Quick Recap:
• Record: 5-7-1
• Units: -4.2
• Best Win: Miami Marlins ML (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Under 7.5 (-2.5u)
Joe Jensen’s June 17 card finished at -4.2 units on a 5-7-1 graded record — a losing night driven less by volume and more by where the unit weight landed. The heavier-allocated plays (2u positions) went 3-5-1, and that imbalance was the story. The wins that did come through were clean and well-reasoned; the losses, unfortunately, carried the bigger price tags. Four of the five losses came from 2u or higher-risked positions, and that’s where the damage compounded.
Rockies at Cubs
Pick: Under 9.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -1.05u
The Cubs and Rockies had combined for just seven runs the day prior, and Jensen had cashed the Under 9 in that game. Coming back to the well here made sense on paper, but Chicago’s second inning erased the premise in a hurry. The Cubs erupted for seven runs in the second — a Dansby Swanson two-run homer was the centerpiece — and the game was effectively over as an under ticket before the third inning began. Pete Crow-Armstrong added a solo shot in the fourth, and Colorado’s rookie Sterlin Thompson homered twice in a losing effort. Final: Cubs 8, Rockies 6. Fourteen combined runs against a 9.5 total is a clean miss, though the explosive second inning was the kind of singular-inning blowup that’s hard to project.
Angels at Diamondbacks
Pick: Under 9 | Result: Push | Net: 0.00u
Jensen had backed the Angels ML the day before in this series, a winner. Coming back with an under in game two, the Diamondbacks won decisively — but the total landed right on the number at nine. Corbin Carroll’s grand slam in the second gave Arizona a 5-1 lead, and Eduardo Rodriguez was sharp through seven innings, allowing just one run. The Angels managed only Zach Neto’s solo homer for their lone run. Diamondbacks 8, Angels 1 — nine total, exactly. The 2.08u risk gets returned in full. Not a win, but not a loss either.
Orioles at Mariners
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.28u
This was the most painful loss on the card from a unit-exposure standpoint — 2.28u risked on a tight total that looked well-supported. Kyle Bradish was excellent, striking out a career-high 12 and allowing just one run through 7⅔ innings. The under was alive and well heading into the ninth, with Baltimore leading 4-1. Then Ryan Helsley entered and surrendered back-to-back home runs to Dominic Canzone and Cole Young on his first two pitches, pushing the total to eight. Orioles 5, Mariners 3. A bullpen implosion in the final frame turned a clean win into a loss. This one stings — the starting pitching held up its end of the bargain entirely.
Pirates at Athletics
Pick: Under 10.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -0.98u
Jensen had gone under in this same matchup the day before and lost. Coming back a second time with the same side, the Pirates made it a rout. Pittsburgh scored 12 runs on 16 hits — Ryan O’Hearn went 3-for-5 with a homer, a double, and a career-high six RBI. The Pirates scored in five of nine innings, including a five-spot in the seventh. Braxton Ashcraft was solid enough for Pittsburgh (six innings, two runs), but the offense was relentless. Pirates 12, Athletics 4. The under premise was never competitive here.
Rays at Dodgers
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.48u
The largest single loss on the card, and it came down to one swing. Shohei Ohtani was roughed up for four runs in the fifth inning — the Rays batted around and chased him — putting the Dodgers in a 4-2 hole. Freddie Freeman answered with a go-ahead two-run homer in the sixth off Kevin Kelly, and the final was Dodgers 5, Rays 4. Nine combined runs against a 7.5 total. The game was low-scoring through four innings, and the fifth-inning Rays explosion was the turning point. The Dodgers had won the prior game 1-0, and the under had looked reasonable given the pitching matchup. A competitive loss driven by a single bad inning from Ohtani.
Royals at Nationals
Pick: Over 10 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.16u
Jensen had backed the Nationals ML the day before — a winner — and pivoted to the over in game three. The Royals came out swinging with four solo home runs in the first three innings (Carter Jensen, John Rave, Lane Thomas, Michael Massey), but Washington’s pitching kept it contained. Luinder Avila took a shutout into the sixth, and the Nationals only managed two runs. Royals 6, Nationals 2 — eight combined runs against a total of 10. The early homer barrage looked promising for the over, but the offense stalled completely after the third inning. A missed read on the offensive environment.
Marlins at Phillies
Pick: Miami Marlins ML | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
One of the cleaner wins on the card. Jensen had taken the under in this series the day before and lost; pivoting to the Marlins ML in game three paid off in a big way. Kyle Stowers was the story — two home runs, an RBI double, a run-scoring single, and five RBI total in a 12-4 Miami blowout. The Marlins scored in the first, second, sixth, eighth, and ninth innings, never letting Philadelphia back into it after the early exchanges. Andrew Painter was knocked around early. A 2u win at even money (+100) that came through decisively.
Tigers at Astros
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Jensen had cashed this exact spot the day before — Under 8.5 in the same series — and came back with it again. Peter Lambert was outstanding, retiring nine of his first ten batters and finishing seven innings with just one run allowed. Jeremy Peña homered and added an RBI single for Houston, and the Astros won 4-2. Kerry Carpenter’s solo homer in the seventh was Detroit’s only extra-base damage. Six combined runs against an 8.5 total — a comfortable margin. The pitching-first read held up cleanly for the second straight game in this series.
Padres at Cardinals
Pick: Under 10.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
After cashing the Under 8.5 in this series the prior day, Jensen moved the number up to 10.5 and still found value. San Diego won 6-1, pounding out 14 hits but going 4-for-14 with runners in scoring position — keeping the total manageable. Fernando Tatis Jr. went 3-for-5 with two RBI, and Jackson Merrill added a two-run homer in the ninth to close out the scoring. The Cardinals managed just one run. Seven combined runs — a clean, comfortable under win.
Jays at Sox
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays ML | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Jensen had backed the Blue Jays ML the day before in this series and won; he came back with the same side in game three. Toronto won 3-0 despite losing scheduled starter Max Scherzer to back spasms before the game. Braydon Fisher and Simeon Woods Richardson combined to shut out Boston, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. drove in two runs. Andrés Giménez added a hit, an RBI, and three steals. A clean, low-drama win that validated the series read.
Sox at Yankees
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.30u
New York had crushed Chicago 12-2 the day before, and yet the under still looked playable given the pitching matchup. The Yankees did it again — Cody Bellinger homered and nearly hit for the cycle, Paul Goldschmidt went deep for the third time in four games, and New York put up a five-spot in the fifth inning. Colson Montgomery hit two home runs for Chicago with four RBI in a losing effort. Yankees 10, White Sox 5 — fifteen combined runs. The Yankees’ offense has been in a groove, and this was a case where the market may have underpriced their current form.
Giants at Braves
Pick: Under 9.5 | Result: Won | Net: +1.00u
Jensen had cashed the Under 9 in this series the day before — the Giants also won that game 7-2 — and came back with the same read at a slightly higher number. San Francisco won again, 7-2, with Willy Adames homering and Luis Arraez going 3-for-5. Atlanta’s Drake Baldwin hit a solo shot, but the Braves’ offense was quiet otherwise. Nine combined runs against a 9.5 total — a clean, repeatable under result in a series that played consistently low-scoring.
Guardians at Brewers
Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML | Result: Lost | Net: -1.96u
Jensen had cashed the Under 8.5 in this series the day before (Brewers 2, Guardians 1). Coming back with the Guardians ML in game two, Milwaukee came out swinging — Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio homered, and the Brewers scored seven runs in the first four innings. Cleveland’s Daniel Schneemann hit a grand slam in the fourth to make it 5-4 briefly, but Milwaukee answered with two more in the fourth and two in the eighth. Brewers 9, Guardians 4. The Guardians ML was a reasonable play given the prior game’s tight score, but Milwaukee’s early offensive burst made it a losing position quickly.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
Side plays went 1-0 on the day — these are lean recommendations with no units assigned and are tracked separately from the official graded card.
Mets at Reds
The lean was Over 9 (-110), and the Mets delivered a 9-1 win over Cincinnati. New York’s offense provided more than enough, though the final total of ten runs cleared the number by a single run. A clean hit on the side play.
Missed Reads: Pirates at Athletics (Under 10.5 — offense was never contained), Royals at Nationals (Over 10 — pitching dominated after early homers), White Sox at Yankees (Under 8.5 — Yankees’ current offensive form was underweighted)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Rockies at Cubs (Under 9.5 — one explosive inning decided it), Orioles at Mariners (Under 7.5 — bullpen implosion in the ninth), Rays at Dodgers (Under 7.5 — single bad inning from Ohtani flipped the total), Guardians at Brewers (Guardians ML — reasonable read, early Milwaukee surge closed it out)
Clean Wins: Marlins at Phillies (ML), Tigers at Astros (Under 8.5), Padres at Cardinals (Under 10.5), Jays at Sox (ML), Giants at Braves (Under 9.5)
The graded card produced five clean wins — all of which held their edge comfortably — but the losses were concentrated in higher-unit positions and, in two cases (Orioles-Mariners, Rays-Dodgers), came down to late-inning execution failures rather than flawed reads. The Yankees under was the clearest case of a team’s current offensive form not being fully accounted for. Strip out the Helsley ninth-inning meltdown in Seattle and this card looks meaningfully different. As it stands, -4.2 units on a 5-7-1 record is a losing day where the exposure alignment worked against the card.
