After a redemptive victory in Las Vegas, Denny Hamlin heads to Darlington as the statistical favorite. Ms. V’s handicapping points to Hamlin’s elite 9.3 average finish over his last six starts at the track as a primary reason he remains the man to beat. With Toyotas showing superior speed recently, the situational spot heavily favors the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran.
Race: Goodyear 400
Date: Sunday March 22, 2026
Track: Darlington Raceway
Time: 3pm ET
Channel: FS1
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
After leading 134 laps, Denny Hamlin finally got a little slice of redemption with a win Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Hamlin has seen his fair share of struggles over the last few years, most recently with his father passing away in a house fire. Hamlin worked diligently last year to bring home a championship, knowing his dad was struggling with his health before the fire. Unfortunately, it didn’t pan out, leaving Denny questioning whether he was even going to get back into a car after the 2025 season. Fortunately, he stuck with it and now has 61 wins to show for it. He defended his Las Vegas title this year and is giving us a teaser of what he hopes is a profitable 2026 season that leads to the elusive championship.
Hamlin took the win over Hendrick teammates Chase Elliott and William Byron, followed by Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs. Chris Buescher, Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, and Brad Keselowski rounded out the top 10 spots. Toyotas were the class of the field on Sunday, with 5 of the top 10 spots being captured by the manufacturer that has speed figured out. Chevy took three of the top 10 spots, with Ford capturing the remaining two slots. I’m not sure, and apparently neither is Chevrolet, what Chevy is doing. They don’t have a car…it’s literally just a Chevy, with promises of a new model name in 2027. They haven’t quite figured out downforce and aero with the body they have, so the season is a little iffy for the manufacturer if I’m being honest. I’m sure they’ll be fine, but they definitely have some kinks to work out.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
Darlington should be a little nicer to them, with aero not being quite as important as the drivers and teams head across country to the South Carolina track. This place is much different than Las Vegas and, quite frankly, just different from anything. It’s an egg shape, notably due to leaving a pond on the property during construction. This track is known as “The Lady in Black” and “The Track Too Tough To Tame”. It’s a 1.366-mile asphalt oval with 25 degrees of banking through 1 and 2, 23 degrees through 3 and 4, and 6 degrees on both stretches. Oftentimes, drivers end of tubing their cars correctly for one set of turns, sacrificing handling on the other end of the track. Darlington’s preferred groove is the top line, right next to the wall. That term, Darlington stripe, it’s the wall. The wall is the problem. The abrasiveness of the surface, coupled with the high line groove, creates a lot of problems, causing many guys to get loose and tag the wall throughout the race. Tires can also become a huge concern because of both the surface and also just getting into that outside wall. Flat tires are often a byproduct of either of those factors.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner, look at your veterans. Rookies struggle here. It’s not a track for the faint of heart, and understanding the “personality” of Darlington is critical to running well. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race:
Winner: Denny Hamlin (+400)
I hate picking the guy who just won a race to be the winner the following weekend, but the stats don’t lie here. In the last 6 races at Darlington, Hamlin has the best average finish out of all drivers at 9.3, and also a win. He’s led 230 laps and hasn’t finished worse than 25. Hamlin’s experience here will be tough to beat.
Mid-Range Pick: Bubba Wallace (+2200)
Bubba has been consistently in the top so far this year. At Darlington, he’s vastly improved as the years have gone on, firmly sitting as the third-best average finisher in his last 6 starts. Wallace doesn’t have a win here. Yet.
Dark Horse: Ty Gibbs (+2500)
Gibbs isn’t notably stellar here. In fact, he’s not notably stellar anywhere. He won’t be until he is. This year has proven that Gibbs is here for the party. He’s performing better than he ever has and is looking for a win. This just might be his wheelhouse this weekend.
Gibbs jumped 5 spots after his solid run at Vegas and is looking to capitalize on that momentum with Darlington on Sunday. I anticipate some shifts in points after this race, but let’s see where our top group sits after Vegas:
- Tyler Reddick
- Bubba Wallace
- Ryan Blaney
- Denny Hamlin
- Chase Elliott
- Christopher Bell
- Kyle Larson
- William Byron
- Chris Buescher
- Ty Gibbs
- Joey Logano
- Brad Keselowski
- Ryan Preece
- Michael McDowell
- Carson Hocevar
- Shane Van Gisbergen
Gisbergen was the biggest loser of the day, to be honest. He struggled early on and just never got himself back together. Darlington may not be any kinder to him. Joey Logano and Michael McDowell also lost some significant points on the day last weekend. Michael Jordan is sitting pretty right now, though. His drivers are really on top of their game. Can anyone hold them to the fire and take a win away from 23XI? Stay tuned and see some exciting action this weekend at Darlington Raceway!
