Learn how to attack divisional rivalries with Chad Fox. Get his expert predictions and high-value free pick for Sunday’s AFC North battle.
Setting the Stage
If you’re just getting into NFL betting, this is a great game to learn from. Both the Steelers and Ravens come in at 6–6, but how they got there looks very different. Baltimore started 1–5 and has been climbing out of a hole. Pittsburgh started stronger and has been sliding, including that rough 26–7 home loss to Buffalo.
This is where the point spread helps you read the truth behind the records. Baltimore is favored by about a touchdown at home despite the same win–loss mark. That’s the market’s way of saying, “These teams are not equal right now.” When you see a spread that looks big for two .500 teams, it usually means one is trending up and the other is leaking oil.
Game Details
Date: Sunday, December 7
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
TV: CBS
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Ravens -5.5 | -115 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 43.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Ravens -275 / Steelers +225 | – |
Quick translation for newer bettors: Baltimore -5.5 means the Ravens need to win by 6 or more for a spread bet on them to cash. The total of 43.5 is a bet on whether both teams combine to score 44 or more (the over) or 43 or fewer (the under). On the moneyline, you’d risk $275 to win $100 on the Ravens just to win the game, or risk $100 to win $225 if you take the Steelers to win outright.
How the Line Is Speaking
You’ll see Ravens -5.5 or -6 at most spots, and the total hovering around that 43 range. That tells us two things:
- Books see Baltimore as clearly better right now, but not in “blowout” territory.
- The total suggests a fairly tight, lower-scoring game — not a shootout.
One important note: if the Ravens were truly rolling and Pittsburgh were completely collapsing, this line would likely sit closer to -7 or higher. The fact it’s stopped short of that key number suggests there’s at least some respect for Pittsburgh’s ability to hang around.
Matchup in Plain English
The biggest story on the field is how each team handles scoring chances.
Baltimore: The Ravens move the ball well between the 20s. They’re more explosive on offense than Pittsburgh, but they’ve struggled this year once they get into scoring range. Too many drives are ending in field goals instead of touchdowns, and that keeps opponents in games.
Pittsburgh: The Steelers’ offense has been streaky. They’re not putting up big numbers week after week, but their defense keeps them in most games. They’re better at tightening up in the red zone and forcing opponents to settle for three points instead of seven.
In a matchup like this, where both teams know each other well, red-zone execution and mistakes often decide the spread more than pure yardage totals.
Why Some Bettors Lean Steelers
Even though the Ravens are the home favorite, there are a few reasons people will look at the Steelers plus the points:
- Turnovers: Pittsburgh has been better at winning the turnover battle over the course of the season. In a tight division game, one takeaway can flip both the scoreboard and the spread.
- Divisional familiarity: These two teams see each other every year. Historically, a lot of these games stay close, and the underdog often finds a way to stay inside the number.
- Under tendencies: Recent meetings between these teams have leaned low-scoring. That kind of environment naturally helps the side catching points.
That doesn’t mean the Steelers are the “right” side automatically — it just explains why you’ll see interest on Pittsburgh +5.5 in what feels like an old-school AFC North battle.
Chad’s Favorite Angle
Best Bet: Under 43.5 Points
This matchup checks a lot of boxes for an under:
- Baltimore moves the ball but has struggled to finish drives with touchdowns.
- Pittsburgh’s offense is average at best and has leaned on defense to stay competitive.
- Both defenses know the other team’s personnel and tendencies extremely well.
- Recent meetings between these teams have landed on the lower side more often than not.
Think of this as a game where both teams are willing to punt, play field position, and take the points when they’re there. That usually keeps totals under control.
Side Lean
Secondary Lean: Steelers +5.5
If you want action on the spread, taking the underdog plus the points is the more comfortable side for me. Pittsburgh has a defense capable of keeping this within one score, and Baltimore’s red-zone issues make it harder for them to run away from anybody.
I don’t love Pittsburgh to win outright, but in a game lined in the mid-40s with two familiar opponents, grabbing more than a field goal with the dog makes sense.
What to Watch For
- Lamar Jackson’s legs: If he looks explosive as a runner again, it raises Baltimore’s scoring ceiling. If he’s limited, that favors the under even more.
- Early turnovers: The first giveaway in games like this can dictate how aggressive or conservative the rest of the game is.
- Weather at M&T Bank: December wind or rain can make passing tougher and lean even harder toward a run-heavy script and lower totals.
- Red-zone decisions: Watch whether Baltimore settles for field goals or finishes drives. That’s the difference between a 23–16 type final and something that threatens the over.
Final Thoughts
This one looks and feels like a typical AFC North game — physical, competitive, and more about who avoids the big mistake than who lights up the scoreboard. Baltimore deserves to be favored, but the combination of their red-zone problems and Pittsburgh’s defensive toughness points more clearly to the total than the spread.
Final Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Steelers 16
