New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Thursday, October 22, 2026
8:15 PM ET, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Prime Video)
The Chicago Bears are 3-point favorites over the New England Patriots, and the total is 50.5. My play is Under 50.5 (-105 at DraftKings).
The market watched both teams light up the scoreboard Sunday and decided Thursday night is going to be a track meet. I think it’s looking at the wrong weekend. This total opened in the high 40s and has climbed to 50.5, and SportsBettingDime’s early splits showed 61% of the tickets on the Over. The two offenses taking the field Thursday are in worse shape than the ones that played Sunday.
I get the appeal. It’s Caleb Williams vs. Drake Maye, No. 1 vs. No. 3 from the 2024 draft, and Ben Johnson vs. Mike Vrabel, the coaching matchup New England fans argued about all through the 2025 hiring cycle. Maye has thrown three or more TD passes in three straight games, something no Patriot had done since Tom Brady in 2014. It sounds like a shootout. It sets up like a grind.
The total went up while the injury report filled up
New England lost three offensive linemen in Sunday’s 26-19 win over the Jets: right tackle Morgan Moses, left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker and right guard Ben Brown, who was already filling in for two guards on IR. Neither team actually practiced Monday, just walkthroughs, but on the estimated report Vera-Tucker and Brown were listed as non-participants and Moses as limited. Vrabel put it bluntly: “We’ll just have to figure out who we have available and find 48 to put out there.”
The receivers are hurting too. Leading receiver Romeo Doubs went to IR Monday with a shoulder injury, and A.J. Brown (ankle) was estimated as limited after catching 3 of 10 targets with three drops Sunday. Chicago isn’t whole on offense either. Right guard Jonah Jackson, one of PFF’s top-graded guards, and running back Kyle Monangai (turf toe) were both listed as non-participants Monday.
Soldier Field is where opposing offenses go to stall
In three games at Soldier Field, the Bears are allowing 9.3 points and 217 yards a game, and opponents are converting just 17% of their third downs. All three went Under.
Yes, Chicago gives up some long completions, 8.4 yards per pass, which ranks 31st. But it ranks third in pass success rate. In plain English, the Bears win most of the individual snaps and force offenses to string together long drives.
That’s a tough ask for a Patriots line that could start three backups on a three-day turnaround against the league’s second-best sack rate. Kyler Gordon came off PUP last week and blitzed from the slot for three sacks and two forced fumbles in 17 snaps. Dennis Allen admitted it’s “on tape now.” Sure, but New England gets three days and a walkthrough to solve it.
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Ben Johnson would rather bleed the clock than race you
Chicago leads the NFL in rushing and holds the ball about 36 minutes a night, so Bears opponents are running just 50 plays a game. In Atlanta, the Bears had it for 40:08. Fewer snaps mean fewer possessions for both sides, and that’s how a game stays well short of 51.
New England’s offense also hasn’t traveled well. It scores 15 points a game on the road and has turned it over 13 times, second-most in the league. Even during the win streak, the offense was sputtering by Sunday. Maye said so himself: “It was sloppy. It wasn’t clean.” Add a Patriots kicker, Andy Borregales, listed as a non-participant (personal) Monday and a Bears kicking game at 72.7% on field goals, and drives that stall may not even come away with three.
How this blows up on me
A couple of long throws could do it. Chicago’s coverage gives up chunk plays, Maye is seeing the field well, and New England has gone Over in three straight. Williams worries me too. He looked like he never left in his return from a hamstring tear, completing 30 of 36 passes in Atlanta and going a perfect 26-for-26 when he wasn’t pressured. The Patriots’ secondary is thin, with Carlton Davis III (neck) a Monday non-participant and two more corners limited. Chicago’s defense is missing Montez Sweat (suspended) and Dayo Odeyingbo (IR). A turnover-fueled short field could flip the math, and the forecast (60 degrees, light wind, no rain) does the Under no favors. These are also Monday estimates. If New England’s linemen practice fully this week, my edge shrinks.
Final score projection
Chicago controls the clock, Gordon and the pass rush get after a patched-up line, and both offenses settle for field goals more than once. I’ve got Bears 24, Patriots 20, a 44-point game that lands comfortably under. I’d still play it at 49.5, and if you can find 51 at a fair price, even better.
The Pick: Under 50.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
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