Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 11, 2026
4:05 PM ET, SoFi Stadium
Denver is a 3.5-point road favorite over Los Angeles with a total of 42.5. My play is the Chargers getting the points.
The numbers say these teams are closer than their records. The Chargers are 0-4 and the Broncos are 2-2, but Los Angeles ranks 17th in net yards per play at -0.3, and Denver ranks 26th at -0.7. The Broncos are coming off a 24-14 loss at San Francisco, and they haven’t separated from anybody. A road favorite with a worse per-play profile than the home team is a team to fade.
Denver’s secondary is hurting. Pat Surtain II is out with an ankle injury, and Riley Moss is questionable with a rib injury. Losing the best cornerback in the league changes the matchup completely for Justin Herbert, who has had a rough start: 816 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions. Without Surtain, Herbert gets a far easier read on the outside, and Ladd McConkey (questionable, foot) could have room to work if he plays.
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Omarion Hampton can run on this defense. Denver has allowed 571 rushing yards through four games, more than 140 per game. Hampton has 238 yards and three touchdowns and has gone for at least 43 yards in every game. The Broncos are also banged up at linebacker, with Drew Sanders and Dondrea Tillman questionable. A steady ground game lets the Chargers shorten the game and protect Herbert.
Low totals favor the points. The Under is 8-2 in the Chargers’ last 10 games and 6-4 in the last 10 meetings. With a total of 42.5, this projects as a field-goal game, and the hook on 3.5 matters. A Chargers loss by three still cashes.
The risk is the Chargers themselves. Los Angeles is 0-4 against the spread and has lost nine straight games going back to last season. Herbert’s turnovers have killed them, and the offensive line has allowed 12 sacks, with Joe Alt questionable. Jim Harbaugh’s team has to find a way to finish. But Denver is in no position to lay more than a field goal on the road with its top corner out, and the Chargers are the right side in a game this tight.
The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5
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