building race. This is another opportunity for this team to set the stage and continue to build their foundation.
All of these guys have a different agenda when it comes to winning, but the bottom line is they all want to do it. Here’s a look at your current top 12 heading into New Hampshire:
- Ryan Blaney
- William Byron
- Kyle Larson
- Christopher Bell
- Denny Hamlin
- Joey Logano
- Chase Elliott
- Chase Briscoe
- Ross Chastain
- Austin Cindric
- Tyler Reddick
- Bubba Wallace
Bubba is sitting 27 points below the cutoff, with Briscoe sitting just 12 points above the line. Each of these drivers has a lot of work to do to maintain their position or lock themselves into the next round. There’s no easy answer other than to win, but there’s no easy path to victory lane either. With all teams running on different strategies with different end goals, they will have to work together to stay in their own lanes and avoid contact, leading to chaos. Stay tuned for another great afternoon of racing at Kansas Speedway!
