Butterfield Bermuda Championship Preview
Thursday, October 22, 2026
6:30 AM ET, Port Royal Golf Course, Southampton, Bermuda
Ben James is the +1175 favorite at DraftKings for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, with Corey Conners next at +2350 and a winning score that has landed anywhere from 12-under to 24-under in this event’s seven-year history. My play is Seamus Power to win at +2450.
Bermuda doesn’t care about your world ranking. It cares whether you can hold a 235-yard tee shot against an ocean crosswind, then save par when you don’t. Last year the wind turned Sunday into a survival test. The field averaged 73.11 in the final round, and Adam Schenk won at 12-under by grinding out 16 pars. That’s the tournament I expect again, and it’s exactly the kind Power was built for.
Driver stays in the bag, the par 3s decide it
Port Royal is a 6,828-yard par 71, short enough that length barely matters. The trouble lives on the back nine. Last year the 412-yard 15th played as the hardest hole on the course, and the two 235-yard par 3s, the 13th and the 16th, ranked second and third. Meanwhile the two par 5s, the 7th and the 17th, were the two easiest holes. So the week comes down to stealing birdies on the par 5s and surviving that closing stretch.
The weather is going to make that harder. The Bermuda Weather Service has west-southwest wind on Thursday that could build to moderate-to-strong by the evening, then a turn to the north-northeast that picks up Friday night. Longer-range models keep it windy into the weekend. Wind makes this a short-game event, not a bombers’ event.
Power has the keys to this place
Power has played Port Royal six times and made the cut all six times. He won here in 2022 at 19-under, finished T12, T23 and T11 in his other recent trips, and he’s still the only player to birdie the 16th three times in one tournament. When something works that well somewhere, I keep betting it.
His 2026 numbers fit the course, too. He ranks third on Tour in par-3 scoring, first in scrambling from 10 to 20 yards, and second in hitting greens from 100 to 125 yards. That’s a wedge-and-scrambling player on a course full of wedges, tough par 3s and missed greens.
He’s also arriving hot. Power went T7 at 20-under in Asheville, then T21 in Utah with back-to-back bogey-free weekend rounds. He’s 39 and still fighting to lock up full status for next season, so this isn’t a week he’s coasting through. At 24-1, that’s a number I’ll happily take.
Three longer prices that already know the way around
Andrew Novak (+2700). He was runner-up here in 2024 after sharing the 54-hole lead, and he tied the event record with a front-nine 29 that week. He’s gained more than two strokes per round on the field over his last eight measured rounds. The catch is the putter. Over his last 24 rounds he ranks dead last in putting among the 122 players tracked, so you’re betting on his ball striking carrying him.
Kevin Roy (+3400). Roy was T8 here in 2023 and hasn’t missed a cut since early July, finishing T13 in Japan last time out. He’s been one of the steadiest ball strikers in the fall, ranking 18th of 122 over his last 24 rounds, and he ranks fifth on Tour in first-round scoring average, so he tends to start fast.
Takumi Kanaya (+5200). He finished T3 here last year in that brutal wind. His irons can be loose, but he’s second on Tour in scrambling and makes 98.4% of his putts inside five feet. When the wind blows, saving par is the whole game, and Kanaya does it as well as anyone in this field.
The favorite I’m passing on
Ben James is the real deal. The former Virginia star has finished 3rd at the Wyndham, 2nd in Asheville and T5 in Utah, and he’s gaining close to six strokes per tournament on the field. I still don’t want him at +1175. That price says he wins this about 8% of the time, and he’s never played Port Royal. Each of the last four Bermuda champions had already played the course before they won. Admire the talent, but don’t pay that price for it.
The case against me
Power isn’t a great driver. Over his last 24 rounds he ranks 107th of 122 players off the tee and is only about average on approach, so his putter and short game have to carry him. If the wind lays down, this turns into the 2023 birdie fest Camilo Villegas won at 24-under, and that favors elite iron players like Conners. The draw matters too. If Thursday’s wind really does build late, the afternoon wave could be a shot or two behind before Friday starts.
Projected finish: Power wins at 14-under, a shot ahead of Novak, with Roy and Kanaya in the top 10.
The Pick: Seamus Power to win (+2450)
Value plays: Andrew Novak (+2700), Kevin Roy (+3400), Takumi Kanaya (+5200)
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