California at SMU
Saturday, October 24, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Gerald J. Ford Stadium
SMU is a 20-point favorite (19.5 to 20.5 depending on the shop) with a total of 54.5. My play is California +20.
Last Saturday, Cal got boatraced 41-7 at home by Wake Forest, and the betting market responded the way it always does: it panicked. This line opened SMU -16.5 and has been pushed to 20 and beyond. I’m happy to take the other side of that overreaction, because the team laying the points has spent the entire season winning ugly.
SMU’s motto is “survive and advance,” and that’s not a typo. Rhett Lashlee said it himself this week, and he wasn’t joking. The Mustangs are 5-1, but their biggest win over an FBS opponent is 10 points. They beat Missouri State by 10 as a 30.5-point favorite. They beat Boston College by nine laying 21.5. Last week they led Virginia 13-10 at halftime before winning 23-13. Add it up and SMU is 1-3-2 against the spread, and the only cover came against FCS UC Davis. This is a good team that just doesn’t step on throats.
The offense is steady, not a fireworks show. Kevin Jennings has turned into exactly what Lashlee wants, a “boring quarterback in a good way.” He hasn’t turned it over in two games and ranks 13th nationally in expected points added per dropback, which is a fancy way of saying he makes good decisions. Kendrick Raphael just ran for 124 yards. But SMU ranks 125th in explosiveness, meaning its successful plays rarely turn into home runs. Teams that move the ball 7 yards at a time take a long time to build a 21-point lead.
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Cal gets its quarterback back, and SMU remembers him. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele missed time with a concussion, Jackson Brousseau started the last two games, and the offense fell off a cliff against Wake (81 passing yards from Brousseau). Tosh Lupoi won’t name a starter, but everyone expects Sagapolutele, who went 15 of 18 in relief last week. Lashlee called him “one of the better quarterbacks in our league and the country,” and he has reason to: Sagapolutele threw for 330 yards and four touchdowns when Cal stunned SMU 38-35 in last year’s finale. He hasn’t played like a future first-rounder this year, but he’s a clear upgrade on what we saw Saturday.
Why I could be wrong. Cal’s offense is bad, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. By opponent-adjusted efficiency it ranks 131st, its offensive line ranks 136th in line yards, and SMU’s front ranks 16th in havoc plays. If the Bears can’t block, Sagapolutele spends the day running for his life. Cal’s run defense is also a sieve (133rd in rushing efficiency allowed), so Raphael could have a monster day. And Cal is 2-5 ATS for a reason. There’s also a revenge angle, with SMU 10-0 in ACC home games since joining the league. If the Mustangs finally get their blowout, this is the spot.
The bottom line. You’re getting three extra points of panic tax on a team with a better quarterback coming back, against a favorite that hasn’t covered a big number all season. The models I trust land at SMU by about 16 to 18.5, which is a little under the price. SMU wins. I just don’t trust it to win by three touchdowns.
Projected score: SMU 31, California 17
The Pick: California +20
Take the points and let SMU sweat out another one. Opening a new account first? MyBookie Sportsbook gives new players a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100, which makes that California +20 ticket a lot easier to fire.
