The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400, where Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher, and Zane Smith headline this week’s betting picks and value predictions.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks
Date: Sunday, June 7, 2026
Track: Michigan International Speedway
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Channel: Prime
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
It was an emotional win at Nashville in a wild finish for Denny Hamlin, ultimately honoring the late Kyle Busch in victory lane. For Hamlin, it was a crazy victory being that he drove from literally the back of the field to the front of the field after starting on the pole to begin with. He was penalized for jumping the start, but he did just fine climbing his way back to the top. He led a race high 57 laps, but there were a total of 15 leaders throughout the night leading to a record 31 lead changes. It was a night of strategy, really trying to figure out what was going to work best. Daniel Suarez’s team gave a strong effort after winning stage 2 by staying out during a late caution.
AJ Allmendinger was the winner of stage 1, but he ultimately succumbed to what appears to be a failed brake rotor. Unfortunately, he was not the only one with brake equipment failure that night. Connor Zilisch and Ross Chastain also suffered brake issues leading to additional cautions. Overall, there was some great racing there at the end, with Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Chase Briscoe fighting hard to get to the checkered flag first. For Bell, it was a disappointing 2nd place finish after his other most recent 2nd place finish last weekend. He is working hard on capitalizing to get the win, but it was Denny’s night at Nashville. Chase Briscoe, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Shane Van Gisbergen rounded out the top 5 spots. They were followed by Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Zane Smith, and Carson Hocevar.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams are heading to Michigan for a 400-mile race at the 2-mile D-shaped oval. This track boasts 18 degrees of banking in the turns, 12 degrees on the frontstretch, and 5 degrees on the backstretch. It’s a track with a lot of speed and little brake usage, which will apparently be a good thing for many drivers. This is a heavy aero track. It can be a tough balance between getting the car to the speeds needed while also avoiding loose conditions and losing grip in the corners. Because of the aero components, passing is often very challenging at Michigan, so track position is critical. That being said, Michigan often comes down to fuel, which can be tricky in the late laps of this race. Tire wear can be a challenge because scrubbing tires through the turns can cause some unwanted wear.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes down to picking a winner at Michigan, there are 2 guys with 3 wins each, but I’m not convinced that they’re our guys this weekend. Kyle Larson has struggled to stay out of trouble and Joey Logano is just not running top tier right now. As terrible as it is to say, it’s going to be hard to beat Denny this weekend. Current NASCAR betting odds are available at Bovada. Let’s take a look at your list of potential winners heading into Sunday’s race:
Winner: Denny Hamlin (+350)
As the 2025 defending winner and also coming off a win at Nashville, Denny is just killing it right now. He only has 2 wins to Tyler Reddick’s 5 this season, but don’t let that fool you. He’s got 756 laps led over 362 from Reddick. He has closed the gap to 97 points now between him and first place, so he’s on a mission. Hamlin is going to be chasing that checkered flag without a doubt once again.
Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher (+1800)
Buescher didn’t have the best race at Nashville, but he’s been consistent this year across the board. At MIS in particular, Buescher is in his element. He has a win from 2023 followed by a 4th place and 2nd place showing over the last 2 years. Buescher is looking for a strong run, and this is going to be one of those tracks where he can really show up. Look for him to have a top run in 2026 this weekend.
Dark Horse: Zane Smith (+8000)
Smith is really coming into his own. He came home with a top 10 finish at Nashville and has a great record in his last couple of races here at Michigan. He’s sitting as the 5th best average finisher in those 2 starts with an average of 7th place. Smith is looking for another solid finish, and this is just the place for him to get it.
Points Picture Heading Into Michigan
Smith has a long runway in front of him and opportunity to improve in the points, currently sitting in 20th, but he managed to climb a spot to 20th after Nashville. We did have a little bit of movement among the top 16 after the race on Sunday night. Let’s look at where everyone landed after Nashville:
1. Tyler Reddick
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Ryan Blaney
4. Chase Elliott
5. Ty Gibbs
6. Kyle Larson
7. Christopher Bell
8. Chris Buescher
9. Carson Hocevar
10. Daniel Suarez
11. William Byron
12. Shane Van Gisbergen
13. Brad Keselowski
14. Chase Briscoe
15. Bubba Wallace
16. Austin Cindric
Cindric moved into the top 16 while Ryan Preece fell out. Bubba Wallace also saw some struggles, falling 2 spots to 15th place. SVG swapped 2 spots with Keselowski, moving him up the leaderboard and showing us that there’s hope for him outside of the road courses! It’s good to see SVG getting good at the typical ovals. He’s had some struggles across the board on styles outside of his norm, but it seems like he’s finally turning the tide on NASCAR’s premier style. Will he be as successful on the big 2-mile oval this weekend? You have to wait and see! Stay tuned for a great afternoon of racing as the teams and drivers battle at MIS this Sunday!
