Ms. V breaks down the AdventHealth 400 with NASCAR picks, predictions, and value angles for Sunday’s race at Kansas Speedway.
Race: AdventHealth 400
Date: Sunday, April 19th, 2026
Track: Kansas Speedway
Time: 2pm ET
Channel: FOX
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
In a race to remember, our mid-range pick, Ty Gibbs, drove his #54 Chevy to his first Cup Series victory Sunday afternoon at Bristol Motor Speedway! It was quite the eventful finish after Gibbs made the ultimate car to keep track position and forgo tires, a move neither Ryan Blaney nor Kyle Larson followed. Both drives got two tires in the next-to-last restart and easily cleared everyone up to Gibbs before Kyle Busch spun Riley Herbst for the final caution, causing an overtime finish. With a green, white, checkered remaining, Gibbs somehow held off both Blaney and Larson to earn his most memorable win to date, just 0.0553 seconds over Blaney. It was the closest margin of victory at Bristol since 1991. Blaney desperately wanted the win, but he couldn’t out drive Gibbs’ desire for his first victory.
Ultimately, Blaney had the superior car of the day despite Larson leading 284 laps and sweeping the first two stages. He acknowledged Blaney’s pit crew put him at a disadvantage multiple times, leaving the door open for Larson to capitalize. However, Blaney still managed to bring home the runner-up finish with Larson behind in a respectable third place. Tyler Reddick came home fourth, and Chase Briscoe rounded out the top five. Todd Gilliland, Joey Logano, Ryan Preece, Denny Hamlin, and Carson Hocevar were the remainder of your top ten.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
Bristol gave us some really great racing, but the drivers and teams are heading out and moving on to Kansas Speedway this weekend. This track is much different than the short tracks of the last two weekends. Kansas is a fairly typical intermediate speedway. It’s a 1.5-mile asphalt tri-oval with 17-20 degrees of banking through the turns, 10 degrees on the frontstretch, and 5 degrees on the backstretch. As with most intermediates, track position will be everything here. Passing is also very challenging, meaning qualifying and pit strategy will play a big factor. With drivers running the high line, tire fall-off can be rapid, but with stage racing, it’s not the ultimate factor here. If we get to some late race restarts, tires will be a consideration, much like we saw at Bristol.
Odds and Value Picks
Picking a winner at Kansas lends itself to those guys with fast speeds and the ability to ride the outside with confidence. There’s one driver that’s a standout when it comes to those factors. Here are your predicted winners heading into Kansas:
Winner: Kyle Larson (+550)
In his last four races here, Larson has two wins. In a total of 22 career starts, he boasts 3 wins, 9 top 5s, and 924 laps led. Larson is coming on strong and coming off a great weekend at Bristol. If his team can give him a good car, Larson will be hard to beat.
Mid-Range Pick: Chase Briscoe (+1000)
Briscoe has the tenth-best finish at Bristol in the 4 most recent starts. He’s one of those guys who needs a few races to warm up. We’re at the part of the season where he’s finding his feet and getting his confidence. His 5th-place finish at Bristol doesn’t hurt either.
Dark Horse: Carson Hocevar (+2200)
Hocevar is here to play, y’all. He had another top 10 finish at Bristol and is proving that he won’t sit down quietly. He doesn’t have the greatest results from Kansas in the past, but he’s defying his past at every track this year.
Hocevar also gained 2 spots in the points after his finish on Sunday and is confidently holding a place in the top of the standings. Let’s take a look at your current top 16 after Bristol:
- Tyler Reddick
- Ryan Blaney
- Denny Hamlin
- Ty Gibbs
- Chase Elliott
- Kyle Larson
- William Byron
- Bubba Wallace
- Christopher Bell
- Chris Buescher
- Brad Keselowski
- Joey Logano
- Carson Hocevar
- Ryan Preece
- Daniel Suarez
- Shane Van Gisbergen
Briscoe was actually the biggest mover, bumping up to the transfer spot, just one point behind SVG. I predict that he will rejoin the top 16 after the race this weekend at Kansas. This tends to be one of our best intermediate races, in my opinion. Stay tuned to see how the points play out after Sunday’s race at Kansas Speedway!
