Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
Saturday, August 22, 2026
10:00 PM ET, State Farm Stadium
Saturday night’s late window game in Glendale is one of the more interesting spread situations on the Week 2 board, and the value is on the road team taking the points.
The Cardinals are 1.5-point home favorites with a total of 37.5. The spread has been stable since opening, but here’s what makes it interesting: the moneyline pricing on both teams is essentially pick ’em, with Dallas at -102 and Arizona at -118. When a preseason spread shows one team as the favorite but the moneyline says the game is essentially a coin flip, that’s the market telling you the -1.5 spread doesn’t reflect the actual competitive balance. It’s giving you free value on the underdog getting the hook and a half.
Here’s why the numbers look the way they do.
Arizona is playing its third preseason game of 2026. The Cardinals were the AFC-NFC representatives in the Hall of Fame Game on August 6, losing 33-30 to Carolina. They then beat the Raiders 27-14 in Week 1. Now they’re getting ready for their third exhibition, which is an unusual amount of preseason work for one team. Third preseason games tend to feature more starter minimization than second preseason games because coaches have already gotten most of their evaluation data. Mike LaFleur is a first-year head coach still figuring out his rotation, and he’s had more preseason snaps to work with than most of his coaching peers. That means fewer starter reps on Saturday night.
The Cowboys, by contrast, are playing their second game of the preseason after opening with a 17-7 win over the Seahawks. Dallas was efficient in that opener — 338 total yards, 11-of-15 on third downs, and only seven points allowed. That kind of performance in a preseason opener tells you something about roster depth. Brian Schottenheimer is entering his second year as head coach, and the Cowboys have built better cohesion around their offensive line and running game than they’ve had in recent years.
Dak Prescott didn’t play in the opener and likely won’t play much Saturday either. Same with Kyler Murray — well, he’s not on the Cardinals anymore. He’s the Vikings starter now. Arizona is working through a rebuilt quarterback room with new signal caller Kyle Trask leading the group and rookie Carson Beck getting extended looks after an impressive Hall of Fame Game debut where he went 15-of-19 for 188 yards and a touchdown.
Two backup-heavy quarterback rooms is where the value opens up on the underdog. When both teams are cycling through second and third-string QBs, the team with more established depth wins more preseason games than the market prices in. Dallas has that depth advantage.
There’s also an injury factor working in Dallas’s favor. The Cardinals lost running back Love for at least a week to an ankle injury he suffered in the Raiders game, which further thins Arizona’s backfield rotation for Saturday. Dallas has been reasonably healthy through camp and has a deeper skill position group to run out in the second and third quarters when preseason games get decided.
The 1.5 points is generous for a road team that beat a Super Bowl champion in Week 1 while surrendering just 7 points. Combine that with the moneyline pricing suggesting the market sees this as essentially a coin flip, the injury edge, and the depth advantage, and this is a spot where the value has been sitting on Dallas since the opening line hit the board.
I looked at the total too. The 37.5 is fair given both teams’ offensive production in preseason so far, but preseason totals with two rotating QB rooms can easily go either direction. The side gives me the cleaner read.
The Pick: Dallas Cowboys +1.5
