Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 18, 2026
8:20 PM ET, Lambeau Field (NBC)
Green Bay is a 1.5-point home favorite with the total at 52.5. My play is Packers -1.5.
This line opened with Dallas as a slight favorite. It has flipped. That move is not noise. It is the market pricing what every film room already knows: the Cowboys’ pass defense is a sieve, and Jordan Love just lit up Chicago for 367 yards on 25-of-31 with two touchdowns. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden combined for 266 receiving yards. A comfortable Love is a nightmare, and Dallas is making every quarterback comfortable.
Dallas cannot cover anybody
Opponent passer rating against the Cowboys sits at 120.5 — dead last in the NFL. Zero interceptions through five games. Sack rate ranks 29th. They just gave up 241 rushing yards to Tampa Bay in a 24-16 Thursday night loss and still somehow look worse through the air. Christian Parker was hired to fix a 2025 disaster, Caleb Downs was drafted in the first round, and they traded for Rashan Gary. Through five weeks the results are still putrid. Love is going to see man coverage he can attack and zone windows he can sit in all night.
Green Bay’s own offense has warts. Third-down conversion rate is an ugly 27.6 percent. Red-zone touchdown rate is 50 percent. The run game ranks last in the league and owns negative rushing EPA. MarShawn Lloyd’s 31 yards and two scores against the Bears counted as progress. That is how low the bar sits. Against Dallas, though, even a mediocre ground game finds daylight — the Cowboys allow 5.1 yards per carry and lead the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game.
Prescott still has the weapons. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are as good a receiver pairing as exists in football, and Dallas converts 49.2 percent of third downs with an 83.3 percent red-zone touchdown clip. Dak will move the ball. Jonathan Gannon’s Packers secondary has not been stress-tested by a top receiver duo since Justin Jefferson in Week 1. Green Bay’s pass rush had four sacks against Chicago’s backups; Prescott is a different animal. The Cowboys will score. The problem is they have to outscore a Packers team that just dropped 31 on a division rival and gets to play under the lights at Lambeau.
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Dallas also gets the rest edge — Thursday night losers heading into a Sunday night road game usually enjoy the extra days, and the Cowboys did. Green Bay’s offensive line is stabilizing (Kevin Zeitler could debut at right guard), and Aaron Banks is doubtful with a toe injury. Takeaways decided the Bears game for the Packers (five of them, including three picks). In a game this tight, one Prescott mistake tips it.
Why I could be wrong. A pick’em at Lambeau with two flawed teams is a coin flip dressed up as a spread. If Love’s third-down issues resurface and Dallas’ offense goes nuclear with Lamb and Pickens, the Cowboys walk out with a road win and you are left holding a 1.5-point favorite that never led. Green Bay’s red-zone stagnation (50 percent TD rate) can turn drives into field goals and keep Dallas within a score all night.
Projected score: Packers 28, Cowboys 24.
The Pick: Packers -1.5
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