Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Sunday, October 25, 2026
1:00 PM ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
The New York Jets are 4.5-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins, and the total is 39.5. My play is Jets -4.5 (-115 at bet365).
Nobody wants to lay points with a 2-4 team that keeps finding new ways to lose late. I get it. But this is the one week the Jets’ schedule hands them a team that’s worse at the exact things they’re good at, and I’m not going to overthink it.
Miami is still looking for a pulse. The Dolphins are winless under first-year coach Jeff Hafley, and they’ve been outscored by 62 points. In four of their five losses, they failed to top 13. The bye week was supposed to bring clarity, and Hafley came out of it talking about patience and a foundation that’s still being laid. That’s honest. It’s also what coaches say when the house isn’t built yet. Malik Willis didn’t throw during the off week because of a minor issue, but Hafley said, “I foresee him being good to go.” Good to go still means a quarterback completing 56% of his passes, the worst rate in the league, behind a line that gives up a sack on almost one of every ten dropbacks.
The Jets’ defense is built for this. New York is allowing 20.3 points a game, seventh-best in the NFL, and it’s been at its best against the run. By EPA, which measures how much each snap helps or hurts a team’s scoring chances, the Jets rank fourth in run defense. That matters because running the ball is the only thing Miami does well. The Dolphins average 4.9 yards a carry, fifth in the league. Take that away and you’re asking Willis to win from behind against a pass rush led by David Bailey, who already has five sacks.
The BEST 2026 Football Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
Geno gets a get-right defense. Here’s the part that sold me. Miami’s pass defense isn’t just bad. It’s historically generous. Opponents complete 76.6% of their throws against the Dolphins, dead last, and convert more than half their third downs. Geno Smith has been steady all year: 1,336 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception. The Jets throw the ball to their own guys, which sounds like a low bar until you watch Miami. Garrett Wilson should have room, and rookie Omar Cooper Jr. just caught a 48-yard touchdown in his first game back from injury.
Why I could be wrong. The Jets’ red zone offense is a crime scene. They score touchdowns on 37.5% of their trips inside the 20, worst in the league, and they went 0-for-3 there in the 26-19 loss at New England. Field goals instead of touchdowns is how a favorite wins by three and still loses your bet.
Miami also had 14 days to prepare, gets rookie receiver Caleb Douglas back from an ankle injury, and swept the Jets last season, including a 34-10 win at MetLife. Breece Hall (quad) is questionable, and the market has already moved two full points toward New York, so the cheap number is gone. Aaron Glenn admitted, “I don’t think anybody feels good about being 2-4.” A team like that can tighten up at home.
The bottom line. Miami’s schedule has been brutal, but the Dolphins still sit dead last in TeamRankings’ predictive ratings, about five points worse than the Jets before home field. New York’s defense takes away Miami’s ground game, and Smith picks apart the league’s softest secondary. I have it Jets 24, Dolphins 16. I’d lay it up to -5.5. At -6 or -6.5 it’s a lean, and if it reaches -7 I’m out. If you can find -5 at a better price, like -106 at Caesars, that works too.
The Pick: Jets -4.5 (-115 at bet365)
Back the Jets to finally finish one and bring some extra bankroll into Sunday. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet the Jets -4.5 and the rest of your Week 7 NFL picks.
