Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
NL Wild Card Series Game 1
Tuesday, September 29, 2026
10:00 PM ET, Petco Park
The Padres are home favorites at -125 in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Cubs at Petco Park. Chicago sits at +108 on the moneyline. My play is the Under 7.
The pitching setup for both teams is the entry point here. Michael King takes the mound for San Diego. He was 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA in 185 innings this season — one of the most reliable starters in the National League. He posts 6+ innings consistently, generates weak contact, and has a specific track record of shutting down high-powered offenses. Against a Cubs lineup that finished with 850 runs, King represents the specific type of arm that can suppress the run production the Cubs are used to producing.
The Cubs’ Game 1 starter is uncertain. Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga are the leading candidates. Both are decent starters, but neither is at King’s level. Boyd is 10-5 with a 3.91 ERA. Imanaga is 11-10 with a 3.74 ERA. Whichever pitcher gets the ball, the Cubs will likely have a shorter leash than a normal starter — meaning the Padres will see multiple relievers on Tuesday night, which limits offensive continuity for Chicago.
The Padres bullpen is the specific advantage that separates this game. San Diego finished with the No. 1 bullpen ERA in the National League at 3.06. Mason Miller is one of the most dominant closers in the sport. Adrian Morejon is a lockdown setup man. Yuki Matsui and Bradgley Rodriguez cover the middle innings with high-strikeout stuff. Even Jason Adam is back from his shoulder strain and available for late-inning matchups. When one team has a bullpen advantage of this magnitude, run scoring gets throttled in the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th innings — the exact time when weaker bullpens typically allow late rallies.
Petco Park is one of the specific reasons to lean Under. The stadium’s spacious alleys and marine layer at night have historically suppressed offense. Home runs that would leave other parks stay in play at Petco. Fly balls become outs. That environmental factor typically shaves 1-2 runs off total production, which is a meaningful edge when the total sits at 7.
Both offenses are legitimately good, but their profiles work against big totals in this specific game. The Cubs’ offense finished with 850 runs — that’s impressive — but it was built on power hitting that doesn’t play as well at Petco. Alex Bregman is on fire (.913 OPS in September), but his slash-oriented approach can be blunted by King’s efficient strike-throwing.
The Padres offense has Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill — legitimate threats. But Tatis has been streaky, and Machado has been solid but not dominant. Against a Cubs bullpen that has real talent (Peterson posted a 1.27 ERA in his last 4, Imanaga has a 1.96 ERA with 1 HR allowed in 23 recent innings), the Padres won’t blow up for 5-6 runs of their own.
Realistic outcomes: Padres 4, Cubs 2 (6 total); Padres 3, Cubs 2 (5 total); Cubs 3, Padres 2 (5 total); or Padres 5, Cubs 3 (8 total, over). Three of four scenarios stay under 7. Only if bullpens completely melt down or the Cubs have an offensive breakout does the total push comfortably over.
The Pick: Cubs/Padres Game 1 Under 7
