RBD takes the Over on North Texas at Indiana in Week 1 of the 2026 college football season, backed by a 68% trend on Week 1 big-favorite totals and two top-scoring offenses squaring off.
North Texas Mean Green at Indiana Hoosiers
A Week 1 College Football Total Pick
Indiana qualifies for the system I detailed in my last article (no, I’m not giving the stats, data, and records again this week – look it up yourself, ya lazy jamokes.)
Rather than go with the side though I’m using the total on this one.
As promised in my last article, here’s an update on the Ov/Un record for these Week One Big Fav blowout games.
The Over in this spot (Week 1 Favs of 37 or higher) was 17-9, 65% since 2020.
Three games qualified last year.
The Ov/Un record was 2-0-1.
That puts the full record since I’ve been charting it at 19-9, 68%.
In this game, the books hung a 54′.
Let’s look at the matchup.
Indiana has that whole “Belichick or Brady” thing going on. Remember when Bill and Tom went their separate ways and people debated who was mostly responsible for their championships? It’s not a debate anymore because Brady went on to win another Super Bowl while Belichick’s teams have floundered, both pro and college (but he is dating a former cheerleader who’s 48 years younger than he is – ya gotta give him props for that.)
For Indiana, the question coming into this season is this – was their dominance last season (a perfect 17-0) due to head coach Curt Cignetti or quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
Or was it a combination of the two?
The answer will become a little bit clearer as Signetti goes on to his first season without Mendoza, who’s now in the NFL playing for the Raiders.
Let’s look at Indiana as BIG Favs last season.
They were -36 against Kennesaw State and won 56-9.
They were -44′ against FCS Western Illinois and won 77-3.
Both games easily covered the large spread.
So why not lay the number this season?
Because neither of those teams can score like North Texas can.
Both games also easily went Over, and that’s where I’m looking for an edge in this one.
Eric Morris left North Texas to coach at Oklahoma State. I have no data to use for the Mean Green under Brown, so let’s compare this game’s number to their scores from last season.
North Texas Ov/Un was 12-2 at 54 or higher.
Ya gotta love that number if you’re looking for at the Over.
Indiana was just 7-10 Ov/Un using 54′, but the majority of those ten Unders came against the very tough Big Ten.
North Texas is not a Big Ten caliber defense.
When looking to see where both teams ranked on PPG scored last season you don’t have to look very far down the list.
N. Texas was ranked number one at 44.5 PPG.
Indiana was ranked number three at 39.5.
Combine that’s an average of 42 PPG.
More fuel for a bet on the Over.
The defensive PPG numbers show Indiana ranked 3rd at just 12.5.
Not a good look for the Over.
But none of the teams they faced had the offensive fire power of the Mean Green from North Texas.
And Indiana’s prowess on defense is offset by North Texas’ porous defense, ranked 84th, giving up almost 30 per game.
This might be one of the worst opening day totals I’ve ever seen. Both of these teams are capable of putting up 30 or higher all by themselves.
The test will be the top scoring offense of North Texas versus the top rated defense of Indiana.
If I can get 20 or more from North Texas – and I believe I can – then the high flying Indiana offense should easily be able to get me the rest of the points I need against the Mean Green not-so-mean defense.
TCU transfer Josh Hoover steps into the vacancy left by Mendoza. Hoover is a top-ranked quarterback who threw for 3,472 yards and 29 touchdowns with 13 interceptions last season. Yes, the INT number is a little high but that’s okay – if he has opening day jitters and throws a few more in this game it can help North Texas put more points on the board.
I’m buying this one now because I expect it will be higher by kickoff. And I’m looking forward to watching it more than any other opening week matchup.
My play:
N Tex/Ind Ov 54′
