No. 25 Northwestern at Michigan State
Saturday, October 17, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Northwestern is a 7.5-point road favorite at Michigan State, and the total sits at 48.5. My play is Northwestern -7.5.
David Braun once lived in Pat Fitzgerald’s house. A little before noon on Saturday, he’ll walk across the field at Spartan Stadium to shake hands with the man who gave him his shot. Fitzgerald won 110 games at Northwestern over 17 seasons, after starring there as a two-time All-American linebacker. He was fired in 2023 amid hazing allegations and spent three years out of college football. Now he’s in green and white, and for the first time he has to figure out how to beat the program he built.
Then the other homecoming jogs out of the visitors’ tunnel. Last November, Michigan State benched Aidan Chiles while he was dealing with a foot injury, and Alessio Milivojevic took the job the rest of the way. Chiles left with a turnover habit he couldn’t shake: 14 interceptions and seven fumbles across his time in East Lansing. He comes back as the most accurate passer in the Big Ten, completing 71.4% of his throws, and he still hasn’t thrown an interception. Asked about facing his old team this week, he wasn’t pretending to be calm: “I’m excited… Do I look excited?”
Fitzgerald says “this game’s not about me.” He’s right, just not in the way he means. Saturday comes down to a ranked team with one of the best offenses in the country (ask Penn State, which gave up 413 rushing yards to it) visiting a 2-4 club that can’t run the ball and can’t take it away.
The quarterback MSU benched hasn’t thrown a pick
Under first-year offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, Northwestern runs old-school Wing-T looks with heavy motion, and Chiles is executing it like he’s been running it for years. The Wildcats score 35.4 points per game, and they almost never give the ball away: half a turnover per game, ninth-best in the country. Even Fitzgerald admitted it this week: “the touchdown-to-turnover ratio speaks for itself.”
That’s a problem for a Michigan State defense that ranks 126th in takeaways, forcing one every other game. Underdogs cover by stealing extra possessions. The Spartans don’t steal much, and Northwestern doesn’t leave much lying around.
SP+ and Blue Chip both say this number is too short
Northwestern’s offense ranks third nationally in EPA per play, which measures how many points a team adds on each snap, and fourth in success rate, which means it stays ahead of the chains on almost every series. Michigan State’s defense is 110th in EPA allowed. In plain English, it bleeds.
The other side of the ball is worse. MSU averages 3.3 yards per carry, 112th in the country, and it lost RB Cam Edwards for the season. Jaziun Patterson scored four times against Illinois, but this offense can’t shorten the game and hide its defense, so it’ll be trading possessions with a far better offense.
The power ratings line up. SP+ sees a gap of nearly 17 points between these teams on a neutral field, and Blue Chip’s model makes Northwestern a 12.4-point favorite even after giving MSU home field. The market went the other way, opening around -8.5 and getting bet down a full point toward the emotional home dog. Better team, cheaper price. Easy call.
One more thing to watch: reports had several Spartan linebackers and corners going down against Illinois. Fitzgerald said there were no long-term injuries, so keep an eye on the Big Ten availability report. If those players sit, this gets uglier.
The case for the Spartans, and it isn’t nothing
Northwestern has dropped four straight Big Ten road games, and this is only its second trip away from home all year. The Wildcats’ defense can be pushed around too. It sits in the bottom third nationally in success rate allowed and ranks 105th on third downs, and the secondary is already thin, with CB Josh Fussell out and Braden Turner questionable on last week’s report.
Milivojevic was sharp against Illinois, completing a career-high 85% of his passes in a 38-37 overtime loss that was the Spartans’ best offensive day of the season. MSU also has a field-position weapon in punter Rhys Dakin, who leads the Big Ten at 51.6 yards a boot, while Northwestern’s punting has been a weak spot. And this team plays with emotion. Fitzgerald admitted “I do have a passion problem” after the Illinois game, and a “Go Green, Wear White” crowd will feed every bit of it.
That can keep it close for a half. Four quarters is a lot to ask against a quarterback who doesn’t give the ball away.
Scoreboard prediction: Northwestern 33, Michigan State 20. Chiles gets the last word, and the Wildcats clear the number by more than a field goal.
The Pick: Northwestern -7.5
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