Race: YellaWood 500
Date: Sunday, October 19, 2025
Track: Talladega Superspeedway
Time: 2 pm ET
Channel: NBC
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
It’s hard to believe, but only three races remain in this year’s 2025 NASCAR Cup Series. With two races remaining until the championship trophy is awarded, Denny Hamlin pulled a fast one and earned his way into the final 4, passing Kyle Larson and teammate Chase Briscoe to secure an opportunity to fight for the elusive championship that he so desperately wants. For Denny, it was his 6th win of the year, leading Larson to the checkered flag by 1.533 seconds. Hamlin was unusually emotional, climbing from the car with tears in his eyes. Notably moved by his father’s current ailments, Hamlin was clearly pleased to get the 60th win of his career on Sunday. The four-tire stop in the closing laps made all the difference for the team and allowed them to move past everyone in dominant fashion.
For Larson, it was disappointing to note that he led a race-high 129 of 267 laps. He still held his head high, recognizing the strength of the Toyotas on the short runs, with Hamlin clearly executing at a high level and making all the right moves. Hamlin’s finish puts him a relatively secure 35 points above the cut line. The overall finish was fairly representative of the playoff field, with 4 of the top 6 finishers being title hopefuls, including Hamlin, Larson, Christopher Bell, and Chase Briscoe. Briscoe’s strong finish definitely helped to give more confidence heading into the next two races. NASCAR made it a doozy to get to the final round. This weekend, the drivers and teams head to Talladega, followed by the final race in the Round of 8 at Martinsville.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
To think that Talladega is our next race is pretty wild. This 2.66-mile asphalt tri-oval boasts 22 degrees of banking in the turns, with 16.5 degrees through the tri-oval and 2 degrees on the straights. This place is fast. Although we don’t see the same speeds we used to see way back in the golden days of NASCAR, it’s still a place where brakes are only used on pit road and drivers must stay with the draft, or they’re going to be left out to dry. Having friends is to your benefit, but how many drivers actually have friends with just two races until the championship? They must be smart. We see a lot of manufacturers staying allegiant to the cause on these superspeedways, knowing what to expect out of their cars.
Odds and Value Picks
Who will take home the win this weekend and potentially lock their spot into the final round of 4? Let’s take a look at your potential winners:
Winner: William Byron (+1600)
Byron is sitting with the best average finish in the last seven races, confidently over Chase Elliot by almost four positions. With 3 top 5s and 5 top 10s, Byron knows how to navigate this track. He’s had some challenges as of late and is currently 15 points below the cutoff line. This puts him in a position where he needs a solid run. Byron will have to do his best to stay out of the mix-ups and run a clean race. He’s got the talent. Can he rise to the challenge?
Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski (+1600)
Bad Brad is just someone who excels here. He has a huge range of experience with 33 Talladega starts under his belt. Although he hasn’t won here in the last few years, he has six wins altogether, the most of any current active driver. If Brad and Co. can put together a half-decent ride, they should be fighting for a win. He’s wanted nothing more than a win this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the team and the weekend to throw a wrench in the entire championship outlook. Brad will be racing hard and fighting for victory lane this weekend.
Dark Horse: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Another potential guy to throw a wrench in the field is Stenhouse. He has the 4th-best average finish in total career starts with two wins to show for it as well. He’s had his fair share of challenges as well, but Stenhouse is looking for some redemption as the season winds down. If there’s a chance that he is going to win, it’s going to be at one of these wild-card races. Look for Stenouse to be in the mix on Sunday.
The points are definitely shaky right now. With just two races in this Round of 8 remaining, here’s a look at where everyone stands heading into Talladega:
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Larson
- Christopher Bell
- Chase Briscoe
- William Byron
- Chase Elliott
- Joey Logano
- Ryan Blaney
Blaney has his work cut out for him as well. He’s sitting 31 points below the cutoff line with only Talladega and Martinsville to go. Barring any catastrophic events, he’s in a must-win position. Byron is really the only guy who can reasonably point his way in without a win. The Toyotas are dominating the field right now. Will they dominate this weekend at Talladega? Stay tuned to see if we have another playoff winner or if someone else will fool the field and take advantage of the chaos that is Talladega!
