Memphis Tigers at Tulane Green Wave
Friday, October 16, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Yulman Stadium
Memphis is a 6.5-point road favorite over Tulane with a total of 53.5. My play is Memphis to cover.
On the surface this looks like a classic American Conference rivalry game with a short spread. Under the hood, these are two teams heading in very different directions, and the numbers that best predict who wins college football games all point the same way.
The efficiency gap is enormous
Start with EPA per play, which stands for expected points added. It measures how much each snap changes a team’s chances of scoring, so a 6-yard run on 3rd-and-5 counts for a lot more than a 6-yard run on 3rd-and-15. Adjusted for opponent, Memphis ranks 25th nationally. Tulane ranks 118th. That’s a gap of more than 90 spots in the stat most analysts trust above all others.
Net success rate tells the same story from a different angle. Success rate tracks how often an offense keeps itself on schedule, gaining enough yardage on each down to stay ahead of the chains. “Net” compares a team’s offense against what its defense allows. Memphis is 29th. Tulane is 120th. In plain terms, Memphis consistently wins the down-to-down battle, and Tulane consistently loses it.
Memphis runs the ball, and Tulane can’t stop the run
This is the matchup that decides the game. Memphis averages 247 rushing yards per game, seventh-most in the country, and it’s been relentless lately. Last week the Tigers ran 46 times for 230 yards in a 38-13 win over UAB. Charles Huff’s first Memphis team has averaged 38.5 points per game, and the ground game is the reason.
Tulane’s run defense is giving up 218.6 rushing yards per game. Army just ran for 329 yards on the Green Wave last Saturday, with Cale Hellums alone going for 223, including a 58-yard touchdown run that tied the game late. Army won on a field goal on the final play. When a defense can’t stop a triple-option team that only threw six passes, it’s going to have a hard time with a Memphis offense that runs the ball well and can also throw it.
Marcus Stokes keeps defenses honest
The Memphis passing game is efficient enough that Tulane can’t just crowd the box. Marcus Stokes is completing 70.1% of his passes for 1,535 yards, with 16 touchdowns and three interceptions. A quarterback who completes seven of every 10 throws and rarely gives the ball away makes a run-first offense very hard to defend. Memphis has turned it over only five times all season.
That matters because Tulane’s defense doesn’t create turnovers. The Green Wave have forced one fumble and zero interceptions through five games. A defense that can’t get stops and can’t take the ball away has no way to steal possessions back, and an underdog getting points needs those extra possessions.
Tulane’s offense is still searching
Will Hall’s offense is averaging 18.4 points per game, which ranks 124th nationally, and 180.6 passing yards per game, 118th. The quarterback job has bounced around all season. Houston transfer Zeon Chriss-Gremillion started the opener and was benched. Ball State transfer Kadin Semonza took over and has completed just 53.8% of his passes, though he played reasonably well against Army with 158 yards and a 39-yard touchdown to Jaylin Lucas. Even in that game, Tulane scored 17 points and gained 280 total yards against a defense Memphis would happily trade for.
The risk
There are two real concerns. First, this series has been kind to Tulane against the number, with the Green Wave covering in seven of the last 10 meetings. Second, Memphis ranks 116th in average starting field position, which usually points to special teams or turnover-luck issues and means the Tigers often have to drive the length of the field. A couple of short Tulane fields could keep this closer than the efficiency numbers suggest. Memphis’s run defense also allows 4.9 yards per carry, so it isn’t airtight.
But the core matchup heavily favors the Tigers. Memphis is 4-2 against the spread this season, its only loss came against Boise State, and it brings a top-10 rushing attack into a game against one of the worst run defenses on its schedule. Tulane has shown it can keep games close, but it hasn’t shown it can score enough to stay within a touchdown of an offense this efficient. A 34-20 type of game is the most likely outcome.
The Pick: Memphis Tigers -6.5
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