Michigan State at UCLA
Saturday, October 24, 2026
3:30 PM ET, Rose Bowl, Pasadena
UCLA is a 14-point favorite with a total of 44.5, and my play is Under 44.5.
Three games ago, UCLA was giving up 24 points a game. In the three games since, it has allowed 8.3. That one number tells you who the Bruins are now. This isn’t the team that rolled out of preseason unranked. It’s a defense with an offense attached, and Saturday the offense is attached to a backup quarterback.
The Bruins turned into a brick wall overnight. First-year coach Bob Chesney has UCLA at 6-0 for the first time since 2022, and the defense is the reason it’s sitting at No. 9. Over that three-game stretch, yards allowed fell from 395.7 a game to 222.3. On the season, opponents are converting just 25.9 percent of their third downs. By EPA per play, which measures how much each snap helps or hurts a team’s scoring chances, the Bruins rank second in the country on defense. They also rank ninth in success rate allowed, so offenses can’t even stay on schedule against them, never mind break off big plays.
Michigan State is the last offense you’d want to send into that. The Spartans rank 130th in the country in yards per play. That’s not a typo. They score 21.3 points a game, run for just 119.1 yards a game, and have failed to reach 100 rushing yards three times. Alessio Milivojevic has been steady enough, with seven touchdowns and three picks, but he doesn’t have a running game to lean on. Now he’s flying across the country to face a defense that just held Wisconsin to seven points.
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Ty Dieffenbach isn’t Nico, and UCLA knows it. Nico Iamaleava is done for the season with a severe knee injury suffered at Oregon. “It’s severe,” Chesney said Monday. Dieffenbach was solid against Wisconsin, going 22-of-33 for 264 yards, but look at what’s happened to the ground game since Iamaleava went down. UCLA carried 47 times for 140 yards at Oregon and 37 times for 120 against Wisconsin. That’s a long way from the 231 rushing yards a game the Bruins are averaging on the season. Wayne Knight is still a load at 6.8 yards a carry, and with a backup under center, the smart play is to lean on him, shorten the game, and let the defense win it. That’s how you end up with scores like 17-15 and 17-7, which is exactly what UCLA’s last two games looked like.
The Spartans’ defense is a mess, but it’s not a track meet. Michigan State gives up 25.4 points a game and played Northwestern without four cornerbacks and three linebackers. That’s the real risk here, and I’ll get to it. But Pat Fitzgerald’s group did sack Aidan Chiles five times last week, and MSU doesn’t play fast enough to turn this into a shootout. The under has cashed in five of Michigan State’s seven games this season. The market has noticed too. This total opened at 47.5 and has been pushed down to 44.5.
Here’s how this under goes sideways. If Michigan State’s banged-up secondary can’t cover anybody, Dieffenbach could carve it up the way he did Wisconsin, and a UCLA blowout pushes this over on its own. Something like 38-10 gets there. A defensive or special teams touchdown, or a short field off a turnover, can ruin an under without either offense doing much. And Michigan State has covered seven of its last 10, so these Spartans don’t always fold. I’ll live with that. To get over 44.5, UCLA’s backup-led offense would have to have its best day in weeks, and Michigan State’s offense would have to show up against a top-10 defense. I’m not betting on both.
Projected score: UCLA 24, Michigan State 13. Knight grinds the clock, the Bruins move to 7-0, and nobody needs a calculator.
The Pick: Under 44.5
Bet on a quiet afternoon in Pasadena. If you’re new to MyBookie Sportsbook, make a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100 and it gets matched with a 100% REAL CASH bonus. Put some of it on the Under 44.5 and save the rest for Saturday night.
