If you’re looking to fade the “Road Course King” at Circuit of the Americas, you’re basically donating to your local sportsbook. Ms. V breaks down why Shane Van Gisbergen is the ultimate best bet this Sunday, sporting a win percentage that makes the rest of the field look like amateur hour.
Race: DuraMax Texas Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne
Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
Track: Circuit of the Americas
Time: 3:30pm ET
Channel: FOX
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Tyler Reddick does it again! Who would’ve thunk it? Reddick was right where he needed to be for both the Daytona 500 and this past weekend’s race at EchoPark Speedway to sweep the wins for the first two races of the 2026 season. Some would call that dumb luck, but Reddick was strategically positioned in both instances to capitalize on unfortunate circumstances fully. On the race Sunday, Reddick remained a fierce competitor for a majority of the race, so it was no wonder he was able to come home with the checkered flag.
The wilder part was that he was missing a whole right front fender, but somehow still managed to work out the aero on this super speedway style track. He clearly has the speed piece figured out. His 23XI teammate, Bubba Wallace, had the win all but locked up when he got to the high side, and Reddick blew past him on the bottom. Bubba got shuffled with a few other drivers in the final push to the checkered flag in the double overtime finish. Chase Briscoe, Ross Chastain, Carson Hocevar, and Daniel Suarez finished out the top 5 spots. Shane Van Gisbergen, Zane Smith, Bubba Wallace, Ryan Preece, and Ryan Blaney rounded out the top 10. The race boasted 57 lead changes and 10 cautions for a total of 67 laps.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers are literally switching gears, moving from two superspeedways to their first road course of the year at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas. The NASCAR circuit that they run here is 2.4 miles with 17 total turns. Previously, NASCAR ran the full 3.426-mile course in its inaugural race back in 2021. As of 2025, the NASCAR teams run the shorter 2.4-mile course for both Cup and Xfinity races. The track is the third-longest road course in NASCAR at this time, with many of the turns proving to be technically challenging throughout the course.
Odds and Value Picks
As with all road courses, you will consistently hear the mantra of fuel mileage and tires being the biggest concerns. In my opinion, I don’t think that fuel mileage will be as big a concern with the stage racing currently in place. Track position and even qualifying position are critical elements to success here. You will often see that it is hard for these guys to pass, especially on tracks with many turns. The opportunities to do it safely without jeopardizing your equipment are few and far between. Tire strategy will also play a key role, with drivers having to be heavy on the brakes, often wearing out tires sooner than on most ovals on the schedule.
When it comes to picking a winner, there are many drivers who have a finesse for road courses. Undoubtedly, the best driver entering the field on Sunday is going to be SVG. He is the class of the field, bar none. Let’s take a look at your complete list of potential winners heading into Sunday’s race:
Winner: Shane Van Gisbergen (EVEN)
With 9 wins in 21 starts across all of the NASCAR series, SVG is second for all-time road course wins. That’s nearly a 43% win record. That’s UNREAL. Based on his extensive Supercar experience, he has a knack for these tracks and the ability to be successful, unlike any other driver out there. We talked about tire strategy, and this guy knows how to manage them better than anyone. SVG will win on Sunday.
Mid-Range Pick: Ross Chastain (+3300)
Chastain has an average finish of 5.6 in 5 starts with one win. Three of those finishes have been top-five runs. Chastain has shown promise in our opening races of the 2026 season, and he’s looking to capitalize where he can. Look for him to be competitive and at the front of the pack on Sunday.
Dark Horse: AJ Allmendinger (+3000)
The Dinger has 49 starts and 3 wins in road and street courses and tends to do his best work at these tracks. He’s 13th best on the all-time average finish list with those numbers and has a recent win within the last 3 years as well. AJ will have one of his best finishes of the season this weekend.
Atlanta didn’t change the points up too much, especially at the top with Reddick winning two weekends in a row. This weekend might throw a little wrench in things with it being a road course and all. Let’s take a look at your current top 16 after the race at EchoPark Speedway:
Current Top 16 Standings After EchoPark Speedway
- Tyler Reddick
- Bubba Wallace
- Chase Elliott
- Carson Hocevar
- Zane Smith
- Joey Logano
- Daniel Suarez
- Ryan Blaney
- Brad Keselowski
- Chris Buescher
- Ross Chastain
- Noah Gragson
- William Byron
- Ryan Preece
- Chase Briscoe
- Shane Van Gisbergen
AJ Allmendinger is just outside the top 16 in 18th place, 2 points behind SVG. This weekend should give him a good boost. SVG will move up well in the rankings with this road course opportunity. It’s been a tough go of it so far for drivers like Kyle Larson, who have strong runs and get caught in the mess of what super speedways bring. I’m not sure that road courses will be much different, but it’s another chance to have a better weekend. Let’s see how things shake up after this weekend’s exciting road course at Circuit of the Americas!
