Mike Mann breaks down the 2026 Mountain West season with total wins picks, leans, and trends for all 10 teams heading into the college football opener.
Mountain West Total Wins Preview
The college football season is now just weeks away from starting and the time is now to start grabbing some preseason bargains on total wins. Below you will find a breakdown of each of the Mountain West teams along with some picks, leans and trends.
New Mexico
Over/Under: 7.5 wins
Other than a road trip to play Oklahoma in week three, the Lobos should be favored in every other game on their schedule. They get their three toughest conference opponents at home (UNLV, Air Force and North Dakota State) where they are currently riding a seven-game winning streak, and overall should find themselves in a great position to capture their first ever Mountain West conference championship.
PICK: Over 7.5 wins
PICK: Mountain West Conference Champions (+200)
TREND: The Lobos were 3-3 on the road last season, which doesn’t sound like much but it was their first time since 2007 that they didn’t end the year with a losing record in away games.
UNLV
Over/Under: 7.5 wins
The Rebels get their two toughest non-conference games at home (Memphis and California), but they face near opposite circumstances within the Mountain West, drawing the other four top teams and having to travel to play three of them (New Mexico, Air Force, Hawaii). Even with that challenge, I don’t believe that UNLV will find themselves drastically overmatched in any game and should be able to add to their recent run of success that has seen them go 30-12 over their last three seasons.
PICK: Over 7.5 wins
TREND: The Rebels are second in odds to win the Mountain West at +250. They have just one conference championship in their football history, and it was over 40 years ago in a conference (Big West) that hasn’t existed in the sport since the turn of the century.
Air Force
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
Having gone 4-10 in their last 14 road games, the Falcons are definitely beneficial of being the only MWC team that has just five away games this season compared to their usual six. They also have six games against teams whose preseason ranking is 100 or worse along with FCS Duquesne, which all combined should be enough to see them at least reach the seven-win mark to clear their over.
LEAN: Over 6.5 wins
TREND: The Falcons are just 1-5 combined against Army and Navy over the last three years and have taken home the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy just once in the past decade.
Hawaii
Over/Under: 7.5 wins
The Rainbows conference schedule benefits from getting their toughest matchups at home (New Mexico, UNLV, North Dakota State) while also avoiding Air Force. They do face some challenges outside of the Mountain West with trips to play Stanford and Arizona State though and to clear their over will need to finally find some consistent success away from home, as they have not had a winning road record since 2007.
LEAN: Under 7.5 wins
TREND: The Rainbows supposed home field travel advantage has only amounted to a 50-40 record in their last 90 matchups in Honolulu.
North Dakota State
Over/Under: 9.5 wins
The Bisons jump to the FBS level after a dominant FCS run that includes 10 titles in the last 15 years. Unfortunately for Dakota fans a tough initial schedule awaits them, most notably road trips to the four teams listed above them in these rankings, and I believe that will be too much for them to overcome in attempting to clear the lofty total set by oddsmakers.
PICK: Under 9.5 wins
TREND: North Dakota State is 73-4 straight up in their last 77 games at home and have covered all three times they have been home underdog since 2020, which shouldn’t matter this year as they are lined up to be favored in all six matchups in Fargo.
Nevada
Over/Under: 4.5 wins
A majority of the best chances for Wolfpack conference wins are on the road (MTSU, UTEP, Northern Illinois) and their non-MW games include a road trip to take on UCLA along with two dangerous matchups to begin their season against Western Kentucky and Montana State. The Hilltoppers are currently a 2.5-point favorite against Nevada and Montana State is coming off an FCS championship and ranked at the top of the division to begin 2026.
PICK: Under 4.5 wins
TREND: Seven of Nevada’s last nine wins have come as either an underdog or in an even spread game.
Wyoming
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
The Cowboys are 15-2 in their last 17 games as a favorite, but unfortunately this season they are only looking at around three times they will be giving points all season, and that may be a stretch as two of those matchups are on the road where they are on a current 4-14 run. Expecting them to get to a .500 record and increasing on last year’s mark with an additional two victories might be asking too much.
PICK: Under 5.5 wins
TREND: Wyoming is 13-5 against the spread in their last 18 games as a home underdog. This year that record will be tested against three of the best of the Mountain West in New Mexico, Air Force and Hawaii.
San Jose State
Over/Under: 4.5 wins
Home matchups against Northern Illinois and FCS Cal Poly are the only definitive chances that the Spartans have of being favored this season, which isn’t a good setup for a team that has lost 15 in a row when underdogs by more than three points and is 1-9 straight up in their last ten road games.
LEAN: Under 4.5 wins
TREND: The Spartans are also 0-6 against the spread in their last six games as a home underdog and have covered just three times in fifteen games against MWC opponents over the past two seasons.
UTEP
Over/Under: 3.5 wins
Non-conference games Oklahoma, Michigan and Oregon State put UTEP behind the ball before even starting a Mountain West slate that has them going on the road for their best chance at a victory (Northern Illinois). This is especially not ideal for Miners team that is 2-12 in their last 14 away games while also averaging just one road win per year over the past decade.
LEAN: Under 3.5 wins
TREND: UTEP hasn’t been that much better at home of late either, winning just four of their last seventeen games in El Paso.
Northern Illinois
Over/Under: 3.5 wins
Navigating a schedule that contains seven road games, including Iowa & Arizona, would be a difficult task for anyone, let alone one as bad as the Huskies. Their first and last home matchups (against Illinois State and UTEP) are the only chances they have of being favored all season. Looks like they will be finishing ranked last amongst the FBS Huskies against Washington and UConn.
PICK: Under 3.5 wins
TREND: Since upsetting Notre Dame in 2024, the Huskies have just one win as an underdog and are currently riding an eight-game losing streak when getting points.
