Ball State at Ohio State
College Football Prediction
Updated records for my NP handicapping model coming into this season:
NP Under
2020: 28-4, 87%
2021: 34-21, 63%
2022: 34-32, 51%
2023: 21-17, 55%
2024: 23-13, 64%
2025: 11-5, 68%
(Combined total: 151-92, 62%; corrected from my previous article)
NP Over
2020: 33-29
2021: 25-28
2022: 37-36
2023: 34-31
2024: 11-8
2025: 6-12, 67%
(Combined 146-144. Usually comes out around .500, no value to play ON or Fade AGAINST, but was a 67% Fade last year so maybe I’ll get some plays out of it this season)
Monday, September 1:
I’ve just finished my morning handicapping and I have FIVE games that qualify for my NP spots.
Three Overs:
Tulane/Duke, Fla Int/S Fla, Ark St/Mem
Two Unders:
Ball St/Ohio St, N. I’ll/Iowa.
Five spots to choose from – Yay!
Wednesday, September 3:
I’ve just finished my morning handicapping.
I checked my plays against the current lines and ALL FIVE NP spots no longer qualify.
Boo!
I don’t force plays.
If a game fits the parameters to qualify it’s a play.
If it misses, even by just a half point, it’s not a play.
Some of the five games barely qualified on Monday so when the lines started to move I wasn’t surprised that the five spots no longer qualified when I did my midweek check.
I was disappointed to lose two possible plays on the Under but I had a thought – I keep an extensive database, why not go back to last year’s charts and check the games that qualified early in the week but were later eliminated due to line moves.
What was the Ov/Un record?
That’s tomorrow’s handicapping homework.
Thursday, September 4:
Homework complete.
Here’s what I found when looking at NP unders that were eliminated last season.
Week 1:
Three games qualified for NP Unders on Monday.
By Saturday two were eliminated due to line moves.
One game went Over, one stayed Under.
Week 5:
Two NP Unders qualified on Monday.
Both were eliminated.
Both went Over.
Week 8:
Five qualified, one was eliminated.
It went Over.
Week 9:
Three qualified, one was eliminated.
It went Over.
Week 12:
One qualified. It was eliminated.
It went Over.
Well what do you know. Seven games were eliminated due to the line moves and SIX of them went Over.
6-1, 85%.
THAT’S what handicapping is.
Keeping an open mind.
Thinking outside the box.
Looking at the chess board, checking every angle, and looking for winning edges.
And sometimes, you find a profitable one.
This week I have two NP Under spots that were eliminated, Ball St/Ohio St, N. I’ll/Iowa.
I have a 12:30 EST kickoff and a 4:15 kickoff.
This gives me the enviable option of playing the early spot and seeing the results before making a decision to play the later game or not.
I like this scenario because I also have an added edge on the morning spot. I’m actually kind of happy that Ohio State was eliminated.
Why would I be happy about losing a play that hit for 68% last season and 62% the last six seasons?
Because as noted in my article on Texas A&M earlier this week, teams who are playing their first game of the season and are favored by 37 or more (vs. FBS opponents only, FCS opponents not included) are 6-1 to the Over the last three seasons.
Including the USC game from last week it’s now 7-1.
Ohio State is favored by 50 points on Saturday.
On Monday I had conflicting plays on Ball St/ Ohio St., the NP Under spot vs. the team favored by 37 or more Over spot.
Now, no such conflict exists. Two strong records point me to the Over, the 7-1 on Favs of 37 or higher, and the 6-1 record on NP Unders that were eliminated.
And then there’s my “gut feel.”
While I was happy on Monday to get a game that qualified for the NP Under, I didn’t like the Ohio State spot. The total opened at 57/56′ and is currently 56′ at most shops, but every one of them have higher juice on the Under, and some have already moved to 56.
My gut feel tells me that Ohio St is capable of scoring 56 all by themselves (and with Ball State facing last year’s number one defense for PPG, Ohio State’s probably going to have to score all 57 by themselves!)
In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they had the number almost covered by halftime.
Do the Buckeyes score BIG when they’re favored by a BIG number?
Is coach Ryan Day shy about running up the score?
Last season Ohio State was a Fav of 30 or more points twice.
November 15th, they were favored over UCLA by 33 with a total of 46.
They won 48-10.
They covered the Over all by themselves.
The game went Over by double digits.
December 6th, they were favored by 54 points over Grambling with a total of 62.
They won 70-0.
Again, they covered the Over all by themselves.
Want more?
Two seasons ago Ohio state was favored by 30 or more in four games.
And four of the five went Over.
I would not want to be a Ball State Cardinal this week.
My play:
Ball St/Ohio St Ov
When to Buy Recommendation
Wait to buy this one. Some houses have already dropped from 56′ to 56, and my expectation is there’s a higher chance it will continue to drop rather than go higher. Keep an eye on it, if it starts to go up, worst case you grab the 56. Check my usual Saturday morning Forum post for updates.)
Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-0
Review:
Banked a winner with my first pick of the season, using my WF1 model. It said North Carolina State should be the Fav against Virginia. Last season, the WF1 record was 25-41, all games.
Broken down into the subcategory of Hm/Rd it was:
Hm 8-13, 62%
Rd 17-28, 62%
It’s a new season, no data accumulated yet, so I leaned on last year’s numbers and Faded the Rd 62% spot. And Virginia rewarded me with a 32-8 victory, easily covering the -4 point spread by 20 points!
