Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 25, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
The Carolina Panthers are 3.5-point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the total is 44.5. My play is Under 44.5 (-108 at BetMGM).
All week, Tampa will obsess over Baker Mayfield’s right thumb. I’m more interested in the scoreboard. The Bucs haven’t topped 24 points in any of their last five games, and Mayfield started two of them.
Mayfield dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand in Week 3 against Minnesota, has missed three games, and tried to practice last week but couldn’t grip the ball. Todd Bowles said he’s “supposed to practice Wednesday,” but the Bucs are game-planning as if undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes a fourth straight start. Dave Canales isn’t buying it: “Knowing Baker, if he’s got a chance to play, he’s going to play.” Fine by me. This pick doesn’t need to know who takes the snaps.
Pick a quarterback, any quarterback
Tampa Bay ranks 31st in the league in EPA per pass, which is a fancy way of saying its passing plays are hurting the team more than almost anyone’s. Here’s the part that should end the QB debate: among 33 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season, Daniels ranks 29th in EPA per dropback and Mayfield ranks dead last.
The protection is a mess too. Tampa quarterbacks get sacked on more than 10% of their dropbacks, 30th in the league, and the Bucs score touchdowns on fewer than half of their red-zone trips. That’s how you lead Pittsburgh 16-3 heading into the fourth quarter and still lose in overtime. Bowles summed up last Sunday’s collapse simply: “We’ve got no margin for error.”
The Bucs defense is why this stays ugly
Here’s the thing about a 1-5 team: this one can still defend. Tampa ranks fourth in EPA allowed per play and gives up just 3.4 yards per carry, second-best in the NFL. Chuba Hubbard ran for 120 yards in Philadelphia last week. He’s about to find a lot less room.
That puts the game on Bryce Young’s arm, and to be fair, he’s been terrific. He’s thrown 11 touchdowns against two interceptions and ranks seventh in EPA per dropback. But Tampa’s pass defense ranks seventh by EPA, so this isn’t a soft spot he gets to pick apart for four quarters.
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Tampa’s only good plan burns clock
The one thing Tampa does well on offense is run it. Bucky Irving and company rank sixth in yards per carry, and they’re about to meet the defense that allows more yards per rush than anyone in the league. With a shaky quarterback and a coach who can’t afford another meltdown, I expect Tampa to hand it off, move the chains slowly and punt. That’s a lot of clock and not many points.
The books are already shading this game low. Tampa’s team total sits at 20.5 and Carolina’s at 23.5, and I think both look a little high.
Where this goes sideways
Carolina’s two home games have been track meets, a 59-37 loss to Chicago and a 32-26 win over Detroit. Antoine Winfield Jr. is listed as doubtful with a rib injury, which takes the brains out of Tampa’s secondary. Daniels has also thrown five interceptions in limited work, and one bad throw in his own end hands Carolina a cheap touchdown. If Mayfield returns with a healthy grip, Tampa’s ceiling goes up too. And with 63 degrees and no rain in the forecast, the weather won’t do the Under any favors.
How I see it finishing
Carolina makes enough throws to win, Tampa grinds out a couple of long drives that end in field goals, and nobody in Charlotte needs a calculator. I’ve got Panthers 23, Buccaneers 16. I’d play the Under down to 43.5. At 43, it’s just a lean, and I’d pass at 42.5 or lower.
The Pick: Under 44.5 (-108 at BetMGM)
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