The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota Save Mart 350, where Shane Van Gisbergen, Chris Buescher, and Ryan Preece headline this week’s betting picks and value predictions.
Toyota Save Mart 350 Picks
Date: Sunday, June 28, 2026
Track: Sonoma Raceway
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Channel: TNT Sports
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Well, we learned that Coronado is a really cool place to race! What a show on the 3.4 mile road course, watching these guys launch their cars over the bumps, manage their tires, and just provide and overall awesome afternoon of racing. It probably wasn’t more exciting for anyone else than Corey Heim who captured his first ever NASCAR Cup Series win at the inaugural Anduril 250. He not only won, but he won by over 10 seconds. This was only Heim’s 13th start in the Cup Series, and he managed to pass his 23XI teammate, Tyler Reddick, with 2 laps to go in Turn 2. Reddick didn’t concede easily, though. He fought hard in turns 3 and 4 but ultimately gave the position to Heim and subsequently suffered a flat left front tire. That landed him with a dismal 25th place finish after a strong performance in the closing laps.
It was still an enormously solid day for the 23XI garage with Bubba Wallace coming home in 2nd. That produced the organization’s first ever 1-2 finish. Denny Hamlin had one of his more disappointing runs in a while, coming home in 14th when all was said and done. Regardless, he still made a huge gain in points on Reddick. Other guys weren’t so lucky. Most notably, predicted winner SVG was knocked out of contention after a restart on lap 32 taking Connor Zilisch and Austin Hill with him. SVG was clearly dominant and really showing his skill in that first half of the race. It was evident that he knew how to protect his position, maintain his tires, and even manipulate the other drivers into wearing themselves and their equipment out. It wasn’t meant to be this week unfortunately. For Corey Heim, the stars aligned and he was able to make moves when they mattered most. Despite a limited schedule this year, it’s clear he’s already earned the respect of his fellow drivers and teammates. It’ll be fun to watch him grow in the sport.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
After our Father’s Day road course, the drivers and teams are staying west coast bound and even still in Cali. It’s time for Sonoma! Since 1989, the NASCAR Cup Series has been coming to this track for the Toyota Save Mart 350. The road course is significantly shorter than what we saw this past weekend at Coronado. Sonoma boasts a 1.99-mile asphalt course with 12 total turns, the Carousel, and a part of the track known as the Esses. It’s a technically challenging course, with only specific places that drivers can utilize for passing. It’s another track where the leader can easily pull away and put several seconds on the rest of the field. As it is a road course, we will likely see many road course ringers show up this weekend to attempt to capture a win outside of the traditional oval courses. They will still be battling our best full time NASCAR drivers, though.
Odds and Value Picks
There are a handful of drivers as mentioned last week that really own the road courses and street courses and just have an overall knack for getting around these tracks. Current NASCAR betting odds are available at Bovada. Let’s take a look at all of your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race:
Winner: Shane Van Gisbergen (-250)
I said it last weekend, and I’ll say it again. There is no one better than SVG. Had he managed to stay out of the wreck involving Zilisch and Hill on Sunday, he could’ve easily driven to victory lane. His level of talent is unmatched on these courses, and he’s the defending winner of this race. He will be in victory lane this weekend.
Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher (+2800)
I’m telling you that this guy doesn’t get the credit he deserves. He quietly runs up front without causing a commotion but seemingly without effort finds himself running with the big dogs. He’s becoming a big dog. He’s #4 on the best average finish list in total career starts, 40 laps led, and 3 top 5 finishes in 9 races. Don’t count him out.
Dark Horse: Ryan Preece (+8000)
After an 11th place finish at Coronado, Preece is looking good on the road courses. He doesn’t have much experience at Sonoma, with only 5 total career starts, but he has an average 18.6 finish and a lot of runway in front of him. He is coming along and building his confidence. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in contention at the end of this thing.
Points Picture Heading Into Sonoma
The points gaps are closing thanks to these road courses. It’s definitely a different kind of battle this year with the “reformatting” of the championship playoffs. The stages matter. The laps led matter. It all matters. Let’s take a peek at your current top 16 drivers after the inaugural race at Coronado:
1. Tyler Reddick
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Ryan Blaney
4. Kyle Larson
5. Ty Gibbs
6. Chase Elliott
7. Chris Buescher
8. Daniel Suarez
9. Carson Hocevar
10. Chase Briscoe
11. Bubba Wallace
12. Christopher Bell
13. William Byron
14. Erik Jones
15. Austin Cindric
16. Ryan Preece
Preece had an exceptional weekend, running up front for a good portion of the day on Sunday. He jumped 3 spots, taking away the coveted 16th position from SVG who lost just as many. Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, and Kyle Larson all jumped 2 positions with Bell and Byron losing 2 themselves. Sonoma will likely give us another shift in the points. Reddick is only 8 points ahead of Hamlin as we head into Sunday’s race. It just goes to show how you can’t ever let your guard down. As they say, it ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings! Stay tuned for another exciting afternoon of racing as we head into Sonoma this weekend!
