Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
AL Wild Card Series Game 1
Tuesday, September 29, 2026
6:08 PM ET, Yankee Stadium
The Yankees are home favorites at -139 in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. Boston sits at +117 on the moneyline. My play is the Under 6.5.
The pitching matchup here is elite on both sides. Cam Schlittler takes the mound for the Yankees, coming off a spectacular season — 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA. Those are Cy Young-caliber numbers. And Schlittler has been specifically dominant against Boston in the regular season. He made four starts against the Red Sox this year, and the Yankees went 3-1 in those games. Never once did he allow more than one earned run in a start against Boston. That’s an established pattern of a starter who owns this specific matchup.
Boston’s Game 1 starter is either Sonny Gray or rookie left-hander Payton Tolle. Gray was 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA and led the Red Sox with 20 quality starts. Tolle went 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA and a fastball that reaches 98 mph. Both are legitimate options that give Boston a real chance in Game 1. Whichever pitcher gets the ball will need to be sharp against a Yankees lineup that has Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, and Cody Bellinger, but neither is going to give up 4+ runs early.
The team pitching numbers matter here. New York finished the regular season No. 1 in MLB in team ERA. Boston finished No. 3. Both bullpens are dominant — Boston is No. 1 in bullpen ERA, New York is No. 2. That’s the two best bullpen units in baseball facing each other in a Game 1 setting. When elite bullpens shut down opposing offenses in the middle innings, the total gets suppressed.
The Boston offensive struggles are a major factor. The Red Sox finished 19th in MLB in OPS during the regular season, but their September was much worse — they were 29th in both OPS and batting average over the last 30 days of the season. That’s an offense that’s cold heading into the postseason, and cold offenses don’t suddenly heat up against elite Yankees pitching in October.
Boston’s lineup faces additional challenges against Schlittler specifically. His pitching mix works against Boston’s approach at the plate — he generates ground balls and weak contact from the Red Sox hitters historically. Even Willson Contreras (returning from a right-hand injury) and Ceddanne Rafaela won’t consistently drive Schlittler’s stuff.
New York’s offense is dangerous but Judge is nursing a calf injury, which could limit his impact. Ben Rice’s 41 September home runs are real power, but he’ll face Gray or Tolle who both throw at the top of the strike zone effectively.
Playoff baseball with elite pitching typically produces low-scoring games. Managers pull relievers based on matchups, defensive shifts are aggressive, and the general pace of play slows. When two teams both feature top-3 team ERAs and top-2 bullpens, run production gets contained.
Realistic outcomes: Yankees 3, Red Sox 2 (5 total); Yankees 4, Red Sox 2 (6 total); Yankees 3, Red Sox 1 (4 total); or Yankees 5, Red Sox 3 (8 total, over). Three of four scenarios stay under 6.5. Only if the Boston offense breaks out of its recent slump does the total push comfortably over.
The Pick: Red Sox/Yankees Game 1 Under 6.5
