The NASCAR Cup Series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Dollar Tree 301, where Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, and Josh Berry headline this week’s betting picks and value predictions.
Dollar Tree 301 Picks
Date: Sunday, August 23, 2026
Track: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Joey Logano ended any doubt that he was and is still a championship contender, leading 95 of the 400 laps on the night at Richmond and coming home with the checkered flag. Logano always seems to come in clutch, moving from a dismal 20th in the standings to now 9th after his win at Richmond. Although he hasn’t clinched a spot quite yet based solely on points, his 2 recent wins have him sitting well into playoff contention. Some are calling it his slowest start to the season, but Logano somehow manages to make it count when it matters most.
Saturday night was very much a strategy race like the race the week before in Iowa. There were some clear dominators, though, as the lights came on the track. Chase Briscoe led a race-best 171 laps, but he failed to deliver, coming in 2nd to Logano after claiming brake issues led to him not being able to level up to Logano in the late laps of the race. For Briscoe, however, it was still a major improvement at a track that he has notoriously struggled at in the past. The runner-up finish also locked him into the playoff field. Austin Cindric, Denny Hamlin, and Chase Elliott rounded out the top 5 in the field. Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Josh Berry, William Byron, and Alex Bowman were the remainder of the top 10.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
We only have 2 races remaining for these drivers to get their acts together and lock in their place in the playoffs. This weekend, the drivers and teams are heading to New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This track is a 1.058-mile asphalt oval with 2 to 7 degrees of progressive banking in the turns and a very minimal 1 degree on the straights. “The Magic Mile” can be challenging for drivers because of the limited banking, especially in the turns. This leads to hard braking and an inability to really get that forward bite on the cars leading into and out of the corners. The excessive braking can be a problem for drivers that don’t manage their equipment well. Chase Briscoe may have to do some work on that car before this weekend!
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner at New Hampshire, we often see a lot of the past two weekends mirrored. Both Richmond and Iowa boast some similar features, but there are still some notable differences that make it a unique track. Current NASCAR betting odds are available at Bovada. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race:
Winner: Christopher Bell (+500)
Bell is undoubtedly the best at this place across all series. He has 7 victories in 12 starts, including multiple Cup wins. Bell is someone that will not be ignored this weekend and has a great shot at really being class of the field if they can come with a strong setup.
Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski (+5000)
Bad Brad heads into New Hampshire as someone well versed in the short flat tracks, matching Denny Hamlin with the best average finish of 9.6 at this particular track. Keselowski has 2 Cup wins here, and he is looking to gain some traction with only 2 races remaining in the regular season.
Dark Horse: Josh Berry (+1200)
It’s hard to ignore Berry, who has come away with some of his best finishes this season in the last 2 weekends. Being that we are heading to another similar track, Berry is only going to continue to grow that confidence. With only 2 starts here, he has an average finish of 2.5. It really doesn’t get too much better than that.
Points Picture Heading Into New Hampshire
Berry and many others may not have a chance at the championship this year, but that doesn’t preclude them from wanting a win and to be better each and every weekend. Let’s see where the top 16 are sitting with just New Hampshire and Daytona on the docket closing out the regular season:
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Ty Gibbs
4. Tyler Reddick
5. Chase Briscoe
6. Chase Elliott
7. Christopher Bell
8. Kyle Larson
9. Joey Logano
10. Chris Buescher
11. Carson Hocevar
12. William Byron
13. Daniel Suarez
14. Bubba Wallace
15. Austin Cindric
16. Shane van Gisbergen
There wasn’t any movement in or out of the top 16 this weekend, but your top 7 are clinched into the playoffs at this point. The rest of them still have some work to do to earn their way in. Logano jumped 4 spots, while Carson Hocevar lost 3. Ryan Preece is sitting in 17th, currently 50 points behind SVG. That’s a big gap to make up, but never say never. Will we see any big moves after New Hampshire? Stay tuned to see another great afternoon of short track racing!
