Mike Mann breaks down the 2026 American Conference season with total wins picks, leans, and trends for all 14 teams heading into the college football opener.
American Conference Total Wins Preview
The college football season is now just weeks away from starting and the time is now to start grabbing some preseason bargains on total wins. Below you will find a breakdown of each of the AAC teams along with some picks, leans and trends.
Navy
Over/Under: 7.5 wins
The Midshipmen’s schedule has the benefit of having just five road games but on the flip side it also has just five true home games due to their neutral matchups against Notre Dame and Army, which are also the most difficult matchups on their schedule as they get both teams off of their bye week. Road trips to take on UTSA and rival Air Force won’t be easy, but they do avoid both Tulane and ECU in conference and short of the matchup in Massachusetts against the Irish, Navy should find themselves favored in every other week of the season.
PICK: Over 7.5 wins
LEAN: American Conference Champion (+350)
TREND: Navy is 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games as a home favorite and 9-4 versus the number in their last 13 games as a road favorite.
UTSA
Over/Under: 7.5 wins
The Roadrunners don’t leave the state of Texas for the first month of the season, with non-conference home matchups against Rio Grande and Colorado State bookending road trips against Texas State and the Longhorns in Austin. Getting out of September with a 3-1 record would be an ideal launching point into their AAC schedule, where this season UTSA don’t have to deal with Army, ECU and Memphis while also getting Navy at home in the Alamodome where UTSA has gone 31-4 in their last 35 games.
LEAN: Over 7.5 wins
TREND: The Roadrunners have covered eight straight games as a home underdog with seven outright wins.
Tulane
Over/Under: 7.5 wins
Non-conference road matchups against Duke and Kansas State will test the Green Wave early in the season before they begin AAC play. The Green Wave has done well of late against the American Conference, putting up a 31-5 record over the last four years, and at least should benefit from avoiding Navy and ECU and drawing UTSA and Memphis at home at Yulman Stadium where Tulane has won 22 of their last 27 games. Acclimating to their third head coach in four seasons could end up being the most difficult hurdle to clear.
LEAN: Under 7.5 wins
TREND: Tulane is 9-3 in their last twelve games as a home underdog.
Army
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
To clear their win total the Black Knights will need to continue their recent road success, where they have gone 8-2 over the last two seasons both straight up and against the spread, and this year could find themselves favored in all five travel matchups (Temple, La. Tech, Tulsa, Memphis and Rice). Challenges definitely await them, most notably their Commander-in-Chief matchups against Navy and Air Force and missing out on AAC lightweights Charlotte, UAB and North Texas, but they do draw their other most difficult conference games at home against Tulane and ECU, which all combined should be enough for Army to finish their regular season with a record over .500.
LEAN: Over 6.5 wins
TREND: Army is 48-13 over the last decade at home. Last season was the only time in ten years they finished with a losing record (2-3) at West Point, which included two losses as double-digit favorites in games against Tarleton State and Tulsa.
East Carolina
Over/Under: 7.5 wins
Opening a season overmatched on the road in Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama isn’t necessary the most ideal start for the Pirates, but at least they get their most difficult game out of the way early. And other than a road trip to Army later in the year, could be the only other time all season the Pirates find themselves underdogs in a game thanks in large part to an AAC schedule that avoids all three teams at the top of the preseason rankings (Navy, UTSA and Tulane).
LEAN: Over 7.5 wins
TREND: ECU is 17-7-1 against the spread in their last 25 games as a road underdog but 11-19 ATS in their last 30 games getting points at home.
Memphis
Over/Under: 7.5 wins
Keeping with the AAC theme of tough non-conference road trips to begin the season, Memphis has games at New Mexico and Boise State, both of whom are favored to win their respective divisions. It doesn’t get much easier from there, as the Tigers are lined up to play nearly all the best teams in conference, including away games against Navy and Tulane and tough home matchups against Army and ECU. Memphis should still end up bowl bound, but I believe with all the difficulties awaiting them on the schedule it will be too much to clear their win total.
PICK: Under 7.5 wins
TREND: The Tigers are 11-2 against the spread in their last thirteen games as a home underdog but just 5-10-1 versus the number getting points on the road.
South Florida
Over/Under: 8.5 wins
USF has gone just 14-16 in their last 30 non-conference games but this season should find much greater success with four cupcakes as part of their 2026 schedule (FIU, Delaware State, Bowling Green and Kent State). Where they get the remaining five wins from the AAC is where things get difficult for the Bulls, with road games against Army and UTSA in the first half of the season and ending with a November slate that includes East Carolina, Memphis and a finale versus Tulane.
PICK: Under 8.5 wins
TREND: Four of South Florida’s last five losses were in games in which they were favored to win.
Florida Atlantic
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
FAU is set up to go 3-1 against non-conference opponents (lose to Florida, wins against FIU, ULM and Texas Southern) but things get a lot tougher within the AAC thanks to games against a majority of top teams in Navy, Army, UTSA and ECU. If the Owls could find a way to play with more consistency at home, where they have won just five of their last fifteen games and gone 5-13 against the spread their last eighteen when getting points.
LEAN: Over 5.5 wins
TREND: FAU is 7-27 straight up in their last 34 away games and hasn’t been favored on the road since 2023.
Temple
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
The best chances at wins come at home for the Owls in 2026 with games against URI, UConn, Charlotte, UAB and Rice at Lincoln Financial Field and they also avoid both UTSA and Tulane within the AAC. This is especially helpful for a Temple team that has gone just 4-25 on the road over the past five years, with a 4-0 straight up record when favored and an 0-25 mark when underdogs. Until they can win consistently when not expected, it’s hard to back a team that has finished a season with a record over .500 since 2019.
LEAN: Under 5.5 wins
TREND: In the past decade the Owls are 17-10 against the spread as a home favorite and 10-4-1 versus the number giving points on the road.
Tulsa
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
There are five games on the schedule I don’t think Tulsa has a chance of winning; non-conference matchups against Oklahoma State and Arkansas along with road trips against the three best teams in the AAC (Navy, UTSA, Tulane). That means they would need to go 6-1 in their remaining games to clear their win total, which is possible to have faith in them accomplishing considering they are 2-6 in their last eight home games, 2-14 in their last 16 conference games and have lost their last five games in a row when favored against FBS opponents.
PICK: Under 5.5 wins
TREND: Eight of Tulsa’s last twelve wins have come as an underdog.
North Texas
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
Coming off of a year in which they were favored in all 15 games they played in, the Mean Green are set up for an adjustment year. They start their season with three difficult non-conference games versus UNLV, Indiana and Texas State and within the AAC have to travel to take on Navy, UTSA and Tulane. UNT has done well recently when expected to succeed, having won their last 18 games in a row when favored by three or more, and are at least set up with home games against Charlotte, Rice, UAB and FAU. But when considering their schedule, it’s easy to understand why their expected win total is half of what they achieved a season ago.
LEAN: Under 5.5 wins
TREND: The Mean Green are 1-7 in their last eight neutral field matchups, which makes sense considering their overall record in bowl games is just 3-12.
UAB
Over/Under: 3.5 wins
The Blazers have three possible games in which they will be favored all season; Louisiana Monroe, Samford and Charlotte. From there, they at least avoid Tulane and Army with the AAC, but how much difference they’ll be from the last three seasons where they had 11 wins combined remains to be seen.
LEAN: Under 3.5 wins
TREND: Since restarting their football program in 2017, UAB is 39-12 at home overall but that record has taken a hit of late with the Blazers going just 6-6 straight over the last two seasons with a 4-8 mark against the spread. They are also in the midst of a 1-17 run on the road.
Rice
Over/Under: 3.5 wins
The Owls are lined up to be underdogs in every game of the season except for their season opener against Houston Christian. Within conference they miss out on fellow conference cellar dwellers UAB and Charlotte while also having to travel to play North Texas and Temple in the midst of a 6-22 road slide in their last 28 away games. I like the under a lot.
PICK: Under 3.5 wins
TREND: Rice has gone 6-16-1 against the spread as a home favorite over the last ten seasons. They went 17-7-1 ATS in the decade prior in the same situation.
Charlotte
Over/Under: 3.5 wins
Similar to Rice, the 49ers are lined up to only be favored in their lone game against FCS competition, which is also how they got their lone victory a season ago. Their most winnable conference games are on the road (North Texas, Temple, UAB, Tulsa) where they are just 11-40 over their last 51 games, and considering all of that going against Charlotte is one of my favorite under picks of the year.
PICK: Under 3.5 wins
TREND: In the past three seasons the 49ers are 12-3-1 against the spread as a road dog and 2-13 as a home dog.
