Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 25, 2026
1:00 PM ET, M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore is favored by 2.5 to 3 points over Cincinnati with a total around 51. My play is Bengals +3.
Every question about this game starts with one word: Wednesday. That’s when Jesse Minter said we’d “know a lot more” about Lamar Jackson, who hasn’t practiced since spraining his left ankle against Tennessee on October 4. The first-year Ravens coach is still calling it “kind of the day-to-day thing.” Day-to-day has now covered two full games and half of another. I’m not waiting around to find out, because Cincinnati is the right side either way.
The quarterback gap is real, and it cuts one way
When Lamar plays, he’s a cheat code. He leads every quarterback with at least 25 attempts at 10.1 yards per throw. Tyler Huntley has been tidy, with three touchdowns and zero picks, but he’s averaging 6.0 yards per attempt, 35th out of 43 qualifiers. Last week in Cleveland the Ravens scored on their first two drives and then nothing, finishing with 235 total yards in a 13-10 loss. Even if Jackson suits up, a quarterback who hasn’t practiced in nearly three weeks and is playing on a sore ankle isn’t the guy who was ripping off 10 yards a throw in September.
Meanwhile, Joe Burrow walks in fresh off a bye with a basically healthy roster. Just about every Bengal got some work in at Monday’s practice, per SI’s All Bengals. Burrow is completing passes well above what’s expected of him, and the Bengals convert 50% of their third downs, second best in the league. Baltimore’s defense is middle of the pack on those downs, and Minter himself wants his secondary to be “a little more aggressive and tighter in coverage” after Jerry Jeudy ran free for the 33-yard catch that set up Cleveland’s winning kick.
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There’s a revenge subplot too. Trey Hendrickson, the former Bengal, came back from a finger injury last week and posted eight pressures and a sack. He’ll be hunting Burrow. That’s a real problem, but Burrow gets sacked on just 4.6% of his dropbacks, seventh lowest in the league, and having Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to throw to makes it easier to get the ball out fast.
The market agrees the Ravens are shakier than usual. This opened Baltimore -3.5 and has slid to -2.5 at most books, with ESPN’s matchup predictor actually giving Cincinnati a 54% chance to win outright. Grab the full field goal while it’s still out there.
What could go wrong
Derrick Henry. The Bengals give up 5.0 yards per carry, 30th in the league, and opponents convert 46% of their third downs against them. Henry leads the NFL with 130 carries and has seven rushing touchdowns at age 32. If Baltimore just hands it to him 25 times, it can shorten the game and protect whichever quarterback is under center. And if Jackson practices fully Wednesday and Thursday, this line will jump, and the Ravens will look like a different team than the one that managed 13 points in Cleveland. Baltimore’s kicker has also missed three of 13 field goals, which can help or hurt a +3 ticket in a game this close.
Projected score: Bengals 24, Ravens 23
The Pick: Bengals +3
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