Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 25, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
The Cleveland Browns are 1.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans, and the total is 37.5. My play is Under 37.5 (-108 at FanDuel).
“We don’t do anything (on offense), and then all of a sudden we get enough stops. All of a sudden we figure it out.” That’s Browns coach Todd Monken, after a win. Read it again. That’s the head coach of a first-place team describing his offense, and it tells you everything you need to know about this game.
Cleveland is 4-2 with a punt team doing most of the heavy lifting
The Browns beat Baltimore 13-10 on Andre Szmyt’s field goal as time expired, their second walk-off kick in three weeks. It was fun. It was also ugly. NFL.com tracked 31 straight Cleveland possessions from the second half of the Pittsburgh game through that winning kick: 17 punts and two touchdowns. They’ve topped 300 yards of offense once all season.
Deshaun Watson has a knack for the fourth quarter, but he spends the first three getting buried. He was sacked eight times by the Jets and five more by the Ravens, and Cleveland’s 12.1% sack rate is the worst in the league. The ground game doesn’t bail him out either. Judge every carry by whether it actually moved Cleveland closer to points, which is what EPA does, and the Browns’ run game ranks 31st, and Quinshon Judkins (ankle) is questionable.
Tennessee finally won, and its offense still barely showed up
Give Robert Saleh his flowers. His Titans rallied from 13-0 down at Indianapolis to win 26-20 and get him his first win as Tennessee’s head coach. Now look at how they did it. Cam Ward threw for 102 yards, and the Titans had three first downs at halftime. The comeback came from the defense and special teams: three takeaways, a long punt return and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Jeffery Simmons said the dam “was eventually going to break, and you have to get one before you get two.” Sure, but the offense can’t count on the special teams to score every week.
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Tennessee ranks last in the league at 236 yards a game, and its 5.6 yards per pass attempt is second-worst. At Nissan Stadium it’s been even uglier: 10 points against the Jets, 20 against the Eagles and 3 against Houston.
Two pass rushes, two shaky lines, and very few clean pockets
Here’s the matchup that keeps this game in the 30s. Cleveland’s defense is the real thing. It ranks fifth in pass success rate allowed, which means opposing quarterbacks rarely stay on schedule, and it holds teams to a touchdown on just 43.8% of red zone trips, also fifth. Ward is about to see a lot of it. On the other side, Tennessee’s pass rush is top-10 by sack rate and just teed off on Daniel Jones. Put it against the league’s most sack-prone offense and drives die early.
Both offenses rank in the bottom four in points per play. The market already knows some of this. The total opened 40.5 and has dropped to 37.5. But 75% of the tickets are still on the Over, and I think the number is still too high for this matchup.
The case against me
Ugly offenses don’t stop non-offensive touchdowns. Tennessee just scored one on a blocked punt, and a pick-six or a fumble return wrecks a total like this in a hurry. Watson has been clutch late, and Cleveland’s defense is banged up: DT Mason Graham (knee) and Mike Hall Jr. (ankle) are questionable, and safety Grant Delpit is in the concussion protocol. Tennessee’s secondary is also hurting, with safeties Kevin Winston Jr. and Tony Adams questionable. The Browns commit 9.2 penalties a game, third-most, and flags keep drives alive. And yes, last December these two combined for 60 in a 31-29 Titans win in Cleveland.
How I see it playing out
Lots of punts, a couple of field goals, and one Watson drive in the fourth quarter that makes everybody forget the first three. Browns 19, Titans 13. I’d play the Under down to 37. At 36.5 it’s a lean, and at 35.5 or lower I’m passing.
The Pick: Under 37.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
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