Toronto Blue Jays (97-71) at Seattle Mariners (95-74)
When: Tuesday, October 15, 2025, 8:08 PM ET
Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Betting Odds
Money Line: TOR +110 / SEA -130
Run Line: TOR +1.5 (-200) / SEA -1.5 (+165)
Total: 7.0 (o -120 / u +100)
The Seattle Mariners hold a commanding 2-0 lead in this ALCS after taking both games in Toronto, but history suggests the Blue Jays aren’t done yet. With Shane Bieber on the mound and a remarkable track record at T-Mobile Park, Toronto presents serious value as +110 underdogs in Game 3. The Jays are riding a wave of momentum in this specific venue, having won their last five straight games in Seattle, and tonight’s matchup sets up beautifully for them to cut into that series deficit.
Sharp Money Take
The market opened Toronto at +115 and has moved to +110, with Seattle shifting from -127 to -130. That’s not significant movement by MLB standards, but what’s notable is the betting trends working heavily in Toronto’s favor. The Jays are 5-0 straight up in their last five trips to T-Mobile Park, and they’re 5-0 against the spread in those same games. Seattle, conversely, is 0-5 ATS when hosting Toronto in their last five meetings at home.
We’re also seeing Toronto cash at 7-3 straight up in their last 10 overall, while the Mariners are showing cracks with a 2-4 straight up record in their last six home games despite their recent success. The smart money appears to be fading Seattle’s inflated line based on the 2-0 series lead rather than focusing on the individual game matchup.
Key Matchup Analysis
Shane Bieber brings an elite track record against Seattle to the mound. In his last three starts versus the Mariners, Bieber has been nearly untouchable, posting a microscopic 0.33 ERA across 18.1 innings. He’s averaging 6.1 innings per start against Seattle with a ridiculous 7.0 strikeouts per game and just 0.3 earned runs allowed. The Mariners simply haven’t figured him out.
Meanwhile, George Kirby takes the ball for Seattle with a 4.10 ERA and coming off three straight decisions against Detroit where he went 1-2. His last outing saw him earn a win, but he’s been inconsistent down the stretch. More importantly, this is a revenge spot for Toronto after dropping the first two games in their own building.
Toronto’s offense has been explosive in Seattle historically, and they’re averaging 4.98 runs per game on the season, ranking 3rd in MLB. Against Seattle’s home defense that allows 3.71 runs per game at T-Mobile Park, the Jays have the firepower to break through.
Situational Factors
This is a classic “backs against the wall” scenario for Toronto. Down 2-0 in a playoff series with a chance to get back in it at home—well, technically Seattle’s home, but a venue where they’ve owned the Mariners. Teams in this situation often play with desperation, and the Jays have the pitching matchup to capitalize.
Seattle’s bullpen has been worked hard, throwing 19 innings over their last three games compared to Toronto’s 16 innings. While both pens are relatively fresh, the Mariners might be feeling the grind more after two high-leverage wins. Toronto’s bullpen owns a 3.42 ERA with key arms like Seranthony Dominguez and Jeff Hoffman available, while Seattle’s pen sits at 3.25 ERA but has been leaned on heavily.
The venue factor can’t be ignored either. Seattle is just 2-4 ATS in their last six home games, and the over has hit in 5 of 5 when these teams meet at T-Mobile Park. But tonight’s total sits at just 7.0, and with Bieber’s dominance, we might see a lower-scoring affair than recent history suggests.
Statistical Edges
Let’s break down the key numbers working in Toronto’s favor:
Bieber owns Seattle. That 0.33 ERA in three career starts against them isn’t a fluke—it’s dominance. He’s held them to an average of just 5.7 hits per start and has walked virtually nobody with 0 walks in his last three outings against the Mariners.
Toronto is 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games against Seattle overall, showing consistent value against this opponent regardless of venue. They’re also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, demonstrating strong recent form despite the 0-2 series hole.
The head-to-head splits are striking: Toronto is 6-4 straight up against Seattle this season with an 8-2 over/under record. But when you drill down to Seattle home games, the Jays have been money, winning five straight and covering in all of them.
Seattle’s offense ranks 10th in MLB at 4.72 runs per game, but at home they drop to 4.29 runs per game (18th). Toronto’s road defense, while ranked 22nd at 4.76 runs allowed, gets a massive boost with Bieber on the bump.
The Verdict
This line feels off. Toronto at +110 with Shane Bieber—who’s been untouchable against Seattle—represents legitimate value. The Jays are desperate, they’ve dominated at this venue, and they have the pitching advantage in a must-win spot. Seattle might be up 2-0, but they’re catching a team that’s played their best baseball in this exact building.
I’m backing Toronto on the moneyline at +110 for 2 units. Bieber’s track record against the Mariners is too strong to ignore, and the situational angle of a team fighting to stay alive in a place they’ve consistently won makes this a high-value play. If you want to play it safer, the Jays +1.5 at -200 is steep juice, but it gives you insurance in what should be a competitive game.
For the total, I’m leaning under 7.0 at +100 for 1 unit. While these teams have gone over in five straight at T-Mobile Park, Bieber’s presence changes everything. His ability to shut down Seattle’s lineup should keep this game lower-scoring than the market expects, especially with both bullpens relatively fresh.
Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline +110
